465
FXAK67 PAJK 182321
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
321 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2025
SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO
BRING SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY.
- A RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AND KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION LIGHT.
- CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WIND, WITH CONTINUED HIGH RH WILL HELP
DEVELOP FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.
DETAILS: A LOW POSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE,
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. TIMES OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING, BUT 24 HOUR RAIN
TOTALS REMAIN LOW. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 40% TO 60% CHANCE OF
GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS FOR THE KETCHIKAN AND
ANNETTE ISLAND AREAS. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL START TO SEE
CLEARING SKIES AND A MAINLY DRY DAY ON TUESDAY. DUE TO THE RIDGE IN
THE GULF, SOME ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING ISOLATED TIMES OF LIGHT RAIN
TO SOME NORTHERN AREAS.
ONE MAIN CONCERN FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. AS WE START TO SEE
CLEARING SKIES, DAY TIME HEATING CAN INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM POTENTIAL STORMS, IS THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THAT CAN OCCUR QUICKLY.
OTHERWISE, WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. LAND
AREAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 10 TO 15 MPH. ON TUESDAY, CLEARING
SKIES MAY HELP TO INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY, IN ISOLATED AREAS, DUE TO
SEA BREEZES.
OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LOOKING LIKELY
AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING AREAS OF
FOG.
LONG TERM.../INTO NEXT WEEKEND/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN WILL TRICKLE OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- RIDGING ALLOWS FOR DRIER, MORE CLEAR WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK
- NEXT LOW WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
CLEAR SKIES IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAVE SPREAD NORTHWARDS INTO
TUESDAY. A LINGERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH IS
BRINGING SOME RAIN CHANCES UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL SLOWLY TRAVEL UP THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE SOUTH ALREADY SEEING
LIGHT RAIN STARTING. THE NORTH WILL START TO SEE POPS AND CLOUD
COVER INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 24 HOUR RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT, WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 10 KTS FOR MOST COMMUNITIES.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING THROUGH MID WEEK, BRINGING
DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE WEEKEND.
REMAINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TRICKLE OUT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR SUN TO PEAK OUT THURSDAY. THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL END THE DAY BEING MOSTLY SUNNY, WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL START TO SEE CLOUD COVER PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. A WEAKER LOW IN THE GULF IS LOOKING
TO SEND A FRONT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY, BUT
MODELS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE
PANHANDLE OR NOT. THE EC WANTS TO INCREASE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, BUT THE OTHER MODELS SEEM TO STAY OFF THE COAST. IF
THE PANHANDLE ENDS UP SEEING RAIN, IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
SUNNIER SKIES WILL AID WARMING TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO THE NEAR 70S. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO STAY
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEK AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS AND NORTHERN LYNN CANAL MAY
SEE UP TO 15 KNOTS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER LAND
TEMPERATURES ENHANCING SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
TODAY HAS BEEN A DAY OF IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
AROUND THE PANHANDLE. AND GOING AHEAD INTO TONIGHT, THE AREA COULD
BE SPLIT INTO 2 PARTS - SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT AND NORTH OF SUMNER
STRAIT.
FOR THOSE SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA. AS THESE SHOWERS DRIFT NORTHWARD, THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE REPLACED WITH TIMES OF MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND
VIS.
FOR THOSE NORTH OF SUMNER STRAIT, CLEARING SKIES AND HIGH-END VFR IS
MAINLY EXPECTED. BUT, JUST LIKE WE SAW LAST NIGHT, FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 09Z. THE AREA OF POTENTIAL FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS IS THE KAKE/PETERSBURG/FREDERICK SOUND AREA, NORTH TO THE
ICY STRAIT AREA, INCLUDING HOONAH, GUSTAVUS, AND JUNEAU. ANGOON IS A
POSSIBILITY TOO, BUT THE PROBABILITIES WERE NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
HI-RES MODELS EARLIER TODAY TO INCLUDE. BUT THAT AREA WILL WATCHED
CLOSELY AS WELL.
THE YAKUTAT AREA MAY SEE SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT MVFR TO IFR IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT DUE CLOUDS.
FOR TUESDAY, THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL IMPROVE IN THE
MORNING SO MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. BUT SHOWERS WILL LINGER, SO
BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE.
OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH
NO LLWS CONCERNS EXPECTED.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF TUESDAY MORNING CREATING
NW WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST. WHILE, A LOW TO THE SOUTH
OF THE PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE FAR
SOUTHERN GULF AND DIXON ENTRANCE. WINDS IN THE GULF REMAIN LIGHT
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEA HEIGHTS BELOW 6 FT ACROSS THE AREA.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE GULF AND FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS BECOME ESE
AND INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES OF 17 TO 27 KTS OFFSHORE.
AT THAT TIME, WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 FT WITH A DOMINANT
15 SECOND PERIOD.
INSIDE: WINDS ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE
LOWER SIDE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 10 KTS WITH ISOLATED AREAS DEVELOPING A SEA BREEZE TUESDAY AS
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. TONIGHT, STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MAY CREATE SPORADIC GUSTY WINDS FOR AREAS NEAR CLARENCE
STRAIT. TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE AROUND
TAIYA INLET DUE TO THAT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT, WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 KTS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...EAB
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