821
FXAK67 PAJK 271728
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
928 AM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2025
UPDATE
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE THE 18Z TAF
UPDATE.
SHORT TERM
A MATURE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHERN
GULF EARLY SUNDAY, WHILE STARTING WEAKEN. THE VISUAL ON THE MATURE
LOW HAS MULTIPLE WRAPS THAT ITS HAS CINNAMON ROLL APPEARANCE. THE
OUTER PRECIPITATION BAND IS OFF SHORE THE PANHANDLE AND WILL
LIKELY STAY THERE FOR SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE WRAPPING ABOUT THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SPREAD A ENERGY A BIT FURTHER EAST THAT
WILL TRY TO SPREAD RAIN BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY.
OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE LOW BECOMING ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUD COVER FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE PANHANDLE, ALLOWING FOR LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS
WITH COOLER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY, BUT ALSO WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. LATER ON
SUNDAY FOR THE INNER CHANNELS, THERMAL TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR
MEANS SEA BREEZES IN THE USUAL AREAS. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLARENCE
STRAIT WHICH COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 15 KTS NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN NORTH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THAT WILL BE DRIFTING TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS GOT TO ABOUT
THE BORDER WITH THE REMAINING CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN AREA
THIS MORNING AND EVEN A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES FOR THE HAINES AREA.
ALL AND ALL A RELATIVELY QUIET END TO THE WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR
THE PANHANDLE WITH RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. FOR MORE ON
WHAT TO EXPECT EARLY NEXT WEEK, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGES TO THE RELATIVELY STAGNANT PATTERN
THAT IS MONDAY ONWARDS. THE BROAD CLOSED LOW, LOCATED IN THE
CENTRAL GULF, LOOKS TO STAY IN A BLOCKING PATTERN, WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED AT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FLOW, WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY RAINMAKERS
FOR TUESDAY ONWARDS. WHILE THERE IS HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
IS RELATIVELY DEEP WITH PW AROUND AN INCH COMING INTO THE
PANHANDLE, NOT LOOKING AT MUCH PRECIPITATION DUE TO LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM WEAK WINDS. THEN, WITH THE
TERRAIN IN THE PANHANDLE, EXPECTING ANY HIGHER RAINFALL TO
COLLAPSE AS IT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM THE WAVES SHEARING
APART. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ON THE WESTERN COAST OF
POW ISLAND FOR THIS REASON, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION INLAND. GOING
WITH THIS IDEA, CURRENTLY HAVE MUCH REDUCED POPS FROM ABOUT KAKE
NORTHWARD, LESS THAN 50% FOR MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION IN 6 HOURS.
CONSIDER THIS TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH THE ONLY
AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY APPRECIATIVE RAIN CHANCES BEING HAINES AND
SKAGWAY AT LESS THAN 20%.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 18Z MONDAY/
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF
800 FOOT BKN CLOUDS OVER YAKUTAT, THE PANHANDLE HAS BEEN VFR WITH
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND FULL VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. WINDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, SAVE FOR HAINES THAT HAS BEEN OUT
OF THE WEST AT AROUND 11 TO 13 KTS.
LOOKING FORWARD, VFR WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SEA
BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: DUE TO POSITION OF THE LOW FAR REMOVED FROM THE
OUTER COAST, WINDS ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT. EXCEPTIONS ARE SOME GAP-FLOW WINDS ALONG BACKSIDE OF
DOUGLAS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WHICH COULD
REACH UPWARDS OF 15 KT, AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW COMING UP
CLARENCE STRAIT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LYNN
CANAL LIKELY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO DRAINAGE WINDS
COMING DOWN THE VALLEYS AND THE OVERALL WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT.
OUTSIDE WATERS: THE QUASI STATIONARY LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
SUNDAY AS IT SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. WIND SPEED IN THE
EASTERN GULF ARE 20 TO 25 KT WHILE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
15 TO 20 KT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND TURN NORTHERLY, WHILE
ELSEWHERE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE PRIMARILY EASTERLY.
AREA OF 5-7 FT SEAS IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD .
SEAS WILL THEN FURTHER DIMINISH OVERALL AS THE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF CONTINUES TO DEGRADE INTO TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ661>663.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...BEZENEK
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