409
FXAK67 PAJK 311809
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1009 AM AKDT THU JUL 31 2025
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY/
OVERALL, SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A PLETHORA OF
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE HAS FOG, SOME OF IT DENSE. MEANWHILE, THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE ALONGSIDE THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR ARE
EXPERIENCING A LOW STRATUS DECK WHICH HAS BEEN IMPINGING ON
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BOTH OF THESE SHOULD SEE SOME
SIGNIFICANT AMELIORATION THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING.
A VERTICALLY INTEGRATED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
OVER THE GULF WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
IT, MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE. THESE WILL BRING WITH THEM
INCREASED CLOUDINESS & LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A
LULL BETWEEN THE 'STRONGER' SHORTWAVES UNTIL THE LATTER HALF OF
THURSDAY, WHEN ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE UP FROM THE S AND INTO
THE REGION.. AS FAR AS WINDS ARE CONCERNED, THEY SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
GETTING SOME ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THAT
RECEIVED ENOUGH SUNSHINE/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS & WARMED UP ENOUGH.
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND/
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ON-
AND-OFF RAIN CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGES:
-CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL, OR ABOVE NORMAL, AFTERNOON TEMPS.
-ON/OFF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
-RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
-POTENTIAL HEAVIER RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN THE GULF THROUGH
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL SWING WAVES OF RAIN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. SO OVERALL, EXPECTING
ON/OFF RAIN TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AREN'T ALL
THAT MUCH THOUGH. GFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES ARE AVERAGING 24 HOUR
AMOUNTS TO BE UP TO A HALF INCH, LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE 75TH PERCENTILE GETS UP TO 3/4 OF AN INCH FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTH.
SO, EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL ISN'T A LOT BY
SOUTHEAST ALASKA STANDARDS. SO WHILE YES, RAIN IS IN THE DAILY
FORECAST, IT'S NOT MUCH.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO PLAY OUT A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY. GUIDANCE HAS
REALLY PULLED BACK ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. KEPT
"CHANCE RAIN" FOR ALONG THE COAST AND "SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN" FOR
PARTS OF THE INNER CHANNELS. DECREASED CLOUD COVER AS WELL.
AS FAR AS THE NEXT LOW GOES, MODELS SEEM TO BE NARROWING DOWN ON
THE SOLUTION THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING THE HEAVIER
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHILE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WOULD
SEE LIGHT RAIN, IF ANY RAIN AT ALL. SO FAR, THE GFS ENS AND EURO
ENS MEANS ARE SIMULATING 1/2 INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER .75 TO 1.25 INCHES ON MONDAY. AND AGAIN, THE EURO IS
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL. THE MORE EXTREME AMOUNTS (90TH
PERCENTILE) ARE UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OVER 24 HOURS.
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, MUCH LIGHTER RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
MODELS AVERAGING AROUND 1/4 INCH OR LESS WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILES
UPWARDS OF 1/2 INCH. SO YES, MUCH LIGHTER RAIN, IF ANY, IS MORE
LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE IF THIS SOUTHERN
TRACK PANS OUT.
AVIATION
DENSE FOG IMPACTING A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE IS
CLEARING OUT THROUGH THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT IN SOUTHERN INTERIOR COMMUNITIES, WITH PAFE AND AREAS OF
FREDERICK SOUND HOLDING ON TO IT A BIT LONGER. EXPECTING MOST
AREAS TO CLEAR TO AT LEAST MVFR BY NOON, AS BLUE SKIES ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO PEAK OUT. FOR THE AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. THURSDAY NIGHT HAS A NEW BAND OF RAIN COMING IN
FROM THE GULF MOVING NORTH. LIKELY WILL SEE CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR
TO IFR, WINDS REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SURFACE
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS. LOWERED CEILINGS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AS THE BAND PASSES OVER, STARTING WITH THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT AND EXTENDING NORTH INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AREAS THAT SAW DENSE FOG THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO BRING
BACK THE LOW OVERCAST CEILING AROUND THE SAME TIME FRIDAY MORNING,
THOUGH WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MARINE FORECAST. SUSTAINED
WINDS LARGELY CAP OUT AT AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY,
EXPECT FOR SEA-BREEZE IMPACTED LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS WILL REACH
~15 KT. SOME ~15 KT WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE SURGES NORTH.
OUTSIDE WATERS: THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. AS A
DECAYING LOW MEANDERS SLOWLY ACROSS THE GULF, OUTER COASTAL WAVE
HEIGHTS FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT ON THURSDAY, AND 4 TO 6 FT ON
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTSIDE
WATERS. CURRENT WAVE PERIOD AS OF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IS AROUND
12 SECONDS FOR THE NORTHERN GULF, AND AROUND 6 SECONDS FOR MORE
SOUTHERN WATERS, WITH A S SWELL OF 2 FT OR LESS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ327.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...AP/ZTK
MARINE...GFS
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