358
FXAK67 PAJK 311400
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 AM AKDT THU JUL 31 2025
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY/
OVERALL, SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A PLETHORA OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
HAS FOG, SOME OF IT DENSE. MEANWHILE, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE ALONGSIDE THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR ARE EXPERIENCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK WHICH HAS BEEN IMPINGING ON CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. BOTH OF THESE SHOULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT
AMELIORATION THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING.
A VERTICALLY INTEGRATED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
OVER THE GULF WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
IT, MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE. THESE WILL BRING WITH THEM
INCREASED CLOUDINESS & LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A
LULL BETWEEN THE 'STRONGER' SHORTWAVES UNTIL THE LATTER HALF OF
THURSDAY, WHEN ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE UP FROM THE S AND INTO
THE REGION.. AS FAR AS WINDS ARE CONCERNED, THEY SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
GETTING SOME ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THAT
RECEIVED ENOUGH SUNSHINE/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS & WARMED UP ENOUGH.
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND/
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ON-
AND-OFF RAIN CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGES:
-CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL, OR ABOVE NORMAL, AFTERNOON TEMPS.
-ON/OFF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
-RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
-POTENTIAL HEAVIER RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL SWING WAVES OF RAIN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. SO OVERALL, EXPECTING ON/OFF
RAIN TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AREN'T ALL THAT
MUCH THOUGH. GFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES ARE AVERAGING 24 HOUR AMOUNTS
TO BE UP TO A HALF INCH, LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
THE 75TH PERCENTILE GETS UP TO 3/4 OF AN INCH FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTH.
SO, EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL ISN'T A LOT BY
SOUTHEAST ALASKA STANDARDS. SO WHILE YES, RAIN IS IN THE DAILY
FORECAST, IT'S NOT MUCH.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO PLAY OUT A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY. GUIDANCE HAS
REALLY PULLED BACK ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. KEPT "CHANCE
RAIN" FOR ALONG THE COAST AND "SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN" FOR PARTS OF
THE INNER CHANNELS. DECREASED CLOUD COVER AS WELL.
AS FAR AS THE NEXT LOW GOES, MODELS SEEM TO BE NARROWING DOWN ON THE
SOLUTION THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING THE HEAVIER
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHILE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WOULD
SEE LIGHT RAIN, IF ANY RAIN AT ALL. SO FAR, THE GFS ENS AND EURO
ENS MEANS ARE SIMULATING 1/2 INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER .75 TO 1.25 INCHES ON MONDAY. AND AGAIN, THE EURO IS
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL. THE MORE EXTREME AMOUNTS (90TH
PERCENTILE) ARE UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OVER 24 HOURS.
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, MUCH LIGHTER RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
MODELS AVERAGING AROUND 1/4 INCH OR LESS WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILES
UPWARDS OF 1/2 INCH. SO YES, MUCH LIGHTER RAIN, IF ANY, IS MORE
LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE IF THIS SOUTHERN TRACK
PANS OUT.
AVIATION
DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE IMPACTING THE COAST AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH PAGS, PAKT, AND PAFE REPORTING VSBY OF 0
TO 1/4SM AT OF 0400 LOCAL TIME. EXPECTING THESE AREAS TO CLEAR TO
MVFR NEAR 0800. FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SOME SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS HERE AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. THURSDAY NIGHT HAS A NEW BAND OF RAIN COMING IN
FROM THE GULF MOVING NORTH. LIKELY WILL SEE CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR
TO IFR, WINDS REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SURFACE
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MARINE FORECAST.
SUSTAINED WINDS LARGELY CAP OUT AT AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, EXPECT FOR SEA-BREEZE IMPACTED LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS
WILL REACH ~15 KT. SOME ~15 KT WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE SURGES NORTH.
OUTSIDE WATERS: THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. AS A
DECAYING LOW MEANDERS SLOWLY ACROSS THE GULF, OUTER COASTAL WAVE
HEIGHTS FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT ON THURSDAY, AND 4 TO 6 FT ON
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTSIDE
WATERS. CURRENT WAVE PERIOD AS OF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IS AROUND
12 SECONDS FOR THE NORTHERN GULF, AND AROUND 6 SECONDS FOR MORE
SOUTHERN WATERS, WITH A S SWELL OF 2 FT OR LESS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ327-329-
330-332.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...GFS
HYDROLOGY...GFS
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