216
FXAK67 PAJK 061756
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
956 AM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2025
UPDATE
INCLUDES DISCUSSION FOR 18Z ISSUANCE OF TAFS.
SHORT TERM
MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING IS COVERING MOST OF THE
LOW LYING AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE LEADING TO A STRATUS LAYER
COVERING THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS THAT ARE EVIDENT IN VIIRS
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS THIS MORNING. BELOW THIS LAYER, SOME AREAS
ARE REPORTING LOWERED VISIBILITIES BUT THESE KEEP GOING UP AND
DOWN. TODAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER DAY OF MARINE LAYER COVERING THE
AREA UNTIL BREAKING UP DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER, SOME TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE STAYED
ON THE WARMER SIDE. HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
LONG TERM
/SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/ UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL CHANGE FROM RIDGING TO A MORE SW FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE STRONG
UPPER TROUGH/LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THIS FEATURE
HOWEVER AS YESTERDAY THE CONSENSUS WAS THAT THAT FEATURE WOULD BE
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THEN WHERE IT IS DEPICTED TODAY. OVERALL
THE MAIN TREND THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD IS COOLER, WETTER,
AND CLOUDIER.
FIRST SYSTEM OF NOTE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR MONDAY, BUT
WILL BE FIGHTING THE REMNANTS OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE AS
IT COMES. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ANY
RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. MOST OF THAT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND MAY ONLY AMOUNT TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH. NE GULF COAST LIKELY WILL GET MORE WITH UPWARD OF AROUND
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST AREAS
CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
AND DIMINISHES OVER THE PANHANDLE.
SYSTEM NUMBER TWO IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK OF THE EXTENDED AS
GUIDANCE IS HAVING ISSUES PINNING DOWN A TRACK AS IT PASSES THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF TUE INTO THU. THERE
IS CONSENSUS THAT THERE WILL BE A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, IT IS JUST THAT THE TRACK OF IT
REMAINS UP IN THE AIR. THE MAIN REASON FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IS THAT
THERE ARE TROPICAL REMNANTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AND OVER
THE LAST FEW DAY THE PREDICTION ON THE TRACK FOR MID NEXT WEEK HAS
VARIED FROM THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TO SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
ISLAND AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS
SOLUTIONS IS CURRENTLY FAVORED AND THAT BRINGS A RATHER POTENT
FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY THU AND FRI. BY POTENT,
WE MEAN GALE FORCE, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF STORM FORCE FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF, BUT THAT IS IF THE CURRENT TRACK ENDS UP BEING THE
FAVORED AND DOES NOT TREND BACK NORTH AGAIN. IF THE TRACK DOES
TREND NORTH AGAIN GULF WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTER (SUB GALE
FORCE), BUT STILL STRONGER THEN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN RECENTLY. IN
ANY CASE, MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS AS WELL AS RAINFALL ARE LIKELY TO
BE AN OUTCOME LATE NEXT WEEK NO MATTER WHERE THE MAIN STORM
EVENTUALLY GOES AS MOST SOLUTIONS TODAY AND EVEN YESTERDAY HAD A
FRONT OF SOME STRENGTH AND FORM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SO EXPECT
AN ACTIVE LATE WEEK PERIOD FOR THE GULF WATERS AND PANHANDLE NEXT
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW A GRADUAL
DOWNWARD TREND. HOWEVER THESE TEMPERATURES, EVEN BY LATE NEXT
WEEK, WILL STILL BE WARMER THEN WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THOUGH THEY WILL NOT BE THE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WE SAW
A FEW DAYS AGO.
AVIATION
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT A MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER HAS REMAINED OVER THE THE
INNER CHANNELS. IN RETURN, FLYING CONDITIONS REMAIN MAINLY MVFR TO
IFR FROM THE LOW STRATUS DECK FROM THE MARINE LAYER. EXPECT
CONTINUED OVERCAST TO BROKEN SKIES AS THIS LOW STRATUS DECK
BEGINS TO SLIGHTLY LIFT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH A RIDGE REDEVELOPING OVER THE GULF, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
START TO TRY TO PUSH OUT THESE LOWER CLOUDS FROM THE INNER
CHANNELS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ABOVE 3000 FT. FOR TONIGHT, THE
MAIN IMPACTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MARINE
LAYER. IF THE INNER CHANNELS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON,
THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAINLY STICK TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST
AREAS. OTHERWISE, IF THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE UNABLE TO ADVECT ALL
OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE INNER CHANNELS, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED POCKETS OF GENTLE BREEZES BEING REPORTED. WITH THE MARINE
LAYER, VISIBILITIES ARE DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE IN SOME AREAS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS SEA BREEZES KICK IN LATER TODAY
WHICH COULD SEE SOME PLACES SUCH AS LYNN CANAL AND CLARENCE STRAIT
SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. BUT THIS WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN.
OUTSIDE WATERS: LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY FOR
PARTS OF THE GULF AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM
CAPE OMMANEY DOWN TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FRESH BREEZES. FOR THE REST OF THE GULF WATERS, GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST WINDS ENCOUNTERED
DURING THE DAY TODAY. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 3-5
FT HEIGHTS WITH A WESTERLY SWELL COMPONENT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...SF
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