370
FXAK67 PAJK 290546
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
946 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF LOOKS
TO REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. FOR THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW, A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AS A SMALL PERTURBATION
OF THE OVERALL SOUTHERLY FLOW. A FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREA TONIGHT AND
ATTEMPT TO TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLE. ULTIMATELY, DUE TO HOW WEAK THE
ALOFT WINDS ARE, NOT EXPECTING HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXCEPT
IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OVER COAST DUE TO THE MOUNTAINS
SHEARING APART THE FRONT. EXPECT THIS GENERAL TREND TO BE THE
STORY FOR THE NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING UP ON
TUESDAY YET AGAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
BEFORE THE FIRST WAVE MOVES UP HOWEVER; AS MANY OF THOSE READING
MAY HAVE NOTICED OUTSIDE, AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE, IS THAT IT IS QUITE WARM OUTSIDE. THIS IS BECAUSE OF
RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE NORTHERN END OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PROMOTING DOWNWARD MOTION AND DRYING AIR. THE RESULT IS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE BEING 14 DEGREES C AND ABOVE. THEN WITH A
MIXED ATMOSPHERE, THIS TRANSLATES TO TEMPERATURES AROUND THE 80
DEGREES F MARK, PROMPTING SEVERAL HEAT ADVISORIES. SO FAR, THESE
HAVE BEEN PLAYING OUT WELL WITH MANY LOCATIONS CURRENTLY OR CLOSE
TO 80 DEGREES AT TIME OF WRITING.
LONG TERM...A WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LINGERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OFF AND
ON.
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY MID WEEK, ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING NORTHWARD, AND
NOT TRULY BEING DISLODGED UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK OR INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF, OCCASIONAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE SENT NORTHWARD BY THIS SYSTEM, MANY OF
THESE THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM'S OCCLUDED FRONT. ALONG WITH THE
CORRESPONDING RETURN OF CLOUD COVER, THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BRING
BACK CHANCES OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE,
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS EXPECTED AS OF THIS DISCUSSION.
WHILE SOME INCREASES IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH EACH TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH, THE PRIMARY IMPACT WOULD BE FROM CHANGING WIND
DIRECTIONS IN SOME OF THE INNER CHANNELS AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE WIND SHIFTS REMAINS A LOWER CONFIDENCE
ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS LEAD TIME. STRONGEST WINDS WITH
THESE SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS
ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS, WITH STRETCHES OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BETWEEN THEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD, AS
OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF
BETWEEN 7C AND 13C CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND AT TIMES THE 70S. BEYOND FRIDAY, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES AS ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL DEPART
THE GULF, BUT ARE OTHERWISE NOT IN LOCKSTEP ON MUCH ELSE. TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING TAPPED BY A LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
BERING SEA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE WATCHED
WITH GREAT INTEREST AS THIS COULD LEAD TO DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO THE GULF AND TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ALASKA SOMETIME EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS.
AVIATION...RAIN AND CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO SPREAD OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. SO FAR RAIN HAS REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS
KAKE AND WRANGELL AS OF 5Z THROUGH THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE REDUCTION
IN EITHER CEILINGS OR VIS SO FAR (VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE). THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS STILL THE AREA THAT IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
CIG LOWERING, EVEN DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT, MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY LAST INTO TUESDAY. HI-RES MODELS
ARE PUTTING A BAND OF MVFR PROBABILITIES UP TO 40 TO 60% IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEGINNING AFTER 07Z. THESE LOWERED, MVFR
CONDITIONS WOULD BE BECAUSE OF CIGS DOWN TO 2500 TO 3000 FEET.
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AREAS (EXCEPT NE GULF COAST) WILL LIKELY SEE
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING IN AS EARLY AS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS DOWN TO 2500 FT AROUND MID
AFTERNOON TUESDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF HAINES, AS THE MAIN PUSH OF
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
FOR THE YAKUTAT AREA IS IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURNING
OVERNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE LOWERED CONDITIONS
RETURNING AROUND 08Z TO 12Z, WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED
LAST NIGHT. THE REDUCED AVIATION CONDITIONS WOULD COME FROM CIGS
AND VIS, JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT.
WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN IN MOST AREAS FROM EARLY THIS EVENING
THOUGH SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY ALSO BE SEEN OVER
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...
INSIDE WATERS:
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE INNER WATERS
WILL TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT SEA BREEZE PATTERN. LOOKING TO SEE
CROSS SOUND AND ICY STRAIT TO PICK UP FROM MOSTLY LIGHT AIR TO UP
TO A MODERATE BREEZE (15 KNOTS). THIS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTH SPREAD OVER THE PANHANDLE. LOOKING TO SEE BENIGN
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND A LOW TO THE SOUTH
WILL CANCEL OUT ANY STRONGER WIND SPEEDS.
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF HOWEVER, EACH SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASED
WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN ENTRANCE OF CHATHAM STRAIT, SUMNER STRAIT,
AND CLARENCE STRAIT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND A FRESH BREEZE.
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ANY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE INNER CHANNELS (>23.5 KNOTS), BUT GAP
WINDS PARTICULARLY NEAR SHIP ISLAND IN CLARENCE STRAIT COULD PUT
IT OVER THIS THRESHOLD.
OUTSIDE WATERS: ESE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPCOMING FRONTAL BAND WILL PUSH NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT FROM ESE TO S
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS, EXPECT 6-8 FT
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OFFSHORE FROM PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND,
SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH TONIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ661-662.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...NC
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