386
FXAK67 PAJK 172332
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
332 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2025
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
LIGHT RAIN STICKS
AROUND FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE.
KEY MESSAGES:
-EASTERLY WAVE WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE.
-SOUTHERN HALF WILL HAVE DIMINISHING SHOWERS WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT.
-WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE LOW IN THE GULF
WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE.
DETAILS: GENERAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF WILL WEAKEN AND
SLIDE SOUTHWARD. AS IT DOES, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
PANHANDLE WILL LIGHTEN UP AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE OR
REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, ELDRED ROCK HAS BEEN
REPORTING 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DROP BELOW 20 KTS LATER THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED DECREASING
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS, THERE ARE TWO WEATHER PATTERNS HAPPENING OVER
THE AREA - DIURNAL POP-UP SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND AN EASTERLY WAVE
IN THE NORTH. THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH WILL, FOR THE MOST PART,
DECREASE IN NUMBER ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN. ANY EXCEPTIONS TO THIS
WILL BE CAUSED BY A ROGUE SHOWER THAT DRIFTS IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE BUT THEY WOULDN'T LAST LONG. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE
CLEARER AND AN OVERALL QUIET NIGHT WITH THE QUIET WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY.
FOR THE NORTHERN SHOWERS, THESE ARE COMING FROM AN EASTERLY WAVE
THAT IS BRINGING THE MOISTURE IN FROM CANADA. A REINFORCING 500MB
VORT MAX WILL KEEP HIGH THE POPS IN PLACE UNTIL AROUND 10AM TO NOON
MONDAY. THAT'S WHEN THE SHOWERS LOOK TO REALLY DECREASE WITH THE
DRIER WEATHER LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THOSE CHANCES
MOVE INLAND LATER IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM.../INTO NEXT WEEKEND/
OVERALL DRYING TREND LATE THIS
WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS LIKELY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES:
-LINGERING LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL GIVE SOME RAIN AND
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES MID-WEEK. 24 HOUR RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
-A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AFTERWARDS WILL BRING DRIER
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
-MARINE WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE NEXT WEEK AT
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME ISOLATED TROUBLE SPOTS GETTING UP
TO 15 KNOTS DUE TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT.
DISCUSSION: A PASSING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE PANHANDLE MID-WEEK. GREATEST POPS ARE IN THE
SOUTH WITH LOWER POPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. RAIN
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE SHOWERS.
AFTER THE LINGERING LOW FINALLY MOVES ON AND OUT OF THE AREA MID-
WEEK, A POTENTIAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE IN. THIS
WOULD BRING DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER. SO
SUNNIER SKIES ARE LOOKING LIKELY LATER NEXT WEEK. WITH SUNNIER SKIES
COMES WARMER TEMPS, WITH HIGHS WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE NEAR
70 FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE BREAKS BREAKS
BETWEEN SHOWERS SHOW UP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE PRIMARY
CIRCULATION IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO SLIDE WESTWARD, WITH SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS GRADUALLY FALLING AS A RESULT.
LAST HOLDOUTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE THE FAR NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS. STILL NO LLWS CONCERNS FOR THE TAF PERIOD GOING
FORWARD. FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS WELL AS YAKUTAT WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY NEAR
TAIYA INLET DUE TO LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE
HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR CONDITIONS, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY
DUE TO ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.
WHILE JUST OUTSIDE THE CURRENT TAF WINDOW, THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
CAN EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING FROM A SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM HAIDA GWAII.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: WIND DIRECTIONS OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS LOOK TO START OFF
OUT OF THE SE, THEN STEADILY BACK TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS TO NEAR HAIDA GWAII. THIS LOW LOOKS TO CAUSE SOME ENHANCED
WINDS TO AROUND 15KT OUT OF DIXON ENTRANCE. THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP 10KT OR LESS WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK, VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH DIRECTIONS SHIFTING DUE TO SEA
BREEZE INFLUENCES. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL EASTERN
GULF EARLY TUESDAY, NWLY WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER
COAST TO AROUND 15KT. A NEW LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED 20-25KT
AS RESULT, BUT SOME MODELS SHOW WINDS WITH THIS LOW UP TO 35KT
WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
INSIDE: WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS WILL BE
DIURNALLY INFLUENCE BY SUNSHINE MOST OF THE WEEK, MEANING LIGHT
DRAINAGE WINDS IN THE MORNING, SHIFTING TO A SEA BREEZE 10-15KT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WAS ENHANCED WINDS
NEAR ELDRED ROCK REPORTING 20-25KT. THE M/V HUBBARD CONFIRMED THIS
ON THEIR WAY TO HAINES/SKAGWAY AND THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED UP
TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS
LOW PRESS MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS WEEK, WINDS THROUGH
THE INNER CHANNELS WILL WANT TO TURN OUT OF THE NORTH.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...FERRIN/GJS
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...FERRIN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page