360
FXAK67 PAJK 301418
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
618 AM AKDT WED JUL 30 2025
SHORT TERM
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, A SOMEWHAT QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH FROM
THE STILL PRESENT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF.
THESE WAVE SHORTWAVES ARE BRINGING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN FOR
THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A DIMINISHING TREND FOR MOST OF THE
INSIDE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL CLING ALONG THE OUTER COAST THROUGH THE MORNING, IN
PARTICULAR. WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANGES FOR THE OUTER COAST. AS
CHANCES IN GENERAL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, THE MISTY FJORD AREA
WILL LIKELY ENJOY CLEARING, POTENTIALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES
MORE THAN EXPECTED. CHANCES OF PRECIP BEGIN REBUILDING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY, AS MORE SHORT WAVES ARRIVE.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND/
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL WEATHER LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ON-AND-OFF RAIN CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGES:
-CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL, OR ABOVE NORMAL, AFTERNOON TEMPS.
-ON/OFF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
-RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
-POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN THE GULF THROUGH
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL SWING WAVES OF RAIN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. SO OVERALL, EXPECTING
ON/OFF RAIN TO LAST INTO SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AREN'T ALL
THAT MUCH THOUGH. GFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES ARE AVERAGING 24 HOUR
AMOUNTS TO BE UP TO A HALF INCH, LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE 75TH PERCENTILE GETS UP TO 3/4 OF AN INCH FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTH.
SO, EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL ISN'T A LOT BY
SOUTHEAST ALASKA STANDARDS. SO WHILE YES, RAIN IS IN THE DAILY
FORECAST, IT'S NOT MUCH.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND COULD PLAY OUT A LITTLE
DIFFERENTLY. THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT ADVANCING
LOW, SO THE 24 HOUR ENSEMBLE AVERAGE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS
AROUND 1/2 INCH TO 1" OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
75TH PERCENTILES ARE UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES. COMPARE THAT TO THE
LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS, THAT GIVES THE PANHANDLE 1/4 INCH OR LESS OF
RAIN OVER 24 HOURS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 75TH PERCENTILE GIVES UP
TO 1/3 INCH. SO QUITE A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THAT WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
WEDNESDAY CIGS REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT, PRIMARILY SEEN ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLE BREAKS AND
IMPROVEMENTS BETWEEN SYSTEMS; CIG & VIS CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY
BE BETWEEN MVFR & VFR. SOME AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY
DIP DOWN INTO IFR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
FOR THE INSIDE WATERS, WINDS REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, WITH 10 - 15 KT WINDS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY, AND 15-20 KT ON THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WAVE HEIGHTS OF BETWEEN 3-4 FT PREVAIL ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS OF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS ARE SEEING WAVE HEIGHTS OF ~3 FT, WITH
THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS SEEING WAVE PERIODS OF ~13
SECONDS AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS SEEING
CLOSER TO 8 SECONDS.
FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS, SE MAINTAINS A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 20-15 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDING DOWN TO 4 FT OR
LESS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, AND 5 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE
GULF.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GFS/NC
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...GFS
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