117
FXAK67 PAJK 162352
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
352 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SHORT TERM
A BROAD OCCLUDED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PANHANDLE LATE TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY, THOUGH DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS TOWARDS KRUZOF ISLAND
BEFORE TURNING MORE WESTWARD. FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD, THOUGH RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE BROAD
WIND FIELD FROM THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER WILL LEAD TO WIND SHEAR
ACROSS MANY TAF SITES IN THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS, WITH WINDS UP TO STRONG BREEZE (22 TO 27 KNOTS)
MOVING FROM CLARENCE STRAIT NORTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE, REACHING SOUTHERN
STEPHENS PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY, THE
LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD BEFORE ROTATING
SOUTHWARD OUT INTO THE GULF, WEAKENING FURTHER AND ALLOWING WINDS
ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS TO RELAX DOWN TO GENTLE OR MODERATE
BREEZE (7 TO 16 KNOTS). EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL WARMING FROM THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING
SEASONABLE AT THE LOW TO MID 60S, EXCEPTION BEING HAINES AND
SKAGWAY WHICH COULD BE A BIT WARMER AND DRIER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS SATURDAY BEFORE SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THAT AREA.
DESPITE THIS LOW WEAKENING AND MOVING BACK OUT INTO THE GULF,
INTERACTION OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN INTERIOR WILL LEAD TO SOME CONTINUES
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO MONDAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THIS AND WHAT TO EXPECT LATER NEXT WEEK, SEE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION
LONG TERM.../MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND/
KEY MESSAGES:
-OVERALL DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS LIKELY FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
-LINGERING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
-A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPS FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
-MARINE WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE NEXT WEEK AT
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME ISOLATED TROUBLE SPOTS GETTING UP
TO 15 KNOTS.
DISCUSSION:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN AND LINGER IN THE GULF EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL BRING SOME ONSHORE FLOW, MEANING SOME
LOW-END CHANCES FOR RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, THOSE THAT SEE ANY RAIN
WILL SEE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WITH 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT AROUND
0.25 INCHES OR LESS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY'S 24 HOUR
AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LIGHTER.
AFTER THE LINGERING LOW FINALLY MOVES ON AND OUT OF THE AREA MID-
WEEK, A POTENTIAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE IN. THIS
WOULD BRING DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER. SO
SUNNIER SKIES ARE LOOKING LIKELY LATER NEXT WEEK. WITH SUNNIER
SKIES COMES WARMER TEMPS, WITH HIGHS WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S TO
THE NEAR 70 FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A BROAD BRUSH LOOK AT THE MARINE WIND SPEEDS IS LOOKING QUIET WITH
WIND SPEEDS LOOKING TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH THE USUAL
TROUBLE SPOTS POTENTIALLY GETTING UP TO 15 KNOTS. SO OVERALL, NOT
TOO BAD FOR LATE AUGUST.
AVIATION
/00Z TAF PERIOD/
FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LLWS FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE MUCH OF TONIGHT AS THE
STRONGER FLOW UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE PASSING LOW OFF PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT A BIT. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR LLWS NORTHWARD TO NEAR SITKA AND JUNEAU BY MORNING AS THAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS TIGHTENS A BIT. THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PANHANDLE
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OFFSHORE OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. LIGHT
RAIN IS GENERALLY BEING OBSERVED OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH METLAKATLA AND
KETCHIKAN SEEING THE LOWEST CIGS AT THE PRESENT TIME AT LOWER END
MVFR AROUND 1,000 FT AGL. OVERALL, THE GENERAL TREND OVERNIGHT
WILL BE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO GO TO MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 2,500 FT
AND VSBYS 3 TO 5 MILES IN RAIN LATE AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
KETCHIKAN WILL HAVE PERIODS OF CIGS IFR THIS EVENING, WITH A TREND
TOWARD MVFR PREVAILING LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MORNING. CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE LOW
SHIFTS A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH YAKUTAT HANGING IN AROUND
LOWER END MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
MARINE
SYNOPSIS: A WEAKENING LOW PUSHES NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA, SENDING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS INTO THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
INSIDE WATERS: WINDS UP TO STRONG BREEZE (22 TO 27 KNOTS) MOVING
FROM CLARENCE STRAIT NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE, REACHING SOUTHERN STEPHENS PASSAGE SUNDAY
MORNING. ON SUNDAY, THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
WESTWARD BEFORE ROTATING SOUTHWARD OUT INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA,
WEAKENING FURTHER AND ALLOWING WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS TO
RELAX DOWN TO GENTLE OR MODERATE BREEZE (7 TO 16 KNOTS) LATE SUNDAY.
OUTSIDE WATERS: FOR TONIGHT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 10 FT FROM DIXON
ENTRANCE NORTH TO CAPE DECISION OFFSHORE ABOUT 50 NM, WHERE THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF, WE DO EXPECT TO SEE THE AREAS
OF TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTING NORTH FROM CAPE DECISION
TO ICY CAPE AND OUT 85 NAUTICAL MILES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH WINDS
AT TIMES 25 TO 30 KTS SUSTAINED. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, WE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH OVER THE EASTERN
GULF BY MONDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...JG
MARINE...JG
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