719
FXAK67 PAJK 032315
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
315 PM AKDT WED SEP 3 2025
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT / NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
ONGOING FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER
IN PLACE. A LOW LEVEL MARINE DECK IS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
PRINCE OF WALES AND INTO SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT, AND EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT. PATCHES OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN
THE NORMAL REGIONS, BUT ANTICIPATE IT IN HOONAH AND PERHAPS OF
GUSTAVUS.
LONG TERM
SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND, INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN RETURNS TO THE PANHANDLE.
FIRST, AN UPPER LEVEL OVERVIEW: THE RETROGRADED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LOOKS TO BE CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY, WHICH WILL
ENSURE THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL STICK AROUND AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND, KEEPING TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. UPSTREAM, A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE ALEUTIANS LOOKS TO ENHANCE THE RIDGING
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND, WHICH IN TURN LOOKS TO PUSH OUT OUR CENTRAL GULF
UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER SOUTH. BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND, A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, ASSOCIATED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT MOVED SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF BOTH CLOUD
COVER, INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FOR RAIN, NOT EXPECTING HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN, AS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BELOW. THEREFORE, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW (20%-30%
CHANCE), AND CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING THESE TO RAISE ANY HIGHER.
THESE CHANCES LOOK TO BE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NE GULF COAST AND ICY
STRAIT AREA DOWN TO FREDERICK SOUND.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS THE RETURN TO AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH INCREASED RAIN AND WIND. WHILE DETAILS ARE NOT CLEAR
AT THIS TIME, FALL WEATHER DOES LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND THE
CORNER.
AVIATION
THE MARINE LAYER THAT FILLED THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CLARENCE STRAIT THIS MORNING HAS RETREATED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN END
OR OTHERWISE LIFTED AND THINNED OUT AS OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECT IFR CIGS FROM THIS STOUT MARINE LAYER
TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SIMILAR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF IT SPREADING EVEN FURTHER
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING, IMPACTING MORE OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS
FAR NORTH AS SUMNER STRAIT, AS WELL AS SITKA ALONG THE OUTER
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO IT LASTING LONGER INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE IN THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT BEING THE ONLY
NOTABLE FEATURES.
STRONGEST WINDS WEDNESDAY UP TO AND AROUND 15KTS AND ISOLATED GUSTS
UP TO 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN SOME LOCATIONS. NO LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
CONTROL OUR SKIES HERE IN SE AK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE
NORTHERN COASTAL AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT, WHILE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
BARANOF ISLAND, WIND ARE A SOUTHERLY 10 KT. THE SWELL REMAINS OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 3 FT AND 10-16 SECONDS. THESE WIND WAVES ARE BEING
DRIVEN BY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES (17 TO 27 KNOTS) OUT OF THE NW,
HIGHEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF POW AND CAPE FAIRWEATHER. WIND SPEEDS
LOOK TO DECREASE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS.
INSIDE: SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE INNER
CHANNELS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REPORTED WINDS SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
GETTING UP TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS IN THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS, NEAR
POINT COUVERDEN, THE TIGHTER SPOTS IN STEPHEN'S PASSAGE, AND IN
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND STAY LIGHTER INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AGAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO DECREASE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ319-325.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...BEZENEK
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