882
FXAK67 PAJK 041349
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
549 AM AKDT THU SEP 4 2025
SHORT TERM
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. A LOW LEVEL MARINE DECK IS ALONG
THE OUTER COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS,
AND EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO SPREAD EVEN FURTHER NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT. PATCHES OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER SOME PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE LAYER.
LONG TERM
SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND, INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN RETURNS TO THE PANHANDLE.
FIRST, AN UPPER LEVEL OVERVIEW: THE RETROGRADED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LOOKS TO BE CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY, WHICH WILL
ENSURE THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL STICK AROUND AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND, KEEPING TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. UPSTREAM, A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE ALEUTIANS LOOKS TO ENHANCE THE RIDGING
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND, WHICH IN TURN LOOKS TO PUSH OUT OUR CENTRAL GULF
UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER SOUTH. BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND, A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, ASSOCIATED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT MOVED SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF BOTH CLOUD
COVER, INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FOR RAIN, NOT EXPECTING HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN, AS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BELOW. THEREFORE, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW (20%-30%
CHANCE), AND CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING THESE TO RAISE ANY HIGHER.
THESE CHANCES LOOK TO BE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NE GULF COAST AND ICY
STRAIT AREA DOWN TO FREDERICK SOUND.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS THE RETURN TO AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH INCREASED RAIN AND WIND. WHILE DETAILS ARE NOT CLEAR
AT THIS TIME, FALL WEATHER DOES LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND THE
CORNER.
AVIATION
FLYING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOCATION
DEPENDENT AS A MARINE LAYER EXTENDS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THIS LAYER CONTINUES TO
BRING LOW CIGS AND OR VIS AND ARE REPORTING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO
IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS
WITH THE AREAS IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL OVER THE AREA, THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR LLWS AS RIDGETOP
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
CONTROL OUR SKIES HERE IN SE AK. VARIABLE WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KT
IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. THE SWELL IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT
2 FEET THROUGH THE DAYTIME THURSDAY, BUT INCREASING TO 3-4 FEET,
AND 10-16 SECONDS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
INSIDE: SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE
INNER CHANNELS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REPORTED WINDS SPEEDS HAVE
BEEN GETTING UP TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS IN THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS,
NEAR POINT COUVERDEN, THE TIGHTER SPOTS IN STEPHEN'S PASSAGE, AND
IN SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND STAY LIGHTER INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE PICKING
BACK UP AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO DECREASE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. A MARINE
LAYER WILL HOVER AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS
THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY FOG.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ317-328-
330-332.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...GFS
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