270
FXAK67 PAJK 200529
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
929 PM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2025
UPDATE
AVIATION UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE 06Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM
A LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND HAIDA GWAII
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH, CLEAR SKIES PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE EXCEPT YAKUTAT WHICH IS CURRENTLY SEEING OVERCAST SKIES.
THE RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE DISSIPATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOMORROW BUT WILL
LIKELY BE DELAYED BY SOME FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FOR MOST PLACES BUT SOME GUSTY
ESPECIALLY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS TOMORROW MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON WITH THE CLEAR
SKIES.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CLOUDS MOVE IN AS A WEAKENING LOW REACHES THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY
- RAIN WILL LAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY
WITH A WEAKENING LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
PANHANDLE WILL END THE DAY SEEING SOME SUN, WHILE AN OVERCAST DECK
PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE PRECEDING AN OCCLUDING FRONT
ATTEMPTING TO REACH THE OUTER COAST. LOW POPS BEGIN TO RETURN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT, SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN OUTER
COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY AND TRICKLING OUT SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN
WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ENOUGH TO IMPACT INTERIOR REGIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE. SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, KEEPING SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DRY AND SUNNY.
SUNNIER SKIES AND WARM 850 MB TEMPS WILL AID IN HEATING UP THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO THE NEAR 70S INTO THE WEEKEND. CPC 10 AND 14 DAY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A STRONG CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE NORMAL, SO
HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OUTFLOW
WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AT AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS AND NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL MAY FEEL A SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMER LAND TEMPERATURES, THOUGH THIS WON'T GET VERY
STRONG WITH THE COMBATING OUTFLOW WINDS.
AVIATION
ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COULD LEAD
TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS WOULD GIVE LOW CONDITIONS DOWN TO
IFR FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS, FOR NOW THINKING THE
AREA NEAR JUNEAU TO PETERSBURG. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
NEAR GUSTAVUS, HOONAH, SOUTH TO THE ANGOON.
A BIG VARIABLE THAT COULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE THE
INCOMING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. FOR NOW, AS OF
THE 9PM HOUR, SHOWERS ARE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF SUMNER
STRAIT, GIVING LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. AVIATION CONDITIONS
LIKE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD LATE THIS
EVENING AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE SHOWERS WEAKEN, THE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOMING FEWER, LEADING TO MORE VFR FOR
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE WITH WINDS GETTING AS HIGH AS 15 KT. OTHERWISE,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 5-10 KT FOR THE OUTER COAST.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 2-4 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF THOUGH AS A NEW LOW MOVES NORTHWARD
BRINGING 20-30 KT WINDS WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND AS IT MOVES
NORTH. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONTAL BAND AS
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO JUMP CLOSER TO 10-15 FT SEAS.
INSIDE WATERS: WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST PLACES
CONTINUE TO REPORT WINDS UNDER 10 KT. THERE ARE A FEW PLACES THAT
HAVE JUMPED UP TO 15 KT. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MORE
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE REDEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING TO MIDDAY. AS THE MENTIONED
IN THE OUTSIDE WATERS DISCUSSION MOVES CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESPOND TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE
PANHANDLE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...SF
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