622
FXAK67 PAJK 301725
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
925 AM AKDT WED JUL 30 2025
UPDATE
AVIATION UPDATE FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE TO WIND DIRECTIONS, BUT WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS WITH ISOLATED AREAS SEEING WINDS BETWEEN 15
TO 20 KTS THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, A SOMEWHAT QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH FROM
THE STILL PRESENT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF.
THESE WAVE SHORTWAVES ARE BRINGING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN FOR
THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A DIMINISHING TREND FOR MOST OF THE
INSIDE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL CLING ALONG THE OUTER COAST THROUGH THE MORNING, IN PARTICULAR.
AS CHANCES IN GENERAL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, THE MISTY FJORD AREA
WILL LIKELY ENJOY CLEARING, POTENTIALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES MORE
THAN EXPECTED. CHANCES OF PRECIP BEGIN REBUILDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AND INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY, AS MORE SHORT WAVES ARRIVE.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND/...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL WEATHER LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ON-AND-OFF RAIN CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGES:
-CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL, OR ABOVE NORMAL, AFTERNOON TEMPS.
-ON/OFF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
-RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
-POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN THE GULF THROUGH
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL SWING WAVES OF RAIN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. SO OVERALL, EXPECTING
ON/OFF RAIN TO LAST INTO SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AREN'T ALL
THAT MUCH THOUGH. GFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES ARE AVERAGING 24 HOUR
AMOUNTS TO BE UP TO A HALF INCH, LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE 75TH PERCENTILE GETS UP TO 3/4 OF AN INCH FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTH.
SO, EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL ISN'T A LOT BY
SOUTHEAST ALASKA STANDARDS. SO WHILE YES, RAIN IS IN THE DAILY
FORECAST, IT'S NOT MUCH.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND COULD PLAY OUT A LITTLE
DIFFERENTLY. THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT ADVANCING
LOW, SO THE 24 HOUR ENSEMBLE AVERAGE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS
AROUND 1/2 INCH TO 1" OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
75TH PERCENTILES ARE UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES. COMPARE THAT TO THE
LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS, THAT GIVES THE PANHANDLE 1/4 INCH OR LESS OF
RAIN OVER 24 HOURS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 75TH PERCENTILE GIVES UP
TO 1/3 INCH. SO QUITE A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THAT WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION...VARIABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE LOW REMAINS
IN THE GULF. CITIES ALONG NORTHWEST SE AK AND ALONG THE GULF COAST,
CONTINUE TO SEE CEILING BELOW 1000 FT THIS MORNING. THESE CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TO AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2000 FT. IN THE AFTERNOON, CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY VFR ABOVE 3000 FT, BEFORE ONCE AGAIN HAVING DECREASING TO
MVFR WITH TIMES OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. AT THAT
TIME, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BOTH AGAIN DECREASE DUE TO
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
MARINE...
FOR THE INSIDE WATERS, WINDS REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, WITH 10 - 15 KT WINDS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY, AND 15-20 KT ON THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WAVE HEIGHTS OF BETWEEN 3-4 FT PREVAIL ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS OF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS ARE SEEING WAVE HEIGHTS OF ~3 FT, WITH
THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS SEEING WAVE PERIODS OF ~13
SECONDS AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS SEEING
CLOSER TO 8 SECONDS.
FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS, SE MAINTAINS A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 20-15 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDING DOWN TO 4 FT OR
LESS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, AND 5 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE
GULF.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GFS/NC
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...GFS
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