000
FXAK67 PAJK 072326
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
326 PM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SHORT TERM
FAIRLY QUIET SHORT RANGE PERIOD FEATURING A
TRANSITION FROM GENERALLY DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER
TO DAMPER AND CLOUDIER WEATHER BY MONDAY. PRESENTLY THE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OBSERVED IN THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THIS MORNING
HAS DIMINISH THOUGH SOME MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STILL REMAIN AS
OF 230 PM AS ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS ADVECTING THE CLOUDS IN THROUGH
CROSS SOUND. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA HAS CLEARED OUT NICELY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO OVERALL FLOW BEING JUST ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
DO SO THROUGH SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS ARE STILL PRESENT.
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS ONSHORE FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND
TO SPEAK OF WITH THIS FRONT. INCREASED PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL BE
THE MAIN EFFECTS. YAKUTAT WILL SEE THE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
FIRST AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO SEE THE FRONTAL PRECIP MOVE IN. HOWEVER I CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REDEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS LATE TONIGHT SO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
THERE SHOWS UP AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH FOR
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS TO UP TO A HALF INCH FOR YAKUTAT. AT
THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAINFALL WILL PRIMARILY BE A NORTHERN
PANHANDLE EVENT AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
LARGELY ESCAPE SEEING ANY RAINFALL AS THE FRONT GETS TORN APART
BY THE RESIDUAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. STILL EXPECT INCREASED CLOUD
COVER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A GALE FORCE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT
- AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED IN 24 HOURS, WITH YAKUTAT
SEEING CLOSER TO 5 INCHES
- INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS AND STAY
ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY
DETAILS: ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE PANHANDLE AS A DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SENDS A NEAR 980MB LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF, BRINGING INCREASED WINDS AND RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK. IMPACTS
FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY WILL
TRICKLE OUT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, BEFORE A GALE FORCE FRONT
REACHES THE NORTHERN OUTER PANHANDLE THAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM,
STEMMING FROM THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC, WILL HELP TO DIRECT WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE PANHANDLE.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH UPWARDS OF 35 KTS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, DECREASING AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND BUT STILL
REMAINING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE GULF UNTIL FRIDAY. INNER
CHANNELS CAN EXPECT SSE WINDS TO START PICKING UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, WITH SELECT AREAS AND
CHANNEL ENTRANCES SEEING UP TO 30 KTS PEAKING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PARTIAL TROPICAL ORIGINS AND SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION FEEDING THE INCOMING FRONT. YAKUTAT WILL
RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM, TOTING A HEAVY RAIN HAZARD FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN OUTER COAST TUESDAY NIGHT, DOUSING YAKUTAT OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY, WITH
1 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR LOWER ELEVATION AREAS
IN 24 HOURS. AREAS NORTH OF CAPE DECISION WILL SEE BETWEEN 2 TO 3
INCHES ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATED AREAS AND COASTAL
COMMUNITIES WILL SEE UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL SEE ITS HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY OUT OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE, WITH OVER 2 INCHES EXPECTED
IN 24 HOURS. YAKUTAT IS AN EXCEPTION TO ALL OF THIS, AS THEY ARE
CURRENTLY LOOKING TO RECEIVE UPWARDS OF 4.5 INCHES IN 48 HOURS,
WITH A MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIP FALLING ON WEDNESDAY. AN SPS HAS
BEEN ISSUED IN PREPARATION FOR POTENTIAL RIVER RISES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT WITH THE LAST 2 WEEKS OF ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER, LOW RIVER
HEIGHTS AND DRY GROUND CONDITIONS MAY MAKE FLOODING MORE PROMINENT
THAN USUAL. DAMP WEATHER PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WET SSW
FLOW CONTINUING TO FUNNEL INTO THE PANHANDLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S FROM THE SSW FLOW BRINGING IN
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
TODAY HAS BEEN A DAY OF SLOW IMPROVEMENTS AS THOSE
AREAS THAT HAD LOW CLOUDS EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS
LIFTING TO AROUND 5K FEET. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OUT QUITE NICELY.
GOING FORWARD THOUGH, THE OVERNIGHT IS WHEN LOWERED FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN. THE INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING MVFR RAIN
SHOWERS AND LOWERED CLOUDS TO THE AREA, MAINLY FOR THOSE ALONG AND
NORTH OF ICY STRAIT.
FOR THOSE SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, THE LINGERING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MAY KEEP THE CLEARER SKIES IN PLACE, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT. FOR THOSE AREAS THAT SEE
FOG DEVELOPMENT, FLYING CONDITIONS WOULD BE DOWN TO LOW-END MVFR
TO IFR BUT CAN'T RULE OUT LIFR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR MONDAY MORNING, AROUND 16 TO 19Z.
ANY WIND CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND SKAGWAY WHERE WINDS HAVE
BEEN STRONGER THAN ELSEWHERE AROUND THE PANHANDLE. WHILE SPEEDS
SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT, THEY'LL PICK RIGHT BACK UP TOMORROW.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS: GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS FOR MANY INNER CHANNEL
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY (EXCEPT NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WHERE SOUTH
WINDS OF 20 KT ARE BLOWING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT AT LEAST). THE MAIN STORY IS COMING FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE GULF. MANY INNER CHANNEL AREAS
WILL BE SEEING SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT STARTING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SEAS IN THE INNER CHANNELS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO 3
TO 5 FT MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASING WINDS.
GULF WATERS: GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WITH SEAS OF
4 FT OR LESS AT THE MOMENT. THE WEAKER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH BEFORE WINDS SWITCH TO LIGHTER
WESTERLY WINDS POST FRONT. THE MAIN STORY IS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE S TO SE WINDS INCREASING TO MIN
GALE FORCE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECT AN INITIAL
RISE TO AROUND 13 TO 15 FT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SEAS
THEN STAY ELEVATED (10 TO 12 FT) INTO LATE WEEK MAINLY DUE TO SW
SWELL OF 7 TO 8 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 14 SEC MOVING INTO THE GULF
MAINLY ON THU.
HYDROLOGY
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE TO A WET
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. IN ADDITION, FREEZING LEVELS ARE
STILL VERY HIGH AT AROUND 8000 TO 9000 FT. AS A RESULT WE ARE
LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MOST OF THE PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW SHARP RISES IN WATER
LEVELS AND INCREASED FLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...EAL
HYDROLOGY...EAL
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