703
FXAK67 PAJK 292255
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
255 PM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2025
SHORT TERM
SOMEWHAT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
EVER PRESENT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. THIS
FRONTAL FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN FOR THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND FOR MOST OF THE INSIDE WATERS WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANGES FOR
THE OUTSIDE COAST. AS EXPECTED YESTERDAY, EXPECT LONGER LASTING RAIN
CHANCES ALONG THE OUTER COAST WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. EXPECT A MILD RESURGENCE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
OUTER COAST AGAIN; BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR THE
INSIDE WATERS. MAY EXPECT MISTY FJORDS TO CLEAR OUT, INCREASING
TEMPERATURES MORE THAN EXPECTED. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OUT OF THIS, WITH MOST CONVECTIVE STORMS LOOKING TO DEVELOP
IN CANADA. NOT EXPECTING THESE STORMS TO PASS OVER INTO OUR AOR DUE
TO THE SSW STORM MOTION PUSHING THEM AWAY.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND/
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL WEATHER LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ON-AND-OFF RAIN CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGES:
-CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL, OR ABOVE NORMAL, AFTERNOON TEMPS.
-ON/OFF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
-RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
-POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN THE GULF THROUGH
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL SWING WAVES OF RAIN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. SO OVERALL, EXPECTING
ON/OFF RAIN TO LAST INTO SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AREN'T ALL
THAT MUCH THOUGH. GFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES ARE AVERAGING 24 HOUR
AMOUNTS TO BE UP TO A HALF INCH, LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE 75TH PERCENTILE GETS UP TO 3/4 OF AN INCH FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTH.
SO, EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL ISN'T A LOT BY
SOUTHEAST ALASKA STANDARDS. SO WHILE YES, RAIN IS IN THE DAILY
FORECAST, IT'S NOT MUCH.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND COULD PLAY OUT A LITTLE
DIFFERENTLY. THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT ADVANCING
LOW, SO THE 24 HOUR ENSEMBLE AVERAGE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS
AROUND 1/2 INCH TO 1" OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
75TH PERCENTILES ARE UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES. COMPARE THAT TO THE
LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS, THAT GIVES THE PANHANDLE 1/4 INCH OR LESS OF
RAIN OVER 24 HOURS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 75TH PERCENTILE GIVES UP
TO 1/3 INCH. SO QUITE A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THAT WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY/
A MEANDERING WEAKENING LOW
OVER THE GULF WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT, BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDS & ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLE BREAKS BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES. CIG & VIS
CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY BE BETWEEN THE MVFR & VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES FOR THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD. SOME AREAS MAY PERIODICALLY
DIP DOWN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY IN TERMS OF CIGS, TONIGHT,
PARTICULARLY AREAS ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST, INCLUDING PAYA.
AS FAR AS LLWS VALUES & SFC WINDS, THEY LOOK TO PRIMARILY REMAIN
BENIGN / ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
SOME ENHANCED WINDS IN THE INSIDE WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ALOFT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIMINISH OVER THE EVENING HOURS. EVEN WITH THE
FRONTAL FEATURE, OVERALL WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HOLDOUTS. CROSS SOUND REMAINS ELEVATED FROM A TIP JET,
BUT IS EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN IN THE COMING HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTH. BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT CONDITIONS CALM IN ALL AREAS EXPECT
FOR CLARENCE STRAIT. BECAUSE OF CLARENCE STRAIT'S EXPOSURE TO DIXON
ENTRANCE AND THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, EXPECTING A MODERATE
BREEZE TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS, MOSTLY THE SAME TREND. ALMOST
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO THE ESE TO SE IN THE AOR DIMINISHING FROM A
FRESH BREEZE DOWN TO A LIGHT BREEZE WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY
NEARSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUITE, SUBSIDING
DOWN TO 4 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...NC
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