126
FXAK67 PAJK 171433
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
633 AM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2025
SHORT TERM
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A SIGHT ALL TOO
FAMILIAR TO RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AS OF THE TIME OF
WRITING - A LOW IN THE GULF, WITH RAIN IN THE PANHANDLE. WHILE
DRIER WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON, WITH CHANCES FOR DRIER WEATHER
(OR MORE REALISTICALLY, MORE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS), IN THE WORKS
FOR PARTS OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE REMAINDER OF THE CURRENT
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE RAIN AS THE BIG STORY FOR THE
AREA.
LOOKING ALOFT, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS
QUASI-STATIONARY LOCATION ACROSS THE GULF, ITS POSITION STILL
LARGELY ENTRENCHED BY A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, THIS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WHAT IS
BY NOW A DECAYING SURFACE REFLECTION (LOW) OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
THIS LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY COMPLETING A BROAD CYCLONIC
LOOP AROUND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND IN PROXIMITY TO THE
PANHANDLE, ITS OVERALL MOTION LARGELY DEPENDING ON INJECTIONS OF
ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND SUBSEQUENT PHASING FROM DEVELOPING SYSTEMS
UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, THE
ACTUAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, BEFORE ITS REMNANTS
ARE DRAGGED INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF AK BY ONE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES FROM UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH, AND AFTER
SOME REDEVELOPMENT, EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHERN BC/THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS, SEE THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
FOR SE AK PROPER, THIS MEANS RAIN. AS THE CURRENT LOW STEERS CLOSE
TO THE OUTER COAST THROUGH SUNDAY, BANDS OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
ONSHORE FLOW RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA. IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS DAYS HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY, WHERE THE
BULK OF THE REMAINING ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOWS
FRONTAL BANDS HAS CONSOLIDATED. QPF WON'T BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE,
WITH TOTALS OF UP TO 0.5 INCHES NEAR SEA LEVEL, AND APPROACHING 1.0
INCH IN ELEVATED TERRAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY, ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
ONWARDS, FEATURES THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES:
-OVERALL DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS LIKELY FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
-LINGERING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
-A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPS FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
-MARINE WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE NEXT WEEK AT
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME ISOLATED TROUBLE SPOTS GETTING UP
TO 15 KNOTS.
DISCUSSION:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN AND LINGER IN THE GULF EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL BRING SOME ONSHORE FLOW, MEANING SOME
LOW-END CHANCES FOR RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, THOSE THAT SEE ANY RAIN
WILL SEE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WITH 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT AROUND
0.25 INCHES OR LESS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY'S 24 HOUR
AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LIGHTER.
AFTER THE LINGERING LOW FINALLY MOVES ON AND OUT OF THE AREA MID-
WEEK, A POTENTIAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE IN. THIS
WOULD BRING DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER. SO
SUNNIER SKIES ARE LOOKING LIKELY LATER NEXT WEEK. WITH SUNNIER
SKIES COMES WARMER TEMPS, WITH HIGHS WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S TO
THE NEAR 70 FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A BROAD BRUSH LOOK AT THE MARINE WIND SPEEDS IS LOOKING QUIET WITH
WIND SPEEDS LOOKING TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH THE USUAL
TROUBLE SPOTS POTENTIALLY GETTING UP TO 15 KNOTS. SO OVERALL, NOT
TOO BAD FOR LATE AUGUST.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z MONDAY/
CIG & VIS CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM THE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY RANGE UP TO THE VFR/MVFR RANGE
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD AS THE
WEAKENING LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA
CHANGES DIRECTION IN MOVEMENT, PULLING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLE. SFC WINDS WILL PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES MORE & MORE AS TIME PASSES & THE LOW CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN & PULL AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE. LLWS VALUES HAVE BECOME
RELATIVELY BENIGN & WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
LARGELY TAPER OFF DOWN TO MODERATE BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS A FRONTAL BAND DEPARTS THE PANHANDLE, BARRING CLARENCE
STRAIT AND LYNN CANAL, WHICH COULD STILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP
TO 15 KT. ANTICIPATE THESE LOWER WINDS FOR MOST CHANNELS TO REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH WINDS BEING 10 KT OR W ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.
SEAS WILL LIKEWISE SUBSIDE FOR MOST INNER CHANNELS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE WATERS: EARLY MORNING WINDS OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
SWIFTLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KT TAKING THEIR PLACE, AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY AS A DECAYING
LOW SHIFTS SOUTH, AND A WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO TRY AND BUILD OVER
THE GULF. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7-8 FEET WILL BE SUBSIDING TO 3-6 FEET
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY
INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT WAVE PERIOD IS ~10 SECONDS WITH A W SWELL OF
3 FEET.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031-641>644-651-661>663.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...GFS
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