776
FXAK67 PAJK 310554
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
954 PM AKDT WED JUL 30 2025
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 6Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...OVERALL, SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE GULF WITH
WEAK ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT, MOVING TOWARD
THE PANHANDLE. THESE WILL BRING WITH THEM INCREASED CLOUDINESS &
ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A LULL BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES UNTIL AROUND NOON TOMORROW WHEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. AS FAR AS WINDS ARE CONCERNED,
THEY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME AREAS POSSIBLY GETTING SOME ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON THAT RECEIVED ENOUGH SUNSHINE/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS &
WARMED UP ENOUGH. NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN STORE FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND/...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ON-
AND-OFF RAIN CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGES:
-CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL, OR ABOVE NORMAL, AFTERNOON TEMPS.
-ON/OFF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
-RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
-POTENTIAL HEAVIER RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL SWING WAVES OF RAIN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. SO OVERALL, EXPECTING ON/OFF
RAIN TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AREN'T ALL THAT
MUCH THOUGH. GFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES ARE AVERAGING 24 HOUR AMOUNTS
TO BE UP TO A HALF INCH, LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
THE 75TH PERCENTILE GETS UP TO 3/4 OF AN INCH FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTH.
SO, EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL ISN'T A LOT BY
SOUTHEAST ALASKA STANDARDS. SO WHILE YES, RAIN IS IN THE DAILY
FORECAST, IT'S NOT MUCH.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO PLAY OUT A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY. GUIDANCE HAS
REALLY PULLED BACK ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. KEPT "CHANCE
RAIN" FOR ALONG THE COAST AND "SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN" FOR PARTS OF
THE INNER CHANNELS. DECREASED CLOUD COVER AS WELL.
AS FAR AS THE NEXT LOW GOES, MODELS SEEM TO BE NARROWING DOWN ON THE
SOLUTION THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING THE HEAVIER
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHILE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WOULD
SEE LIGHT RAIN, IF ANY RAIN AT ALL. SO FAR, THE GFS ENS AND EURO
ENS MEANS ARE SIMULATING 1/2 INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER .75 TO 1.25 INCHES ON MONDAY. AND AGAIN, THE EURO IS
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL. THE MORE EXTREME AMOUNTS (90TH
PERCENTILE) ARE UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OVER 24 HOURS.
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, MUCH LIGHTER RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
MODELS AVERAGING AROUND 1/4 INCH OR LESS WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILES
UPWARDS OF 1/2 INCH. SO YES, MUCH LIGHTER RAIN, IF ANY, IS MORE
LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE IF THIS SOUTHERN TRACK
PANS OUT.
AVIATION...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST AND
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THIS EVENING HAS PRODUCED IFR AND SOME
LIFR CEILINGS AT TIMES (DOWN TO 300 FT AT GUSTAVUS) WITH SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY (DOWN TO 2 MILES AT TIMES). THAT AREA OF
RAIN WILL LIFT NW THROUGH THE NIGHT RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE HAS ALREADY
IMPROVED TO VFR WITH SOME AREAS NEARLY FREE OF CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF
THIS I CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG (WITH IFR
CONDITIONS) DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT IN THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN.
THURSDAY FEATURES MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCATTERED MVFR
CEILINGS HERE AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. THURSDAY NIGHT
HAS A NEW BAND OF RAIN COMING IN FROM THE GULF MOVING NORTH.
LIKELY WILL SEE CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR (OR IFR IN SOME CASES) AS
RAIN MOVES IN MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS
REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SURFACE WINDS OF 15 KT OR
LESS.
MARINE...
INSIDE WATERS: A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE INNER CHANNELS WILL MAINLY KEEP WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT OR
LESS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND CLARENCE
STRAIT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AT BIT AS THE NEXT ATMOSPHERIC
DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. THE SAME THING HAPPENS AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO
10 KT OR LESS, ONCE AGAIN. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 3 FT OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTSIDE WATERS: THE RELATIVELY TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND THE WEAK MEANDERING LOW IN THE GULF WILL CAUSE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN AROUND 10 & 20 KT INTO THE WEEKEND.
PEAK SEAS OF UP TO AROUND 6 FT ARE EXPECTED WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...JLC
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