816
FXAK67 PAJK 071741
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
941 AM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2025
UPDATE
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF & PANHANDLE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THROUGH TONIGHT,
ALLOWING A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH & PUSH THROUGH STARTING
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, APPROACHING & PUSHING
THROUGH THE YAKUTAT AREA FIRST. IT WILL PUSH INTO THE REST OF THE
OF THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING UP
TO PEAK 15-20 KT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS & LIGHT
RAIN, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE PANHANDLE.
THE MAIN CHANGES THAT WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE TO UTILIZE
SOME GFS & NBM TO BRING IN SOME POPS FOR THE GUSTAVUS, JUNEAU, &
YAKUTAT AREAS THIS MORNING AS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN
IN THOSE LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING & TO UTILIZE SOME HRRR &
NAMNEST TO PRIMARILY PULL THE WINDS UP TO BETWEEN 15 & 20 KT FOR
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL FOR TODAY.
LONG TERM
/MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ MID AND EXTENDED PERIODS
ARE LOOKING RATHER ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND
DEEPENS OVER THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND ALASKA NEXT WEEK. OF
PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE RATHER STRONG UPPER LOW THAT MOVES E ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY MID WEEK THAT SOLIDIFIES
THE POSITION OF THE OVERALL TROUGH. THE POSITION OF THIS TROUGH
MEANS THAT THE PANHANDLE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WITH WARM WET SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE PANHANDLE, THE GENERAL TREND FOR THE FORECAST IS WETTER,
WITH STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID WEEK. TO BEGIN WITH, THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR MONDAY AS A WEAKER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR WIND IS EXPECTED OUT THIS FEATURE THOUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE COULD SEE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IT IS THE NEXT SYSTEM, THAT HAS REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM,
THAT WILL BE BRINGING MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE
UNCERTAINTY YESTERDAY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED
(THOUGH STILL NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN) WITH MOST GUIDANCE STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A TRACK SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF BY WED AS A 980 MB LOW WITH A FRONT SPREADING ACROSS
THE GULF INTO THE PANHANDLE ON WED. EXPECT A PERIOD OF HIGHER
WINDS AND HEAVIER RAIN THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST FEW
WEEKS MAINLY WED. THE FORECAST WINDS FOR THE GULF WATERS HAS BEEN
INCREASED WITH MIN GALE FORCE WINDS FOR SOME PARTS OF THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WHILE MORE WIDE SPREAD
20 TO 30 KT WINDS ARE LOOKING MORE CERTAIN. HIGH GALE FORCE OR
STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE AN EVEN LOWER CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE THAN
THE ALREADY LOW CHANCE THEY HAD YESTERDAY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
THOUGH. INNER CHANNEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASED WITH 15 TO 25
KT SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOKING LIKELY FOR WED INTO
WED NIGHT. RAINFALL IS ALSO LOOKING TO BE SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE
PARTIAL TROPICAL ORIGINS AND SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION
THAT WILL BE FEEDING THE INCOMING FRONT. GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS
STARTING WED MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON (THE OUTER COAST
FROM CAPE DECISION NORTHWESTWARD COULD SEE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES).
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE UP TO 3.5 INCHES DURING THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT COULD GET HUNG
UP ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST (BARANOF ISLAND) FOCUSING MORE
RAINFALL INTO THAT AREA, BUT THE CONFIDENCE ON THAT SCENARIO IS
SOMEWHAT LOW AT THE MOMENT. DAMP WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND AS S TO SW FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH THE S TO SW FLOW BRINGING IN A SOMEWHAT WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE RANGE FROM CLEAR
SKIES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO ISOLATED LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CEILINGS AS LOW AS 400 FT AT TIMES. BUT, EARLY EVIDENCE SHOWS
IMPROVEMENT IS ON THE WAY FOR THOSE AREAS SEEING THE SUPER LOW
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
A PASSING SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY WITH
GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL. THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE
IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE BETTER FLYING
WEATHER LASTING INTO THE EVENING. SO, THE MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING WITH VFR
LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
BUT OVERNIGHT IS WHEN LOWERED FLYING CONDITIONS RETURN. INCOMING
FRONT WILL BRING MVFR RAIN AND LOWERED CLOUDS TO THE AREA, MAINLY
FOR THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF ICY STRAIT.
FOR THOSE SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, THE LINGERING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MAY KEEP THE CLEARER SKIES IN PLACE, WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS DOWN TO
IFR OR LIFR ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING UP AROUND 20 KT ARE IN
STORE TODAY FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL DUE TO A TIGHTENED SOUTH TO
NORTH ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT POISED OVER THAT GENERAL AREA.
WINDS LOOK TO PEAK OUT AT AROUND 10-15 KT OVER THE CROSS SOUND &
CLARENCE STRAIT AREAS, TODAY, AS WELL. AS WE APPROACH MIDWEEK & A
GALE-FORCE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES & PUSHES THROUGH THE INNER
CHANNELS OF THE PANHANDLE, IT LOOKS TO BRING UP TO AROUND 25 KT
SMALL CRAFT WINDS INTO THE INNER CHANNELS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, SOME AREAS OF LOW MARINE LAYER STRATUS
CLOUDS & FOG ARE IMPACTING PRIMARILY THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR &
CROSS SOUND FOR SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTSIDE WATERS: PRIMARILY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY UP TO 15 TO 20 KT
WILL SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY & THEN SOUTHWESTERLY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE. STARTING TUESDAY,
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF PEAKING
OUT AT UP TO AROUND 35 TO 40 KT FOR WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING GALE FORCE FRONTAL SYSTEM, BRINGING ITS TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT, THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, SOME AREAS OF LOW MARINE
LAYER STRATUS CLOUDS & FOG ARE IMPACTING THE EASTERN GULF FOR
SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...JLC
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