662
FXAK67 PAJK 081431
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
631 AM AKDT MON SEP 8 2025
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/
A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAKES ITS PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT,
INCREASING CLOUD COVER, BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT-TO-MODERATE
RAINFALL, & SOME ENHANCED WINDS OVER LAND AT UP TO AROUND 10-15
MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM'S TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT & RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTAL PUSH. THE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE PANHANDLE THE MOST AS THAT IS NEARER TO
WHERE ITS MAIN ENERGY WILL BE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS &
PRECIPITATION BEING PRESENT.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A GALE FORCE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT
- AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED IN 24 HOURS, WITH YAKUTAT
SEEING CLOSER TO 5 INCHES
- INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS AND STAY
ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY
DETAILS: ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE PANHANDLE AS A DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SENDS A NEAR 980MB LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF, BRINGING INCREASED WINDS AND RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK. IMPACTS
FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY WILL
TRICKLE OUT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, BEFORE A GALE FORCE FRONT
REACHES THE NORTHERN OUTER PANHANDLE THAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM,
STEMMING FROM THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC, WILL HELP TO DIRECT WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE PANHANDLE.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH UPWARDS OF 35 KTS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, DECREASING AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND BUT STILL
REMAINING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE GULF UNTIL FRIDAY. INNER
CHANNELS CAN EXPECT SSE WINDS TO START PICKING UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, WITH SELECT AREAS AND
CHANNEL ENTRANCES SEEING UP TO 30 KTS PEAKING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PARTIAL TROPICAL ORIGINS AND SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION FEEDING THE INCOMING FRONT. YAKUTAT WILL
RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM, TOTING A HEAVY RAIN HAZARD FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN OUTER COAST TUESDAY NIGHT, DOUSING YAKUTAT OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY, WITH
1 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR LOWER ELEVATION AREAS
IN 24 HOURS. AREAS NORTH OF CAPE DECISION WILL SEE BETWEEN 2 TO 3
INCHES ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATED AREAS AND COASTAL
COMMUNITIES WILL SEE UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL SEE ITS HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY OUT OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE, WITH OVER 2 INCHES EXPECTED
IN 24 HOURS. YAKUTAT IS AN EXCEPTION TO ALL OF THIS, AS THEY ARE
CURRENTLY LOOKING TO RECEIVE UPWARDS OF 4.5 INCHES IN 48 HOURS,
WITH A MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIP FALLING ON WEDNESDAY. AN SPS HAS
BEEN ISSUED IN PREPARATION FOR POTENTIAL RIVER RISES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT WITH THE LAST 2 WEEKS OF ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER, LOW RIVER
HEIGHTS AND DRY GROUND CONDITIONS MAY MAKE FLOODING MORE PROMINENT
THAN USUAL. DAMP WEATHER PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WET SSW
FLOW CONTINUING TO FUNNEL INTO THE PANHANDLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S FROM THE SSW FLOW BRINGING IN
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
A MARINE LAYER HAS PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND CLARENCE STRAIT AT OR BELOW 1000 FT AS OF 12Z AND IS EXPECTED
TO STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE THINNING OUT MONDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE A
MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS FORMED BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FT, WHICH
WILL ACT AS A BLANKET AND PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
INCOMING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING SPREADING RAIN AND CONDITIONS AT OR BELOW MVFR WITH
LOWERED CIGS PRIMARILY FOR THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF ICY STRAIT.
FROPA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SHORTLY AT PAYA AND THEN MAKE IT
THROUGH TO PAHN AND PAGY BY AROUND 18Z AND PAJN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD LOW END VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AT
OR BELOW 4000 FT ARE IN STORE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
TAF SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM SITKA THROUGH
FREDERICK SOUND. ASIDE FORM THE MARINE LAYER IMPACTING THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING, YAKUTAT WILL HAVE THE WORST
FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS THEY CONTEND WITH CIGS AOB 1500 FT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER A
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SEE SE-LY WINDS TURNING MORE SW-LY UP TO AROUND
20 KTS NEAR 2000 FT ALONG THE N GULF COAST AND YAKUTAT FROM
APPROXIMATELY 18Z TO 00Z.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS: SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PEAKING
OUT AT UP TO AROUND 20 KT ARE ANTICIPATED PRIMARILY AROUND THE
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AREA, TODAY, AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES & PUSHES THROUGH. EXPECT UP TO 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE FOR
THE INNER CHANNELS. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, EXPECT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO UP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY VALUES AS A MUCH STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
& MOVES THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO AROUND
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES & PUSHES THROUGH THE
INNER CHANNELS. SEAS WILL BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER FOR CROSS SOUND &
NEAR OTHER OCEAN ENTRANCES.
OUTSIDE WATERS: SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO
AROUND 20 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH.
AS WE MOVE INTO MIDWEEK, TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY,
SOUTHEASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO AROUND BETWEEN 25 TO 40 KT
ARE EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH A MUCH STRONGER GALE-FORCE FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH. WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING OUT AT
UP TO AROUND 16 FT ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN GULF.
HYDROLOGY
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE TO A WET
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. IN ADDITION, FREEZING LEVELS ARE
STILL VERY HIGH AT AROUND 8000 TO 9000 FT. AS A RESULT WE ARE
LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MOST OF THE PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW SHARP RISES IN WATER
LEVELS AND INCREASED FLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...JLC
HYDROLOGY...EAL
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