134
FXAK67 PAJK 272307
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
307 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2025
SHORT TERM
A MATURE LOW IN THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO
STAGNATE IN THE REGION, WITH CLOUD COVER NOW LARGELY REMOVED FROM
THE PANHANDLE ASIDE FROM FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OCCASIONALLY
SLIDING OVER FROM CANADA. THE OUTER PRECIPITATION BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. LATER MONDAY MORNING, A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH THIS MAIN
PRECIPITATION BAND NORTHWARD ONCE MORE. WHILE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, WITH 24 HOUR TOTALS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY REMAINING LARGELY BELOW 0.30 INCHES, HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF POW AND SOUTHERN BARANOF
ISLAND COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 0.5 INCHES. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTER COAST, WITH COMMUNITIES IN THE INNER
CHANNELS LIKELY SEEING LESS THAN 0.2 INCHES FOR THE SAME
PERIOD. THESE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES IN AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.
WHILE WE HAVE PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY LATER MONDAY, THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN CLOUD FREE FOR A SPELL ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE MID OR UPPER 70S ONCE MORE
MONDAY AFTERNOON, ONLY POTENTIALLY OFFSET BY DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZES. FOR MORE ON WHAT TO EXPECT LATER THIS WEEK WITH THAT
PESKY LOW IN THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM...A WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LINGERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH SOME
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES.
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEK, ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING NORTHWARD,
AND NOT TRULY BEING DISLODGED UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK OR INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF, EXPECT OCCASIONAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO BE SENT NORTHWARD BY THIS SYSTEM, MANY OF
THESE THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM'S OCCLUDED FRONT. ALONG WITH THE
CORRESPONDING RETURN OF CLOUD COVER, THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BRING
BACK CHANCES OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE,
AND AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS. THE FIRST FEW OF
THESE WAVES ARRIVES LATE ON MONDAY, AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
MARGINALLY MORE ROBUST WAVE ON TUESDAY, THEN ANOTHER WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY, AND POTENTIALLY ADDITIONAL WAVES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS WITH THESE WAVES,
ALTHOUGH THE WIND DIRECTIONS IN SOME OF THE INNER CHANNELS AND FOR
SOME LAND-BASED LOCATIONS WILL AT TIMES FLIP AS A WAVE MOVES
THROUGH - THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE WIND SHIFTS REMAINS A
CONFIDENCE ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD, AS
OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF
BETWEEN 7C AND 13C CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND AT TIMES THE 70S. BEYOND FRIDAY, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES AS ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL DEPART
THE GULF, BUT ARE OTHERWISE NOT IN LOCKSTEP ON MUCH ELSE.
AVIATION
THE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER BEFORE SLIDING NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THIS MEANS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, THE VFR CONDITIONS THE AREA SAW TODAY WILL
PERSIST. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. NO VISIBILITY ISSUES.
FOR MOST OF MONDAY, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY MIRROR TODAY.
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN HIGH-
END VFR. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY START THE DAY WITH
HIGH-END VFR BUT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH, CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER. THAT BEING SAID, VFR IS STILL MOST LIKELY.
FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOR MOST OF SE, EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE. IT'S
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THAT COULD SEE SOME CIG LOWERING. MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO START THE NIGHT BUT MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SO MVFR CONDITIONS, DUE
TO CIGS, WILL TRACK NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. AND THESE
LOWERED CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH ON TUESDAY. SOME REDUCED
VIS IS POSSIBLE BUT THE MAIN IMPACT TO FLYING WILL BE THE LOWERED
CIGS.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: WITH THE LOW NOW POSITIONED IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
GULF, WINDS ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.
EXCEPTIONS ARE SOME GAP-FLOW WINDS IN SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT AND
LOCALIZED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WHICH COULD OCCASIONALLY REACH
UPWARDS OF 15 KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
LYNN CANAL LIKELY BECOMING VARIABLE BEFORE LIGHTLY TURNING OUT OF
THE NORTH DUE TO DRAINAGE WINDS COMING DOWN THE VALLEYS AND THE
OVERALL WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A SIMILAR STORY
WILL PLAY OUT IN OTHER PLACES THAT SEE SEA BREEZES WITH WINDS
LIKELY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTSIDE WATERS: THE QUASI STATIONARY LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
SUNDAY AS IT SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. WIND SPEEDS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 15 - 20 KT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AREA OF 6 - 9 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WINDS OVER THE AREA SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY. SEAS WILL THEN FURTHER DIMINISH OVERALL AS THE LOW IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO DEGRADE INTO TUESDAY, WITH ONLY
SOME SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES
NORTHWARD LATER TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ661>663.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...STJ
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