691
FXAK67 PAJK 070541
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
941 PM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2025
UPDATE
06Z ISSUANCE OF TAFS/AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SHORT TERM
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB IS CURRENT TRAVERSING
SOUTHEAST AND WILL EXIT THE PANHANDLE INTO CANADA SHORTLY. WHILE
THE EFFECTS ARE MILD TO THE PANHANDLE, IT IS HELPING MIX OUT LOW
CLOUDS FASTER THAN YESTERDAY, RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY FASTER
CLEARING SKIES, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE
REINFORCING RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, AS A
STRONG, DEEP TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD, BRINGING RAIN TO
YAKUTAT SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEE
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THIS WEEKS
ACTIVE PATTERN.
LONG TERM
/MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ MID AND EXTENDED PERIODS
ARE LOOKING RATHER ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND
DEEPENS OVER THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND ALASKA NEXT WEEK. OF
PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE RATHER STRONG UPPER LOW THAT MOVES E ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY MID WEEK THAT SOLIDIFIES
THE POSITION OF THE OVERALL TROUGH. THE POSITION OF THIS TROUGH
MEANS THAT THE PANHANDLE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WITH WARM WET SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE PANHANDLE, THE GENERAL TREND FOR THE FORECAST IS WETTER,
WITH STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID WEEK. TO BEGIN WITH, THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR MONDAY AS A WEAKER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR WIND IS EXPECTED OUT THIS FEATURE THOUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE COULD SEE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IT IS THE NEXT SYSTEM, THAT HAS REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM,
THAT WILL BE BRINGING MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE
UNCERTAINTY YESTERDAY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED
(THOUGH STILL NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN) WITH MOST GUIDANCE STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A TRACK SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF BY WED AS A 980 MB LOW WITH A FRONT SPREADING ACROSS
THE GULF INTO THE PANHANDLE ON WED. EXPECT A PERIOD OF HIGHER
WINDS AND HEAVIER RAIN THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST FEW
WEEKS MAINLY WED. THE FORECAST WINDS FOR THE GULF WATERS HAS BEEN
INCREASED WITH MIN GALE FORCE WINDS FOR SOME PARTS OF THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WHILE MORE WIDE SPREAD
20 TO 30 KT WINDS ARE LOOKING MORE CERTAIN. HIGH GALE FORCE OR
STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE AN EVEN LOWER CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE THAN
THE ALREADY LOW CHANCE THEY HAD YESTERDAY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
THOUGH. INNER CHANNEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASED WITH 15 TO 25
KT SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOKING LIKELY FOR WED INTO
WED NIGHT. RAINFALL IS ALSO LOOKING TO BE SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE
PARTIAL TROPICAL ORIGINS AND SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION
THAT WILL BE FEEDING THE INCOMING FRONT. GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS
STARTING WED MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON (THE OUTER COAST
FROM CAPE DECISION NORTHWESTWARD COULD SEE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES).
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE UP TO 3.5 INCHES DURING THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT COULD GET HUNG
UP ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST (BARANOF ISLAND) FOCUSING MORE
RAINFALL INTO THAT AREA, BUT THE CONFIDENCE ON THAT SCENARIO IS
SOMEWHAT LOW AT THE MOMENT. DAMP WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND AS S TO SW FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH THE S TO SW FLOW BRINGING IN A SOMEWHAT WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
06Z UPDATE.
THE COMPLEXITY SATURDAY NIGHT IS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE COOLING AND INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD FG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, FG IS INCLUDED IN SOME TAF
SITES, LEANING ON THE SIDE OF PESSIMISTIC CAUTION. MAIN FOCUS FOR
1/2SM FG NEAR 11Z WOULD BE PAPG, WITH A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE; GUSTAVUS
CIGS ARE IFR AS OF 0530Z. SUNDAY, EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR ONCE
ANY MARINE LAYER BREAKS, MAINLY AFTER 18Z. MOVING INTO SUNDAY
EVENING MVFR RAIN BEGINS TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN COAST, SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY. NO LLWS CONCERNS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: CONTINUED NW WINDS UP TO A FRESH BREEZE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY, WITH HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ALONG
THE COASTLINE WITHIN 15 NM. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FROM THE
INCOMING TROUGH ALOFT, EXPECT TO SEE WIND SPEEDS SLOW SLIGHTLY AND
SHIFT WESTERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY GOING INTO
MONDAY WITH THE INCOMING FRONT. WILL EXPECT TO SEE MARINE FOG
CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MIDDAY FOR THE OUTSIDE COAST
APPROXIMATELY 10 NM OFFSHORE, FROM CAPE EDGECOMBE TO DIXON
ENTRANCE.
INSIDE WATERS: MOSTLY LIGHT TO 10 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE WITH UP TO 15 KNOT NWERLIES FOR CLARENCE STRAIT,
MIRRORING THE OUTSIDE WATERS. EXPECTING A STAGNANT PATTERN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW BEFORE THE ALOFT RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN TONIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...NC
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