050
FXAK67 PAJK 152341
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
341 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SHORT TERM:
KEY POINTS:
*THE LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND,
MAINLY TO SOUTHERN AREAS, OVER THE WEEKEND.
*THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
EVENING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
DETAILS: THE LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH TIMES OF LIGHT SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THIS LOW WILL SLIGHTLY TRAVEL NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AS IT DISSIPATES INTO THE START OF THE
WEEK. FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, KETCHIKAN, AND ANNETTE ISLAND,
24 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE, 24 HOUR
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 0.5 INCHES. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF REACHING 0.5 INCHES IN 24 HOURS IS OVER BARENOF
ISLAND AND NEAR JUNEAU. EVEN THEN, CHANCES FOR THOSE AREAS REMAIN
AROUND 40 TO 50% OF 0.5 INCHES IN 24 HOURS.
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SATURDAY EVENING.
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, LAND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 30
MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. OVER THE INNER CHANNELS,
WINDS INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES OF 17 TO 27 KTS. THE
STRONGEST OF THESE WILL BE ALONG SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT INTO
DIXON ENTRANCE WHERE WINDS COULD REACH 30 KTS WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM:
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST INTO SUNDAY, BEFORE
MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF AND WEAKENING INTO MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE
COAST AND COMING OUT OF CROSS SOUND WILL LAST INTO THE LATE
EVENING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER WEST, BRINGING WINDS
BACK DOWN TO PREDOMINANTLY 10 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE INNER CHANNELS AND JUST ALONG THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL LAST
INTO EARLY TO MIDWEEK WITH LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS ALONG
THE INNER CHANNELS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND
SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT STILL SEEING SOME 10 TO 15 KT WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN GULF THAT STRENGTHENS FURTHER INTO
MIDWEEK.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE NORTH OF ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR
AND IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASE BUT STILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK, WITH SHOWERS LASTING IN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE PRIMARILY WHILE THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL
START TO SEE SOME CLEARING. THE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AROUND 0.30 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS OF QPF FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. FOR ANY
SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK INTO MIDWEEK,
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHTER WITH MUCH LOWER QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. OVERALL 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONGSIDE
SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
SOME TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION:
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS CEILINGS ARE
SLOWLY DROPPING TOWARDS MVFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SPOTTY LIGHT
RAINS IN VFR CIGS AND VSBYS BEING OBSERVED CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A
SITKA TO PETERSBURG LINE IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS NORTH, AND VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES JUST NORTH OF THAT INTO THE JUNEAU AND
HAINES AREAS. TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SEES A CONTINUATION OF
GRADUAL FALL INTO PERIODS OF MVFR WHEN RAIN BECOMES A BIT MORE
PREVALENT IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH THE SOUTHERN
AREAS LIKE KETCHIKAN AND KLAWOCK POSSIBLY GETTING TO LOWER END
MVFR IN HEAVIER RAINS AFTER 12Z.
MARINE:
INSIDE WATERS: THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY NORTHERN LYNN CANAL FROM A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
FOR SOUTHERN CHANNELS, FROM FREDERICK SOUND AND SOUTH, EXPECT TO
SEE A RESURGENCE OF FRESH BREEZES FROM THE SE IN SOUTHERN CLARENCE
STRAIT TONIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER TRAVERSES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL THEN SEE
SE WINDS OF 23 TO 27 KTS. IN SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT INTO DIXON
ENTRANCE, WINDS CAN INCREASE TO 30 KTS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 2-3 FEET IN THE NORTHERN CHANNELS AND 3-5
FEET IN THE SOUTHERN CHANNELS, WITH HIGHER SEAS NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES.
OUTSIDE WATERS: FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. CURRENTLY WINDS IN THAT AREA ARE 15 TO 20 KTS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD.
FOR NORTHERN AREAS, EXPECTING WIDESPREAD NW WINDS AROUND 10-15
KNOTS WITH 6-7 FT SEAS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-661.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....ALC
AVIATION...JG
MARINE...NC/EAB
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page