439
FXAK67 PAJK 141252
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
452 AM AKDT THU AUG 14 2025
SHORT TERM
/THURSDAY/ - A SPLIT FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE
PANHANDLE TODAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TREK.
THIS ALLOWS A TROUGH AND DEVELOPING LOW TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CLASSIG NORTH/SOUTH DIVIDE IN
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, EXPECT ANOTHER RELATIVELY PLEASANT AND
WARM DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S UNDER
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY WILL REMAIN
LARGELY DRY AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH. IT'S A DIFFERENT STORY FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION. A THICK OVERCAST SHIELD IS ALREADY IN PLACE.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST, RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PANDHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHERNMOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT RAIN TO BEGIN AROUND MIDDAY,
SPREADING FARTHER NORTH THROUHG THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS
FOR AK WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE MID RANGE ARE A 500 MB ARCTIC
LOW NORTH OF THE BERING DROPPING A SECOND LOW AT TIMES CENTERED OVER
THE AK GULF. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND THE ARCTIC LOW BEGINS TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TRACKING OVER THE AK GULF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OVERALL
TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN FOR THE REGION KEEPING MOSTLY DAMP CONDITIONS,
WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN. AT THE SURFACE WHILE MODELS MORE IN
LINE WEAKENING ANY THURSDAY SYSTEM STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH THAT DETAILS ARE NOT NAILED DOWN YET.
THE FRONT CROSSING OVER TUESDAY SHEARS APART WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASED BREAKS IN PRECIP. THE STRONG LOW INDICATED BY SOME MODELS
THURSDAY IS NOW EITHER NOT INDICATED OR JUST SHOWN AS A WEAKER
SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH BUT ENOUGH TO INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIP
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND STARTS OFF WITH A BREAK IN BETWEEN
THE FRIDAY LOW AND THE NEXT LIKELY STRONG LOW APPROACHING BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THIS LOW WILL LIKELY BE GALE FORCE WITH
POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG WITH A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. AT LEAST THAT IS WHAT IS INDICATED NOW AS THE 500 MB
LOW DROPS DOWN. BEYOND THAT THE WEATHER IS A REPEAT, LOWS MOVE IN,
SOME BREAKS, ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN.
AVIATION
FROM A PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD MARINE STRATUS DECK BLANKETING
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND GULF COAST, IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. SOLAR HEATING AND
INCREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FOR
MOST LOCATIONS BY MID-MORNING, WITH A RETURN TO VFR
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
A NEW SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING, KEEPING CONDITIONS MVFR TO IFR.
THE FAR INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR WITH
CEILINGS NEAR 700 FEET AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN MIST EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF AND IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
ALONG THE GULF COAST, YAKUTAT AND SITKA WILL SEE IFR CEILINGS NEAR
800 FEET IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH,
CONDITIONS ARE MARKEDLY BETTER. THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL, INCLUDING
HAINES AND SKAGWAY, WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
GULF: SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
REACHIGN STRONG BREEZE CRITERIA(UP TO 25 KNOTS) IN AREAS AROUND
THE SOUTH OF CAPE EDGECOMBE, THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. IN
THE NE GULF COAST, WINDS WILL BE WEAKER, GENERALLY A LIGHT TO
MODERATE BREEZE(AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEAS WILL BUILD
ACCORDINGLY, REACHING 6 TO 8 FEET WHERE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST.
INNER CHANNELS: A NOTABLE NORTH-SOUTH SPLIT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INNER CHANNELS. SOUTHERN CHANNELS WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASE TO A MODERATE BREEZE(AROUND 15 KNOTS)
BY TONIGHT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 OR 4 FEET. FARTHER NORTH,
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE DURING THE DAY BEFORE A
LIGHT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.
A SPECIAL NOTE TO MARINERS: BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE TREES AND OTHER
DEBRIS NEAR THE MOUTH OF MENDENHALL RIVER FOLLOWING THE RECENT
FLOOD.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-032-033-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...GFS
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