641
FXAK67 PAJK 300608
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1008 PM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2025
UPDATE
AVIATION UPDATE FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM
SOMEWHAT QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE EVER PRESENT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF. THIS FRONTAL FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN FOR THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A DIMINISHING TREND FOR MOST OF THE INSIDE
WATERS WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANGES FOR THE OUTSIDE COAST. AS
EXPECTED YESTERDAY, EXPECT LONGER LASTING RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE
OUTER COAST WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
EXPECT A MILD RESURGENCE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE OUTER COAST
AGAIN; BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR THE INSIDE
WATERS. MAY EXPECT MISTY FJORDS TO CLEAR OUT, INCREASING
TEMPERATURES MORE THAN EXPECTED. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OUT OF THIS, WITH MOST CONVECTIVE STORMS LOOKING TO
DEVELOP IN CANADA. NOT EXPECTING THESE STORMS TO PASS OVER INTO
OUR AOR DUE TO THE SSW STORM MOTION PUSHING THEM AWAY.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND/
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL WEATHER LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ON-AND-OFF RAIN CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGES:
-CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL, OR ABOVE NORMAL, AFTERNOON TEMPS.
-ON/OFF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
-RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
-POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN THE GULF THROUGH
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL SWING WAVES OF RAIN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. SO OVERALL, EXPECTING
ON/OFF RAIN TO LAST INTO SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AREN'T ALL
THAT MUCH THOUGH. GFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES ARE AVERAGING 24 HOUR
AMOUNTS TO BE UP TO A HALF INCH, LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE 75TH PERCENTILE GETS UP TO 3/4 OF AN INCH FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTH.
SO, EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL ISN'T A LOT BY
SOUTHEAST ALASKA STANDARDS. SO WHILE YES, RAIN IS IN THE DAILY
FORECAST, IT'S NOT MUCH.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND COULD PLAY OUT A LITTLE
DIFFERENTLY. THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT ADVANCING
LOW, SO THE 24 HOUR ENSEMBLE AVERAGE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS
AROUND 1/2 INCH TO 1" OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
75TH PERCENTILES ARE UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES. COMPARE THAT TO THE
LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS, THAT GIVES THE PANHANDLE 1/4 INCH OR LESS OF
RAIN OVER 24 HOURS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 75TH PERCENTILE GIVES UP
TO 1/3 INCH. SO QUITE A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THAT WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 06Z THURSDAY/
A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE GULF
WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT, BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS
& ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, CIGS REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
BELOW 1000 FT, PRIMARILY SEEN ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF
COAST. THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLE BREAKS AND IMPROVEMENTS BETWEEN
THE SHORTWAVES, WITH THE INNER CHANNELS GENERALLY GETTING THE
BETTER OF IT, PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. CIG & VIS
CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY BE BETWEEN THE MVFR & VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES FOR THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD INLAND. SOME AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY DIP DOWN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY IN TERMS
OF CIGS, THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY AREAS ALONG
THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST, INCLUDING PAYA. NO LLWS CONCERNS OR
SIGNIFICANT SFC WINDS TO SPEAK OF THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
SOME ENHANCED WINDS IN THE INSIDE WATERS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ALOFT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIMINISH OVER THE EVENING
HOURS. EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL FEATURE, OVERALL WIND SPEEDS HAVE
BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HOLDOUTS. CROSS SOUND
REMAINS ELEVATED FROM A TIP JET, BUT IS EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN IN
THE COMING HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH. BEHIND THE FRONT,
EXPECT CONDITIONS CALM IN ALL AREAS EXPECT FOR CLARENCE STRAIT.
BECAUSE OF CLARENCE STRAIT'S EXPOSURE TO DIXON ENTRANCE AND THE
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, EXPECTING A MODERATE BREEZE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW.
FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS, MOSTLY THE SAME TREND. ALMOST
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO THE ESE TO SE IN THE AOR DIMINISHING FROM A
FRESH BREEZE DOWN TO A LIGHT BREEZE WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY
NEARSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUITE, SUBSIDING
DOWN TO 4 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...NC
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