468
FXAK67 PAJK 181323
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
523 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2025
SHORT TERM
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT 3 SEPARATE
WEATHER REGIMES ACROSS SE AK THIS MONDAY MORNING. FROM THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTHWARD, THE REMNANTS OF A DECAYING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN ACROSS THE THE AREA. IN THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE, RAIN HAS DEPARTED AND CLEARING SKIES ARE SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A WARMER DAY AHEAD, WITH THE FOG THAT FORMED IN SOME
LOCATIONS DEPARTING ONCE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE LATER IN THE
MORNING. IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, CLOUD COVER HAS STARTED TO
REBUILD AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION (LOW) SOUTHWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE PANHANDLE. THIS HAS RESULTED THE LOW'S FRONTAL BAND,
STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE, BEING CUT OFF FROM
ANY ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, IT WILL ALSO
LEAVE ROOM FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE NE GULF OF AK. THE
END RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED DRIER WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT, ANTICIPATE THAT THE FRONT
WILL HAVE DISINTEGRATED ENTIRELY, AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE
FOR ALL OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE - EXCEPT FOR
YAKUTAT, WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRINGING CHANCES OF
RAIN.
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE A MIX OF BOTH WORLDS. WHILE CHANCES
OF RAIN REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY,
RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY BEGIN TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF MONDAY AS THE LOW WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY SWUNG SOUTH
BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK UP NE. BY TUESDAY, EXPECT HIGHER
CHANCES OF RAIN TO HAVE FULLY RETURNED TO AREAS FROM PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND AND REVILLAGIGEDO ISLAND ON SOUTHWARD. RAIN WILL
MANAGE TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS WRANGELL AND POTENTIALLY
PETERSBURG THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF TUESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
WINDS WILL BROADLY REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE, WITH THE INNER CHANNELS
SEEING WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
TUESDAY WILL SEE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT POSSIBLE AS THE LOW SENDS A
WEAK BAND NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY STAY IN THE 60S,
AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, BUT LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND 50S MONDAY NIGHT WILL HERALD THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION FOR AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING SKIES.
LONG TERM.../INTO NEXT WEEKEND/
OVERALL DRYING TREND LATE THIS WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS LIKELY FOR
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES:
-LINGERING LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL GIVE SOME RAIN
AND RAIN SHOWER CHANCES MID-WEEK. 24 HOUR RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT.
-A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AFTERWARDS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
-MARINE WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE NEXT WEEK AT
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME ISOLATED TROUBLE SPOTS GETTING UP
TO 15 KNOTS DUE TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT.
DISCUSSION: A PASSING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST
SOME RAIN CHANCES OVER THE PANHANDLE MID-WEEK. GREATEST POPS ARE
IN THE SOUTH WITH LOWER POPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS.
AFTER THE LINGERING LOW FINALLY MOVES ON AND OUT OF THE AREA MID-
WEEK, A POTENTIAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE IN. THIS
WOULD BRING DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER. SO
SUNNIER SKIES ARE LOOKING LIKELY LATER NEXT WEEK. WITH SUNNIER
SKIES COMES WARMER TEMPS, WITH HIGHS WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S TO
THE NEAR 70 FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
EASTERLY WAVE CONTINUES TO BRING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH, WITH CIGS BETWEEN 600 AND 2500 FT BUT MUCH LESS REDUCED VIS
GOING INTO THIS MORNING COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. OVERALL THE
CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN IMPROVING OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE, AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR WILL START TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS FIRST
BY 00Z TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM MVFR TO VFR. FURTHER
NORTH AROUND SKAGWAY AND HAINES IT WILL TAKE THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY FOR
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR. THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST UP
THROUGH YAKUTAT WILL HOLD ONTO PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AS CIGS
STAY JUST ABOVE 3000 FT.
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY STAY
VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PETERSBURG, WRANGELL,
AND SOME CHANNELS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HOLDING ONTO
SOME FOG INTO THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOR THESE FOG-AFFECTED AREAS TO
SEE CIGS OF LESS THAN 500 FT AS WELL AS VIS BETWEEN 1/4 TO 1 SM FROM
THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND 16Z AS THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP
INTO THE LATER MORNING. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL FOR FOG, THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL KEEP SEEING CIGS AND VIS AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, BEFORE SOME PRECIPITATION MOVES UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THE
KETCHIKAN AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME LOWERED FLYING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR INTO TONIGHT AS THE RAIN MOVES IN AROUND 08Z ON TUESDAY,
LARGELY IMPACTING THE AREAS AROUND KETCHIKAN NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH
NO LLWS CONCERNS EXPECTED.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: WINDS REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE MONDAY, WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH WINDS REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 10 KT IN MOST CHANNELS, THOUGH
PARTS OF CHATHAM STRAIT BY POINT GARDNER COULD APPROACH 15 KT DURING
THE DAY. SOME SEA BREEZES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCEAN ENTRANCES, WHERE
SEAS COULD BE HIGHER.
OUTER WATERS: SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO
6 FEET IN THE MORNING (WITH THE HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS), SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET BY
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 KT TO 15 KT, WITH VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY GIVING WAY TO NW
WINDS FOR THE AREAS S OF CROSS SOUND, AND BROADLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE NORTHERN GULF, THOUGH AREAS NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
SHORELINE MAY VEER TOWARDS SE OR SW. CURRENTLY WAVE PERIOD IS ~8
SECONDS FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND ~14 SECONDS FOR
THE NORTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH W SWELL OF 2 FT OR LESS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ326.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...FERRIN
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...GFS
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