475
FXAK67 PAJK 161323
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
523 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SHORT TERM
CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A LOW SITUATED SOUTH OF POW ISLAND SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ONE FRONTAL BAND
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING,
WHILE MORE ORGANIZED RAIN FROM THE SECOND WRAP OF THE LOW MOVES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SUBSEQUENTLY, STILL EXPECTING THAT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, THE GREATEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SE ALASKA, WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER
CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE MAY EVEN SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUN IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL FRONTAL BAND WHICH
PREVIOUSLY PASSED THROUGH. FOG THAT DEVELOPED IN A FEW LOCATIONS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY WILL DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME
HEATING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD. THE RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, THOUGH THIS LATEST BAND OF
PRECIP WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES UP THE PANHANDLE. ANTICIPATE
CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASING BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTH, ALTHOUGH QPF
TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
THE LOW ITSELF SLOWLY ADVANCES NORTH, ALTHOUGH THESE CHANCES WILL
BEGIN DECLINING ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CHANGES DIRECTIONS AND MOVES
W, AWAY FROM THE AREA.
LONG TERM
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST INTO SUNDAY, BEFORE
MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF AND WEAKENING INTO MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE
COAST AND COMING OUT OF CROSS SOUND WILL LAST INTO THE LATE
EVENING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER WEST, BRINGING WINDS
BACK DOWN TO PREDOMINANTLY 10 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE INNER CHANNELS AND JUST ALONG THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL LAST
INTO EARLY TO MIDWEEK WITH LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS ALONG
THE INNER CHANNELS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND
SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT STILL SEEING SOME 10 TO 15 KT WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN GULF THAT STRENGTHENS FURTHER INTO
MIDWEEK.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE NORTH OF ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR
AND IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASE BUT STILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK, WITH SHOWERS LASTING IN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE PRIMARILY WHILE THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL
START TO SEE SOME CLEARING. THE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AROUND 0.30 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS OF QPF FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. FOR ANY
SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK INTO MIDWEEK,
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHTER WITH MUCH LOWER QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. OVERALL 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONGSIDE
SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
SOME TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION
/UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY/...AS FOR CIGS & VISS, GENERALLY, EXPECT LOWER
CATEGORY FLIGHT CONDITIONS(WELL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY) AS YOU
MOVE FARTHER SOUTH & WESTWARD AS YOU GET NEARER TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PRESSING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST GULF,
SKIRTING PAST SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THIS WILL BRING WAVES/BANDS OF
RAIN & LOWERED CIGS, HEAVIEST & GENERALLY LOWER TO THE SOUTH.
UNDER A PATCH OF CLEARER SKIES & LIGHTER WINDS, SOME CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AREAS SUCH AS PAPG & PAFE ARE EXPERIENCING CIGS & VISS
AS LOW AS THE IFR/LIFR RANGE AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL IMPROVE A BIT AFTER SUNRISE AS THE HEATING WILL ACT TO THIN
OUT THE FG & LIFT THE CLOUD CIGS. FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
PANHANDLE, LLWS MAGNITUDES CENTERED UP AT AROUND 2 KFT OF UP TO
AROUND 35 KT ARE IN STORE OUT OF A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF, PASSING BY THAT AREA. AS FOR SFC WINDS, THEY
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON & LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, WHEN THE PAGY AREA WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE
NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA,
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT & HIGHER PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH. SFC WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE PANHANDLE OUT OF A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ON
SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES NEAREST TO THAT AREA.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ322.
STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ324-
327.
STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ329.
STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ330.
STRONG WIND THIS EVENING FOR AKZ332.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-031>036-053-641>644-661>664-671.
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page