814
FXAK67 PAJK 271303
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
503 AM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2025
SHORT TERM
A MATURE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHERN GULF
EARLY SUNDAY, WHILE STARTING WEAKEN. THE VISUAL ON THE MATURE LOW
HAS MULTIPLE WRAPS THAT ITS HAS CINNAMON ROLL APPEARANCE. THE
OUTER PRECIPITATION BAND IS OFF SHORE THE PANHANDLE AND WILL
LIKELY STAY THERE FOR SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE WRAPPING ABOUT THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SPREAD A ENERGY A BIT FURTHER EAST THAT
WILL TRY TO SPREAD RAIN BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY.
OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE LOW BECOMING ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUD COVER FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE PANHANDLE, ALLOWING FOR LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS
WITH COOLER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY, BUT ALSO WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. LATER ON
SUNDAY FOR THE INNER CHANNELS, THERMAL TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR
MEANS SEA BREEZES IN THE USUAL AREAS. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLARENCE
STRAIT WHICH COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 15 KTS NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN NORTH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THAT WILL BE DRIFTING TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS GOT TO ABOUT
THE BORDER WITH THE REMAINING CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN AREA
THIS MORNING AND EVEN A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES FOR THE HAINES AREA.
ALL AND ALL A RELATIVELY QUIET END TO THE WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR
THE PANHANDLE WITH RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. FOR MORE ON
WHAT TO EXPECT EARLY NEXT WEEK, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGES TO THE RELATIVELY STAGNANT PATTERN THAT IS MONDAY
ONWARDS. THE BROAD CLOSED LOW, LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL GULF, LOOKS TO
STAY IN A BLOCKING PATTERN, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED AT
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THIS
FLOW, WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY RAINMAKERS FOR TUESDAY ONWARDS.
WHILE THERE IS HIGH FREEZING LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY DEEP WITH PW AROUND
AN INCH COMING INTO THE PANHANDLE, NOT LOOKING AT MUCH PRECIPITATION
DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM WEAK WINDS. THEN,
WITH THE TERRAIN IN THE PANHANDLE, EXPECTING ANY HIGHER RAINFALL
TO COLLAPSE AS IT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM THE WAVES SHEARING
APART. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ON THE WESTERN COAST OF
POW ISLAND FOR THIS REASON, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION INLAND. GOING
WITH THIS IDEA, CURRENTLY HAVE MUCH REDUCED POPS FROM ABOUT KAKE
NORTHWARD, LESS THAN 50% FOR MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION IN 6 HOURS.
CONSIDER THIS TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH THE ONLY
AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY APPRECIATIVE RAIN CHANCES BEING HAINES AND
SKAGWAY AT LESS THAN 20%.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z MONDAY/
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE IS VFR
WITH THE EXCEPTION TO PAYA WHERE THERE IS MVFR, TO POTENTIALLY
IFR, CIGS FROM THE DECAYING FRONT OVER THE GULF SATURDAY EVENING;
VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE PANHANDLE, VFR PREVAILS SUNDAY,
WITH WINDS INCREASING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING FROM THE LACK OF
CLOUD COVER TO PRODUCE SOME SEA BREEZES BUT THEY WILL BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15KT.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: DUE TO POSITION OF THE LOW FAR REMOVED FROM THE
OUTER COAST, WINDS ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT. EXCEPTIONS ARE SOME GAPFLOW WINDS ALONG BACKSIDE OF DOUGLAS
AS WELL AS LOCALIZED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WHICH COULD REACH
UPWARDS OF 15 KT, AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW COMING UP CLARENCE
STRAIT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LYNN CANAL
LIKELY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO DRAINAGE WINDS COMING
DOWN THE VALLEYS AND THE OVERALL WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.
OUTSIDE WATERS: THE QUASI STATIONARY LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
SUNDAY AS IT SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. WIND SPEED IN THE
EASTERN GULF ARE 20 TO 25 KT WHILE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
15 TO 20 KT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND TURN NORTHERLY, WHILE
ELSEWHERE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE PRIMARILY EASTERLY.
AREA OF 5-7 FT SEAS IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD .
SEAS WILL THEN FURTHER DIMINISH OVERALL AS THE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF CONTINUES TO DEGRADE INTO TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...BEZENEK
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