385
FXAK67 PAJK 201835
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1035 AM AKDT WED AUG 20 2025
UPDATE...TO ADD THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE NEAR WRANGELL AND PETERSBURG FOLLOWING THE
WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT. SOME FOG
FORMATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN EARLY THIS MORNING IN POW AFTER SHOWERS
HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND MOISTURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE, WITH KLAWOCK
AND HYDABURG SEEING DENSE FOG OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS THIS MORNING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS
WELL AS PARTS OF PETERSBURG, WRANGELL, AND KETCHIKAN AFTER SHOWERS
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. FOG IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS MORNING.
ONSHORE FLOW FROM RIDGING SET UP JUST OFF THE OUTER COASTLINE OF THE
NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE UP INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND OVERALL
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECREASING IN CHANCE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, IMPACTING
AREAS AROUND AND TO THE NORTH OF ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AS THESE CHANCES
DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT, FOG FORMATION MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT AREAS
ALONG ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND YAKUTAT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTER THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE INNER
CHANNEL AND COASTLINE TODAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS SEEING SOME INCREASED WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A NEW
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING UP WIND
SPEEDS IN THE EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE OUTER COAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A SHIFT FROM ONSHORE FLOW TO MORE OFFSHORE FLOW AS THE LOW
APPROACHES, ALLOWING FOR SOME DRIER WEATHER FROM THE RIDGING OVER
THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE SOME MORE CLEARING IN THE SKY
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, BEFORE THE LOW APPROACHES AND BRINGS SOME
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE WEEK.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CLOUDS MOVE IN AS A WEAKENING LOW REACHES THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY
- RAIN WILL LAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY
WITH A WEAKENING LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
PANHANDLE WILL END THE DAY SEEING SOME SUN, WHILE AN OVERCAST DECK
PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE PRECEDING AN OCCLUDING FRONT
ATTEMPTING TO REACH THE OUTER COAST. LOW POPS BEGIN TO RETURN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT, SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN OUTER
COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY AND TRICKLING OUT SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN
WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ENOUGH TO IMPACT INTERIOR REGIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE. SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, KEEPING SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DRY AND SUNNY.
SUNNIER SKIES AND WARM 850 MB TEMPS WILL AID IN HEATING UP THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO THE NEAR 70S INTO THE WEEKEND. CPC 10 AND 14 DAY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A STRONG CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE NORMAL, SO
HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OUTFLOW
WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AT AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS AND NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL MAY FEEL A SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMER LAND TEMPERATURES, THOUGH THIS WON'T GET VERY
STRONG WITH THE COMBATING OUTFLOW WINDS.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 18Z THURSDAY/
IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
SOUTHEAST ALASKA REGION WILL IMPROVE FROM THE IFR/MVFR RANGE ON
AVERAGE UP TO THE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY BY SOMETIME DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD-IN OVER THE AREA. AREAS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FG OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DIPPING
BACK DOWN INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. WINDS WILL MAINLY STAY ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE FOR MOST AREAS, EXCEPT FOR PAGY & PAHN, WHICH WILL BE
A BIT BREEZY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, TODAY. LLWS VALUES CONTINUE
TO BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE WITH WINDS REMAINING BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KT ALONG THE OUTER COAST
AS A SURFACE RIDGE SITS ALONG THE COASTLINE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND 2-4 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND ALONG THE OUTER COASTLINE AS A LOW BRINGS 20 TO 30 KT WINDS
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND AS IT MOVES NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONTAL BAND AS
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FT SEAS.
SW SWELL EXPECTED WITH A DOMINANT 15 SECOND PERIOD.
INSIDE WATERS: WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
INNER CHANNELS, PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS. AREAS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAVE SEEN SOME INCREASES
TO THE WINDS IN PART DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE RIDGING
SETTING UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THIS HAS BROUGHT SOME 15 TO 20 KT
WINDS ALONG STEPHENS PASSAGE NEAR GRAVE POINT AND SCULL ISLAND, 15
KT WINDS TO SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL, AND 20 KT WINDS TO NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL THIS MORNING. THESE INCREASED WINDS SHOULD LAST INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE DECREASING INTO TODAY, THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR SOME SEA BREEZES IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL SHOULD SEE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT LASTING
LONGER THROUGH THE DAY, DECREASING TO LIGHT WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CONTINO
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...CONTINO
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