999
FXAK67 PAJK 171752
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
952 AM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2025
UPDATE
AVIATION UPDATE FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
SHORT TERM
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A SIGHT ALL TOO
FAMILIAR TO RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AS OF THE TIME OF
WRITING - A LOW IN THE GULF, WITH RAIN IN THE PANHANDLE. WHILE
DRIER WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON, WITH CHANCES FOR DRIER WEATHER
(OR MORE REALISTICALLY, MORE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS), IN THE WORKS
FOR PARTS OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE REMAINDER OF THE CURRENT
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE RAIN AS THE BIG STORY FOR THE
AREA.
LOOKING ALOFT, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS
QUASI-STATIONARY LOCATION ACROSS THE GULF, ITS POSITION STILL
LARGELY ENTRENCHED BY A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, THIS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WHAT IS
BY NOW A DECAYING SURFACE REFLECTION (LOW) OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
THIS LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY COMPLETING A BROAD CYCLONIC
LOOP AROUND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND IN PROXIMITY TO THE
PANHANDLE, ITS OVERALL MOTION LARGELY DEPENDING ON INJECTIONS OF
ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND SUBSEQUENT PHASING FROM DEVELOPING SYSTEMS
UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, THE
ACTUAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, BEFORE ITS REMNANTS
ARE DRAGGED INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF AK BY ONE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES FROM UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH, AND AFTER
SOME REDEVELOPMENT, EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHERN BC/THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS, SEE THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
FOR SE AK PROPER, THIS MEANS RAIN. AS THE CURRENT LOW STEERS CLOSE
TO THE OUTER COAST THROUGH SUNDAY, BANDS OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
ONSHORE FLOW RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA. IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS DAYS HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY, WHERE THE
BULK OF THE REMAINING ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOWS
FRONTAL BANDS HAS CONSOLIDATED. QPF WON'T BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE,
WITH TOTALS OF UP TO 0.5 INCHES NEAR SEA LEVEL, AND APPROACHING 1.0
INCH IN ELEVATED TERRAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY, ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
ONWARDS, FEATURES THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES:
-OVERALL DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS LIKELY FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
-LINGERING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
-A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPS FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
-MARINE WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE NEXT WEEK AT
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME ISOLATED TROUBLE SPOTS GETTING UP
TO 15 KNOTS.
DISCUSSION:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN AND LINGER IN THE GULF EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL BRING SOME ONSHORE FLOW, MEANING SOME
LOW-END CHANCES FOR RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, THOSE THAT SEE ANY RAIN
WILL SEE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WITH 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT AROUND
0.25 INCHES OR LESS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY'S 24 HOUR
AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LIGHTER.
AFTER THE LINGERING LOW FINALLY MOVES ON AND OUT OF THE AREA MID-
WEEK, A POTENTIAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE IN. THIS
WOULD BRING DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER. SO
SUNNIER SKIES ARE LOOKING LIKELY LATER NEXT WEEK. WITH SUNNIER
SKIES COMES WARMER TEMPS, WITH HIGHS WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S TO
THE NEAR 70 FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A BROAD BRUSH LOOK AT THE MARINE WIND SPEEDS IS LOOKING QUIET WITH
WIND SPEEDS LOOKING TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH THE USUAL
TROUBLE SPOTS POTENTIALLY GETTING UP TO 15 KNOTS. SO OVERALL, NOT
TOO BAD FOR LATE AUGUST.
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS MORNING PRIMARILY DUE TO CIGS AS
LOW AS 1000 FT, PARTICULARLY IN LYNN CANAL AND PARTS OF ICY STRAIT.
WHILE THE PANHANDLE FROM ICY STRAIT NORTHWARD WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOCKED IN WITH CIGS AT OR BELOW 2500 FT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
CONTINUING RAIN SHOWERS REDUCING VIS, FROM ANGOON SOUTHWARD THE
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ALONG WITH RAIN
SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN PUSHING UP FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE SURFACE
LOW CONTINUING TO DRIFT OUT INTO THE GULF, LLWS CONCERNS HAVE
ALSO COME TO AN END WITH SURFACE WINDS ON A DOWNWARD TREND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: WITH RISING PRESSURES IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF,
WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE NW AND INCREASED
TO MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE (11 - 21 KNOTS). WITH VERY LIGHT SW
SWELL, EXPECTING WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE A MARINE
LAYER DEVELOP, BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND DROPPING VISIBILITIES DOWN
TO ONE MILE, PARTICULARLY NEAR CAPE SPENCER.
INSIDE: WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND A RIDGE
BUILDING NORTH AND WEST OF THE PANHANDLE, THIS HAS LEAD TO A
MOSTLY LIGHT TO NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN FOR THE INSIDE WATERS FOR
TUESDAY. SEVERAL LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE IMPACTED WITH INCREASED
WINDS AS THE TROUGH DIGS, MAINLY EAST WEST CHANNELS. ICY STRAIT
AND CROSS SOUND, IN PARTICULAR, WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE INCREASED WINDS
FROM A TIGHTENING GRADIENT TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE RELAXING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. SIMILARLY, EASTERN
FREDERICK SOUND ZONE JUST NORTH OF PETERSBURG AND SUMNER STRAIT
LOOK TO SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS TO A MODERATE
BREEZE (11 TO 16 KNOTS).
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-644-651-663.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...GFS
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