864
FXAK67 PAJK 281803
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1003 AM AKDT MON JUL 28 2025
UPDATE
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE THE 18Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM
A MATURE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHERN
GULF EARLY SUNDAY, WHILE WEAKENING. THE OUTER PRECIPITATION BAND
IS OFF SHORE THE PANHANDLE AND WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE WRAPPING
ABOUT THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SPREAD A ENERGY A BIT FURTHER
EAST THAT WILL TRY TO SPREAD RAIN BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE LOW BECOMING ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUD COVER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE, ALLOWING FOR LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS WITH
COOLER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT, BUT ALSO
WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. LATER ON SUNDAY FOR THE INNER
CHANNELS, THERMAL TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR MEANS SEA BREEZES IN
THE USUAL AREAS. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KT OR
LESS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLARENCE STRAIT WHICH COULD REACH
UPWARDS OF 15 KTS NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN NORTH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THAT WILL BE DRIFTING TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AGAIN.
ALL AND ALL A RELATIVELY QUIET START TO THE WEEK FOR THE
PANHANDLE WITH RELATIVELY WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR
MORE ON WHAT TO EXPECT EARLY NEXT WEEK, SEE THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM...A WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LINGERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH SOME
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES.
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEK, ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING NORTHWARD,
AND NOT TRULY BEING DISLODGED UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK OR INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF, EXPECT OCCASIONAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO BE SENT NORTHWARD BY THIS SYSTEM, MANY OF
THESE THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM'S OCCLUDED FRONT. ALONG WITH THE
CORRESPONDING RETURN OF CLOUD COVER, THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BRING
BACK CHANCES OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE,
AND AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS. THE FIRST FEW OF
THESE WAVES ARRIVES LATE ON MONDAY, AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
MARGINALLY MORE ROBUST WAVE ON TUESDAY, THEN ANOTHER WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY, AND POTENTIALLY ADDITIONAL WAVES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS WITH THESE WAVES,
ALTHOUGH THE WIND DIRECTIONS IN SOME OF THE INNER CHANNELS AND FOR
SOME LAND-BASED LOCATIONS WILL AT TIMES FLIP AS A WAVE MOVES
THROUGH - THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE WIND SHIFTS REMAINS A
CONFIDENCE ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD, AS
OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF
BETWEEN 7C AND 13C CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND AT TIMES THE 70S. BEYOND FRIDAY, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES AS ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL DEPART
THE GULF, BUT ARE OTHERWISE NOT IN LOCKSTEP ON MUCH ELSE.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND OUT THERE AROUND SE AK
THIS MORNING. SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SEEN AROUND SOUTHERN
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, HINTING AT THE NEXT ROUND OF LOWERED
CLOUDS AND RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
FOR MOST OF TODAY, THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN HIGH-END
VFR. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD, BUT STILL VFR.
FOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOR MOST OF SE, EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE. IT'S
THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THAT COULD SEE SOME CIG LOWERING.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO START THE NIGHT BUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT, RAIN WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH CIGS DOWN TO
4000 TO 5000 FEET.
BUT MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS, DUE TO CIGS, ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AND IF THESE LOWERED CIGS ARE ABLE TO MAKE
IT INTO THE PANHANDLE, THESE LOWERED CIGS WILL TRACK NORTH
TUESDAY. SOME REDUCED VIS IS POSSIBLE BUT THE MAIN IMPACT TO
FLYING WILL BE THE LOWERED CIGS. WINDS WILL ALSO START BECOMING
BREEZY IN THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE GUSTS REACHING 20 KT. SOME WEAK
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY ALSO BE SEEN OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: DUE TO POSITION OF THE LOW FAR REMOVED FROM THE
OUTER COAST, WINDS ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT. EXCEPTIONS ARE SOME GAP FLOW WINDS ALONG BACKSIDE OF
DOUGLAS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WHICH COULD
REACH UPWARDS OF 15 KT, AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW COMING UP
CLARENCE STRAIT.
OUTSIDE WATERS: THE QUASI STATIONARY LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
IN THE SOUTHERN GULF TO TUESDAY WIND SPEED IN THE EASTERN GULF
ARE 20 TO 25 KT WHILE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF 15 TO 20 KT
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND TURN NORTHERLY, WHILE ELSEWHERE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE PRIMARILY EASTERLY. AREA OF
4-6 FT SEAS IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ661.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...BEZENEK
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