661
FXAK67 PAJK 291343
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
543 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2025
SHORT TERM
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF LOOKS
TO REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A SHORT WAVE MONDAY HAS RAIN AS
FAR NORTH AS ROUGHLY JUST SOUTH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, AND
CLOUDS HAVE PRESS ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO CANADA AND TOWARDS PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. THE NORTH EDGE IS MORE OF HIGHER CIRRUS LAYER AND
NOT BEING SEEN BY AUTOMATED STATIONS AT YAKUTAT, SKAGWAY AND
HAINES THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AND ATTEMPT TO TRAVERSE THE
PANHANDLE. ULTIMATELY, DUE TO HOW WEAK THE ALOFT WINDS ARE, NOT
EXPECTING HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND OVER COAST DUE TO THE MOUNTAINS SHEARING APART THE
FRONT. EXPECT THIS GENERAL TREND TO BE THE STORY FOR THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING UP ON TUESDAY YET AGAIN FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THAT WERE SUFFERING UNDER
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, SHOULD NOT SEE THE SAME WARMTH, ANTICIPATE
THAT HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES LOWER WITH LOWER TO MAYBE MID
70S TODAY.
LONG TERM...A WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LINGERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OFF AND
ON.
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY MID WEEK, ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING NORTHWARD, AND
NOT TRULY BEING DISLODGED UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK OR INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF, OCCASIONAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE SENT NORTHWARD BY THIS SYSTEM, MANY OF
THESE THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM'S OCCLUDED FRONT. ALONG WITH THE
CORRESPONDING RETURN OF CLOUD COVER, THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BRING
BACK CHANCES OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE,
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS EXPECTED AS OF THIS DISCUSSION.
WHILE SOME INCREASES IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH EACH TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH, THE PRIMARY IMPACT WOULD BE FROM CHANGING WIND
DIRECTIONS IN SOME OF THE INNER CHANNELS AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE WIND SHIFTS REMAINS A LOWER CONFIDENCE
ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS LEAD TIME. STRONGEST WINDS WITH
THESE SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS
ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS, WITH STRETCHES OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BETWEEN THEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD, AS
OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF
BETWEEN 7C AND 13C CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND AT TIMES THE 70S. BEYOND FRIDAY, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES AS ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL DEPART
THE GULF, BUT ARE OTHERWISE NOT IN LOCKSTEP ON MUCH ELSE. TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING TAPPED BY A LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
BERING SEA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE WATCHED
WITH GREAT INTEREST AS THIS COULD LEAD TO DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO THE GULF AND TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ALASKA SOMETIME EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS.
AVIATION
STARTING OUT MOSTLY VFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
A SHALLOW FOG DECK CAUSING IFR AT PAYA. THIS SHALLOW BCFG AT PAYA
IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MIFG AS OF 1130Z. FURTHERMORE, A BAND OF
ORGANIZED RAIN IS PUSHING PAST DIXON ENTRANCE AND WILL STREAM
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL DIMINISH AOB 4000FT BY THE
AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION, MOST ORGANIZED
ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT CIGS AOB 3000FT BECOMES MORE
PREVALENT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: LOOKING TO SEE BENIGN CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND A LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL CANCEL
OUT ANY STRONGER WIND SPEEDS.
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASED
WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN ENTRANCE OF CHATHAM STRAIT, SUMNER STRAIT,
AND CLARENCE STRAIT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND A FRESH BREEZE.
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ANY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE INNER CHANNELS, BUT GAP WINDS
PARTICULARLY NEAR SHIP ISLAND IN CLARENCE STRAIT COULD PUT IT OVER
THIS THRESHOLD.
OUTSIDE WATERS: EXPECT A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT FROM ESE TO S THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. SPEED PRIMARILY 20 KT OR LESS. FOR WAVE
HEIGHTS, EXPECT 6-8 FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OFFSHORE FROM
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH TONIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ662-663.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...BEZENEK
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