828
FXAK67 PAJK 150010
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKDT THU AUG 14 2025
SHORT TERM
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A COMPLEX LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DIXON
ENTRANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS SPREADING NORTHWARD. THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF RAIN WILL REACH ROUGHLY A PETERSBURG TO SITKA LINE BEFORE
STALLING. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN-MOST
AREAS TONIGHT. RAIN WILL LIGHTEN A BIT ON FRIDAY, BUT PERSIST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN QUIET, WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF SHALLOW
FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
MEANWHILE, A ROBUST SHORT-WAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC, THEN ROTATE BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD SE AK LATE
FRIDAY. THE END RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENING LOW AND TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHWARD, WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LONG TERM(EAB) KEY POINTS
* LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN TO THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND.
* LIGHTER RAIN LINGERS INTO THE START OF THE WEEK BEFORE DIMINISHING.
DETAILS: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS AND MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH
OF THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN REMAINS
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE
INCREASED WINDS ALONG SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND DIXON ENTRANCE,
AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. FROM FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY, RAIN TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LOOK TO BE
AROUND 1.5 TO 3 INCHES, WITH 24 HOUR TOTALS AROUND 1 INCH. THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIPITATION
WITH WEEKEND TOTALS AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIMINISHES AND MOVES OUT OF THE GULF BY LATE SUNDAY.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THEN LINGER INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
FOR WINDS, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. FRESH BREEZES OF
15 TO 20 KTS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHANNELS WITH
STRONG BREEZES OF 22 TO 27 KTS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE INTO SOUTHERN
CLARENCE STRAIT. OVER LAND IN SOUTHERN AREAS, THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.
THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO THE START
OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION(GFS)
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN USHERED IN ACROSS MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE, AS A DEPARTING SYSTEM HAS LEFT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
CIGS IN ITS WAKE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAS
CONTINUED TO EXPERIENCE LOWER CIGS (~1500 FEET) THROUGH THE DAY
THUS FAR. CONDITIONS WILL PROVE TO BE MORE MIXED GOING FORWARD. A
NEW SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE, ALONGSIDE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. FURTHER NORTH,
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH, WITH ONLY SOME MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTHWARD, AND
SO EXPECT THESE AREAS TO REMAIN LARGELY VFR. SOME FOG POTENTIAL
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL,
WITH THE USUAL FOG RELATED CONCERNS (SIGNIFICANT VIS/CIG
RESTRICTIONS), ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THESE
CONCERNS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT MITIGATED.
MARINE(GFS)
INSIDE WATERS: A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE BRINGS WITH IT
FRESH BREEZES OF 15 TO 20 KT FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS,
ALONGSIDE STRONG BREEZES OF 22 TO 27 KT ACROSS THE DIXON ENTRANCE
AND INTO SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL LARGELY SEE WINDS BETWEEN
10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE TIME FRAME, SEAS OF 2-3 FT FOR THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS AND HIGHER SEAS OF 3-5 FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN
CHANNELS ARE ANTICIPATED, ALONG WITH HIGHER SEAS NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES.
OUTSIDE WATERS: WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS, GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME
ON THURSDAY, WILL SHIFT TO MORE NW FLOW THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
ON FRIDAY, SUBSIDING IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS BUT REMAINING
ELEVATED ACROSS THE DEEPER WATERS OF THE GULF OF AK PROPER.
FURTHER NORTH, ANTICIPATE NW FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT PREVAILING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 3 FT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH A WAVE PERIOD OF ~16
SECONDS, THOUGH THE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-642-661-662.
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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