037
FXAK67 PAJK 270559
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
959 PM AKDT SAT JUL 26 2025
UPDATE
UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 230 PM AKDT
SHORT TERM...A NEAR GALE FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
IN THE GULF, BRINGING HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS IN THE GULF AND A BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT HAS
LARGELY STAYED OFFSHORE. THE LONE AREA TO NOT DODGE THIS WAS
YAKUTAT, WHICH SAW LIGHT RAIN START EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH BEFORE PULLING OUT COMPLETELY ALONG WITH MOST OF THE
CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD
CRAWL.
OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE LOW BECOMING ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUD COVER FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE PANHANDLE, ALLOWING FOR LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS
WITH COOLER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY,
BUT ALSO WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THIS FURTHER CLEARING
OF CLOUDS WILL ALSO MEAN AREAS THAT SAW FOG SATURDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY SEE IT ONCE MORE, THOUGH SOME DRYING SHOULD LIMIT ITS
EXTENT SUNDAY MORNING. LATER ON SUNDAY FOR THE INNER CHANNELS,
THERMAL TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR MEANS SEA BREEZES IN THE
USUAL AREAS. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KT OR
LESS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLARENCE STRAIT WHICH COULD REACH
UPWARDS OF 15 KTS NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE.
ALL AND ALL A RELATIVELY QUIET END TO THE WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR
THE PANHANDLE WITH RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. FOR MORE ON
WHAT TO EXPECT EARLY NEXT WEEK, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGES TO THE RELATIVELY STAGNANT PATTERN THAT IS MONDAY
ONWARDS. THE BROAD CLOSED LOW, LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL GULF, LOOKS TO
STAY IN A BLOCKING PATTERN, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED AT
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THIS
FLOW, WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY RAINMAKERS FOR TUESDAY ONWARDS.
WHILE THERE IS HIGH FREEZING LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY DEEP WITH PW AROUND
AN INCH COMING INTO THE PANHANDLE, NOT LOOKING AT MUCH PRECIPITATION
DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM WEAK WINDS. THEN,
WITH THE TERRAIN IN THE PANHANDLE, EXPECTING ANY HIGHER RAINFALL
TO COLLAPSE AS IT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM THE WAVES SHEARING
APART. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ON THE WESTERN COAST OF
POW ISLAND FOR THIS REASON, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION INLAND. GOING
WITH THIS IDEA, CURRENTLY HAVE MUCH REDUCED POPS FROM ABOUT KAKE
NORTHWARD, LESS THAN 50% FOR MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION IN 6 HOURS.
CONSIDER THIS TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH THE ONLY
AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY APPRECIATIVE RAIN CHANCES BEING HAINES AND
SKAGWAY AT LESS THAN 20%.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 06Z MONDAY/...MOST OF THE PANHANDLE IS STARTING
OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION TO PAYA WHERE THERE IS
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THE FRONT OVER
THE GULF THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS & DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME MORE PATCHY FG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT & INTO THE
MORNING FOR THE PAPG, PAWG, & PAKW AREAS WITH CIG & VIS CONDITIONS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY RANGE. THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE LOOKS TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING FROM THE
LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO PRODUCE SOME SEA BREEZES BUT THEY WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT.
MARINE...
INSIDE WATERS: DUE TO POSITION OF THE LOW FAR REMOVED FROM THE
OUTER COAST, WINDS ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT. EXCEPTIONS ARE SOME GAP FLOW WINDS ALONG BACKSIDE OF
DOUGLAS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WHICH COULD
REACH UPWARDS OF 15 KT, AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW COMING UP
CLARENCE STRAIT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH LYNN CANAL LIKELY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO DRAINAGE
WINDS COMING DOWN THE VALLEYS AND THE OVERALL WEAK GRADIENT OVER
THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OUTSIDE WATERS: THE NEAR GALE FORCE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND
TAKES UP STATION THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND TURN NORTHERLY,
WHILE ELSEWHERE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE PRIMARILY
EASTERLY. AREA OF 10 - 12 FT SEAS IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW WHILE SUBSIDING TO 8 - 10 FT. SEAS WILL
THEN FURTHER DIMINISH OVERALL AS THE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF
CONTINUES TO DEGRADE INTO TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...ABJ
MARINE...STJ
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