856
FXAK67 PAJK 190610 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1010 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2025
..EVENING AND 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR HAIDA
GWAII CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. EASTERLY DRY AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED FOR CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING FROM FREDERICK SOUND
NORTHWARD TO GUSTAVUS. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SATURATED LOW
LEVELS, ANTICIPATING EXPANDED FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ALONG THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR INTO CHATHAM STRAIT AND SOUTHERN LYNN,
INCLUDING GUSTAVUS, HOONAH, ANGOON, AND JUNEAU. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE OVERLAND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS AND MARINE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH STRONGEST
MARINE WINDS WITHIN CLARENCE STRAIT AND SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT.
SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO
BRING SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY.
- A RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AND KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION LIGHT.
- CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WIND, WITH CONTINUED HIGH RH WILL HELP
DEVELOP FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.
DETAILS: A LOW POSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE,
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. TIMES
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING, BUT 24 HOUR
RAIN TOTALS REMAIN LOW. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 40% TO 60% CHANCE
OF GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS FOR THE KETCHIKAN
AND ANNETTE ISLAND AREAS. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL START TO SEE
CLEARING SKIES AND A MAINLY DRY DAY ON TUESDAY. DUE TO THE RIDGE
IN THE GULF, SOME ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING ISOLATED TIMES OF LIGHT
RAIN TO SOME NORTHERN AREAS.
ONE MAIN CONCERN FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. AS WE START
TO SEE CLEARING SKIES, DAY TIME HEATING CAN INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM POTENTIAL STORMS, IS THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THAT CAN OCCUR QUICKLY.
OTHERWISE, WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. LAND
AREAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 10 TO 15 MPH. ON TUESDAY, CLEARING
SKIES MAY HELP TO INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY, IN ISOLATED AREAS, DUE
TO SEA BREEZES.
OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LOOKING LIKELY
AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING AREAS OF
FOG.
LONG TERM.../INTO NEXT WEEKEND/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN WILL TRICKLE OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- RIDGING ALLOWS FOR DRIER, MORE CLEAR WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK
- NEXT LOW WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
CLEAR SKIES IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAVE SPREAD NORTHWARDS INTO
TUESDAY. A LINGERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH IS
BRINGING SOME RAIN CHANCES UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL SLOWLY TRAVEL UP THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE SOUTH ALREADY SEEING
LIGHT RAIN STARTING. THE NORTH WILL START TO SEE POPS AND CLOUD
COVER INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 24 HOUR RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT, WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 10 KTS FOR MOST COMMUNITIES.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING THROUGH MID WEEK, BRINGING
DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE WEEKEND.
REMAINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TRICKLE OUT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR SUN TO PEAK OUT THURSDAY. THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL END THE DAY BEING MOSTLY SUNNY, WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL START TO SEE CLOUD COVER PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. A WEAKER LOW IN THE GULF IS LOOKING
TO SEND A FRONT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY, BUT
MODELS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE
PANHANDLE OR NOT. THE EC WANTS TO INCREASE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, BUT THE OTHER MODELS SEEM TO STAY OFF THE COAST. IF
THE PANHANDLE ENDS UP SEEING RAIN, IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
SUNNIER SKIES WILL AID WARMING TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO THE NEAR 70S. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO STAY
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEK AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS AND NORTHERN LYNN CANAL MAY
SEE UP TO 15 KNOTS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER LAND
TEMPERATURES ENHANCING SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
/06 TAFS/
DIMINISHING LOW NEAR HAIDA GWAII CONTINUES TO SPLIT THE PANHANDLE
IN TWO WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS WEAK FRONT PUSHES INLAND. AS OF 10PM MONDAY, GENERAL
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH CIGS AOB 7000FT.
LONE OUTSIDER BEING YAKUTAT WHICH REMAINS SOCKED INTO MVFR DOWN TO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOB 1500FT. THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT,
ANTICIPATING GENERAL VFR TO MVFR TRENDS TO CONTINUE, INTERMITTENT
RAIN WILL BECOME PREVAILING FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. VISBYS
AND CEILING DECREASE FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR BY 12Z
TUESDAY. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR IFR TO LIFR VISBYS AND CIGS FOR
TAF SITES ALONG AND NORTHWARD OF FREDERICK SOUND UP TO THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR.
THROUGH TUESDAY, ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
THROUGH THE DAY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, ANTICIPATING RAIN TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT FOR WRANGELL
SOUTHWARD DOWN TO KETCHIKAN AND KLAWOCK BY 12Z THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD, WITH MVFR TO VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY 00Z.
HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH TONIGHT, GOING NEAR CALM AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z INTO
MONDAY MORNING. NO LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF TUESDAY MORNING CREATING
NW WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST. WHILE, A LOW TO THE SOUTH
OF THE PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE FAR
SOUTHERN GULF AND DIXON ENTRANCE. WINDS IN THE GULF REMAIN LIGHT
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEA HEIGHTS BELOW 6 FT ACROSS THE AREA.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE GULF AND FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS BECOME ESE
AND INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES OF 17 TO 27 KTS OFFSHORE.
AT THAT TIME, WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 FT WITH A DOMINANT
15 SECOND PERIOD.
INSIDE: WINDS ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE
LOWER SIDE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 10 KTS WITH ISOLATED AREAS DEVELOPING A SEA BREEZE TUESDAY
AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. TONIGHT, STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY CREATE SPORADIC GUSTY WINDS FOR AREAS NEAR
CLARENCE STRAIT. TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE
AROUND TAIYA INLET DUE TO THAT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT, WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 KTS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...EAB
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