794
FXAK67 PAJK 151248
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 AM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SHORT TERM
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY WITH A LOW CENTER SW OF
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND GETTING A FRESH INJECTION OF ENERGY FROM A
TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE RESULT IS A SLIGHT
DEEPENING OF THE LOW, DROPPING THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH AND
INCREASING WINDS SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE. OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY, EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO RIDE UP ALONG THE
COASTLINE FROM HAIDA GWAII UP TO AROUND CAPE DECISION. AS THE LOW
MOVES UP ALONG THE COAST, IT WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
OCCLUDED. AS THIS FRONT WILL BE MOVING OVER COMPLEX TERRAIN IN AN
ALREADY WEAKENED STATE, NOT EXPECTING HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE UP TO AROUND KAKE. HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF KAKE WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OF FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES UP FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS SECONDARY FRONT WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY 850 MB
SOUTHERLY CAA, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW LEVEL RAIN
SHOWERS.
LONG TERM
* LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN TO THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND.
* LIGHTER RAIN LINGERS INTO THE START OF THE WEEK BEFORE DIMINISHING.
DETAILS: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS AND MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH
OF THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN REMAINS
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE
INCREASED WINDS ALONG SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND DIXON ENTRANCE,
AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. FROM FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY, RAIN TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LOOK TO BE
AROUND 1.5 TO 3 INCHES, WITH 24 HOUR TOTALS AROUND 1 INCH. THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIPITATION
WITH WEEKEND TOTALS AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIMINISHES AND MOVES OUT OF THE GULF BY LATE SUNDAY.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THEN LINGER INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
FOR WINDS, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. FRESH BREEZES OF
15 TO 20 KTS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHANNELS WITH
STRONG BREEZES OF 22 TO 27 KTS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE INTO SOUTHERN
CLARENCE STRAIT. OVER LAND IN SOUTHERN AREAS, THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.
THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO THE START
OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SW OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND IS BRINGING
DEEP MOISTURE WITH WEAKER WINDS UP FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR IMPACTFUL AVIATION CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE THE
SOUTHERN INSIDE WATERS, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VIS EXTEND
FROM KETCHIKAN UP TO AROUND FREDERICK SOUND. WITH A PRESENT
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECTING THE LOW STRATUS
DECK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. ESE WINDS ALOFT
PASSING OVER PRINCE OF WALES AND BARANOF ISLAND HAS LED TO A
DRYING EFFECT, LIMITING PRECIPITATION AND KEEPING CONDITIONS
MOSTLY VFR. NOT EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO STICK AROUND AFTER
THE MORNING HOURS FOR POW ISLAND, AS MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, DROPPING CEILINGS TO MVFR.
MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE, WITH DRYING NW FLOW FROM CANADA KEEPING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW FROM DRYING, DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT TO SEE MOSTLY FEW NEAR 6000 FT FROM JUNEAU NORTHWARD,
INCREASING TO BKN AS INCREASED MOISTURE ALOFT MOVES OVER THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: EXPECT FRESH BREEZES OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE
SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT DIMINISHING OVER THE DAY AS THE LOW
CENTER DROPS FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECTING TO SEE A RESURGENCE OF FRESH
BREEZES FROM THE SE IN SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT TONIGHT AS THE
LOW CENTER TRAVERSES NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY NORTHERN LYNN CANAL FROM A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 2-3 FEET IN THE NORTHERN CHANNELS AND
3-5 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN CHANNELS, WITH HIGHER SEAS NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES.
OUTSIDE WATERS: EXPECTING WIDESPREAD NW WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS
TODAY AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH 6-7 FT SEAS. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AOR, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DIGGING LOW PRESSURE NEAR HAIDA GWAII. EXPECT TO SEE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN WINDS THIS MORNING BEFORE A RESURGENCE IN FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES UP ALONG THE
COAST.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ053-661-662.
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page