588
FXAK67 PAJK 051416
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
616 AM AKDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SHORT TERM
MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO SPREAD THROUGH THE INNER
CHANNELS THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS SEEING EITHER A DROP IN CLOUD
CEILINGS WHILE SOME PLACES ARE REPORTING FOG, SOMETIMES DENSE, AS
WELL WITH THE LOWERED CEILINGS. SOME DRIZZLE IS BEING REPORTED IN
SITKA THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN FOR THE AREA
WITH THE MARINE LAYER MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING. OVERALL, WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY INCREASE DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE YAKUTAT AREA WERE
INCREASED AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING RAIN LOOKS TO
HAVE INCREASED DURING OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS FOR THE HREF AND NBM.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A GRADUAL SHIFT AWAY FROM
THE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN KEEPING US DRY, TO MORE OF A SW FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SE AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES OVER THE BERING SEA AREA BY NEXT WEEK. FOR SE THIS MEANS A
TREND TOWARD COOLER, CLOUDIER, AND DAMPER WEATHER.
AT THE SURFACE, THIS TREND TOWARD COOLER AND DAMPER WILL BE AIDED
BY TWO SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE WEST.
THE FIRST IS A LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE BERING SEA ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST IT WILL GET
BEFORE THE RESIDUAL RIDGE IN THE GULF AND PANHANDLE TEARS IT
APART. YAKUTAT IS THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO SEE LIGHT RAIN OUT OF
THIS FEATURE SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT I CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN GETTING AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE ON MONDAY.
AT THE VERY LEAST, INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN EFFECT
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. SYSTEM NUMBER TWO IS THE EFFECTS
THAT WE WILL SEE FROM A RATHER POTENT BERING SEA LOW MID NEXT WEEK
THAT HAS SOME TROPICAL INFLUENCES. GUIDANCE IS HAVING SOME
TROUBLE PINNING DOWN WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING ON THE FRONT THAT IT SENDS ACROSS THE GULF
WED INTO THU INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF (TO AROUND 20 TO 30
KT) AND BRINGING SOME WETTING RAIN TO THE AREA.
THROUGHOUT ALL OF THIS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING. HIGHS BY
MID NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD 60S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. THESE VALUES ARE STILL A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT ARE NOT THE NEAR
RECORD WARMTH THAT THE PANHANDLE HAS BEEN SEEING THE LAST FEW
DAYS.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY/
IT IS A MESS OUT THERE THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A MARINE LAYER HAS ESTABLISHED
ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN GULF, INNER CHANNELS, & PANHANDLE. THIS
HAS REDUCED CIGS & VISS TO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE FOR MANY AREAS OF
THE PANHANDLE. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN-OUT, LIFT, &
RETREAT DURING THE LATE MORNING & AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MANY AREAS,
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO THE VFR/MVFR CATEGORY RANGE. EARLY THIS
MORNING, THERE ARE A FEW EXCEPTIONS TO THIS RULE. THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE, INCLUDING PAGY, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING CONDITIONS IN THE VFR CATEGORY & SHOULD REMAIN
IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
CENTRAL & NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST & THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR,
INCLUDING PASI, PAYA, & PAGS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE LIFR & MVFR
CATEGORIES THE AS THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS FOR SFC WINDS & LLWS VALUES, THEY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
BENIGN SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED POCKETS OF GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES BEING REPORTED IN
AREAS UNDER THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE MARINE LAYER, VISIBILITIES
ARE DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE IN SOME AREAS AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS AS SEA BREEZES KICK IN LATER TODAY WHICH COULD SEE
SOME PLACES SUCH AS LYNN CANAL SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BUT THIS WINDS WILL
DECREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
AGAIN.
OUTSIDE WATERS: LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE DIXON ENTRANCE
REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE BREEZES. FOR THE REST OF
THE GULF WATERS, GENTLE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST
WINDS ENCOUNTERED DURING THE DAY TODAY. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT HEIGHTS WITH A WESTERLY SWELL COMPONENT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKDT TODAY FOR AKZ321-326-327.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...SF
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