220
FXAK67 PAJK 191347
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
547 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES:
-LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO
BRING SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY.
-DRIER WEATHER AND CLEARER SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY.
-FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
DRY WEATHER (FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE), RAIN (FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT), AND FOG (FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE) ARE ALL IN STORE AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING, WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS A WEAKENING LOW WORKS ITS WAY NORTH. THE FOG
WILL DEPART THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER WEATHER FROM SITKA ON NORTHWARD UNTIL
TUESDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE GULF. AREAS IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE - PARTICULARLY THOSE CLOSER TO BC AND FURTHER
FROM THE OUTER COAST (HYDER, KETCHIKAN, ET AL.) WILL SEE CHANCES
OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE LOW DEPARTS INTO BC
AND DRY WEATHER ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY.
SOME CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF FLATTENS
AND A WEAK WAVE FROM THE LOW TRIES TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD,
ALLOWING MORE ONSHORE FLOW, BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. OTHERWISE, THE BIG STORY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS, MOST ACROSS THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS, BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ON THE DRIER
SIDE. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH 5 TO
10 KT WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF 15 KT WINDS
WILL MOVE FROM S TO N ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW STEERS NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL HOVER AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MANY AREAS, AND A FEW
LOCATIONS WITH CLEARER SKIES COULD SEE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 40S FOR AREAS WITHOUT
CLOUD COVER AND INTO THE 50S FOR AREAS WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE, WITH THE
INNER CHANNELS SEEING WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, WITH THE 15 KT WINDS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING WHEN THE LOW TRIES TO SEND A WEAK BAND SURGING
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY STAY IN THE 60S, AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, BUT LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S
MONDAY NIGHT WILL HERALD THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION
FOR AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING SKIES.
LONG TERM.../INTO NEXT WEEKEND/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN WILL TRICKLE OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- RIDGING ALLOWS FOR DRIER, MORE CLEAR WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK
- NEXT LOW WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
CLEAR SKIES IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAVE SPREAD NORTHWARDS INTO
TUESDAY. A LINGERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH IS
BRINGING SOME RAIN CHANCES UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL SLOWLY TRAVEL UP THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE SOUTH ALREADY SEEING
LIGHT RAIN STARTING. THE NORTH WILL START TO SEE POPS AND CLOUD
COVER INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 24 HOUR RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT, WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 10 KTS FOR MOST COMMUNITIES.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING THROUGH MID WEEK, BRINGING
DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE WEEKEND.
REMAINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TRICKLE OUT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR SUN TO PEAK OUT THURSDAY. THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL END THE DAY BEING MOSTLY SUNNY, WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL START TO SEE CLOUD COVER PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. A WEAKER LOW IN THE GULF IS LOOKING
TO SEND A FRONT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY, BUT
MODELS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE
PANHANDLE OR NOT. THE EC WANTS TO INCREASE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, BUT THE OTHER MODELS SEEM TO STAY OFF THE COAST. IF
THE PANHANDLE ENDS UP SEEING RAIN, IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
SUNNIER SKIES WILL AID WARMING TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO THE NEAR 70S. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO STAY
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEK AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS AND NORTHERN LYNN CANAL MAY
SEE UP TO 15 KNOTS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER LAND
TEMPERATURES ENHANCING SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
THE LOW OVER HAIDA GWAII PUSHING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM VFR
TO MVFR THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, WITH CIGS DROPPING TO BELOW 3000 FT
FOR AREAS AROUND KETCHIKAN AND KLAWOCK WHERE RAIN WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT KETCHIKAN EARLIER AT AROUND
15Z BEFORE MVFR CONDITIONS BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS MORE OF
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY 20Z. AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES NORTHWARD,
OTHER AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAY SEE RAIN,
HOWEVER CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 3500 FT FOR AREAS
AROUND PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL EVEN AS RAIN MOVES IN, LEAVING THE
MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT VFR BY 00Z. AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE COASTLINE, SOME ONSHORE FLOW WILL
SET UP AND BRING ANOTHER DROP FROM VFR TO MVFR ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z TONIGHT WITH CIGS DROPPING TO AOB
1500 FT.
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING
IS A DENSE LAYER OF FOG ACROSS ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, IMPACTING
GUSTAVUS, HOONAH, AND ANGOON IN PARTICULAR WITH 1/4SM VIS. SOME
BROKEN FOG IS EXPECTED AROUND THE JUNEAU, SKAGWAY, AND HAINES
AREAS THAT MAY DROP VIS BETWEEN 2 TO 4SM DURING THE MORNING AS
THE SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR UP ALONG NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.
CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR UP AND RETURN TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z TODAY.
THIS WILL LAST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE UNTIL
AROUND 06Z TO 08Z WHERE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DROP CIGS TO AOB
1500 FT WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS TO 4 TO 6SM TONIGHT. YAKUTAT WILL
STAY LARGELY LOW END MVFR TO IFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY, DUE TO DROPS
TO CIGS BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 FT. SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
YAKUTAT AREA AROUND 00Z ARE EXPECTED TO BRING FURTHER VIS
RESTRICTIONS ALONGSIDE DROPS TO LIFR WITH 300 TO 400 FT CIGS.
OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE
HIGHEST WINDS BEING AROUND SKAGWAY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NO LLWS
CONCERNS EXPECTED.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: FOG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. WINDS REMAIN ON THE
LOWER SIDE TUESDAY, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE WIND STRENGTHEN UP TO 15 KT FROM S TO N
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK LOW MOVES
THROUGH. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FT OR LESS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OCEAN ENTRANCES, WHICH COULD BE HIGHER.
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
OF 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 KT TO 15
KT, GOING FROM GENERALLY NW TO W THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CURRENT
WAVE PERIOD OF ~12-14 SECONDS, AND A W SWELL OF 2 FT OR LESS.
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SE ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW MOVES UP FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ320-321-
324.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...GFS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page