320
FXAK67 PAJK 040542 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
942 PM AKDT WED SEP 3 2025
..06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION AND EVENING UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. OVERLAND AND INNER CHANNEL
WINDS REMAIN LARGELY 10KTS OR LESS, OUTSIDE OF CLARENCE STRAIT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY SEEING SE-LY 20KT WINDS NEAR SHIP ISLAND.
LOOKING AT SATELLITE, MARINE LAYER HAS CREPT BACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITHIN THE LAST HOUR WITH METLAKATLA,
KETCHIKAN, AND KLAWOCK REPORTING CEILINGS AROUND 300-500FT.
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT, ANTICIPATING SAME GENERAL TRENDS AS
LAST NIGHT, LOW LEVEL MARINE LAYER AND RESULTANT FOG WILL PERSIST
ACROSS OVERLAND AND MARINE AREAS, PRIMARILY WITHIN CLARENCE STRAIT
NORTHWARD TO SUMER STRAIT, WESTERN BARANOF AND CHICHAGOF ISLANDS,
AND INTO THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
GENERAL LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT /
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. A LOW LEVEL MARINE DECK IS ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES AND INTO SOUTHERN CLARENCE
STRAIT, AND EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT. PATCHES
OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE NORMAL REGIONS, BUT ANTICIPATE IT IN
HOONAH AND PERHAPS OF GUSTAVUS.
LONG TERM
SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND, INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN RETURNS TO THE PANHANDLE.
FIRST, AN UPPER LEVEL OVERVIEW: THE RETROGRADED UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL LOOKS TO BE CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL ENSURE THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL STICK AROUND AT
LEAST INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND, KEEPING TEMPERATURES ELEVATED.
UPSTREAM, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE ALEUTIANS LOOKS TO
ENHANCE THE RIDGING NEAR KODIAK ISLAND, WHICH IN TURN LOOKS TO
PUSH OUT OUR CENTRAL GULF UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER SOUTH. BY EARLY
THIS WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF,
ASSOCIATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD IN WAKE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVED SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER
OF BOTH CLOUD COVER, INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
FOR RAIN, NOT EXPECTING HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN, AS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BELOW. THEREFORE, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW (20%-30%
CHANCE), AND CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING THESE TO RAISE ANY HIGHER.
THESE CHANCES LOOK TO BE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NE GULF COAST AND
ICY STRAIT AREA DOWN TO FREDERICK SOUND.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS THE RETURN TO AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH INCREASED RAIN AND WIND. WHILE DETAILS ARE NOT CLEAR
AT THIS TIME, FALL WEATHER DOES LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND THE
CORNER.
AVIATION
VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL PANHANDLE TAFS THIS
EVENING AS MARINE LAYER HAS BEGUN TO RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ONGOING AT KETCHIKAN
AND KLAWOCK. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TAF SITES, VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL SCT DECK AOA 10,000FT.
FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ANTICIPATING AFOREMENTIONED
MARINE LAYER TO PERSIST AND CONTINUE TO EXPAND, MOVING INTO THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR TOWARDS GUSTAVUS, SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BARANOF
ISLAND COAST, AND A RESURGENCE NORTHWARD OUT OF DIXON ENTRANCE
TOWARDS ANNETTE ISLAND AND THE KETCHIKAN BOROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH CIGS AOB 700FT
AND REDUCED VISBYS AS LOW AS 1/4SM AT TIMES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
YESTERDAY, ALBEIT THINKING MARINE LAYER WILL HANGING AROUND A BIG
LONGER, ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE BY 22Z THURSDAY.
WINDS LARGELY RETURN NEAR 5KTS OR LESS AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY UP TO AND AROUND
15KTS AND GUSTS UP TO POSSIBLE 25KTS UNDER ANY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS. NO LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
CONTROL OUR SKIES HERE IN SE AK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE
NORTHERN COASTAL AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT, WHILE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
BARANOF ISLAND, WIND ARE A SOUTHERLY 10 KT. THE SWELL REMAINS OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT 3 FT AND 10-16 SECONDS. THESE WIND WAVES ARE BEING
DRIVEN BY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES (17 TO 27 KNOTS) OUT OF THE NW,
HIGHEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF POW AND CAPE FAIRWEATHER. WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TO DECREASE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
INSIDE: SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE
INNER CHANNELS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REPORTED WINDS SPEEDS HAVE
BEEN GETTING UP TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS IN THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS,
NEAR POINT COUVERDEN, THE TIGHTER SPOTS IN STEPHEN'S PASSAGE, AND
IN SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND STAY LIGHTER INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE PICKING
BACK UP AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO DECREASE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...BEZENEK
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