398
FXAK67 PAJK 082339
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
339 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2025
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/ THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST
FEATURES A SHIFT TO A MORE ACTIVE AND WETTER PATTERN AS WE HEAD
INTO MID WEEK. YAKUTAT AND ELFIN COVE ARE ALREADY SEEING RAINFALL
FROM THE FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT RAINFALL WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE REST
OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL WITH UPWARDS OF ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND WITH THIS
FEATURE AS WELL WITH 15 KT AT MOST FOR THE GULF WATERS AND SOME
SELECT AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS (LIKE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL).
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LARGELY MISS THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
RESIDUAL RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE TEARING THE FRONT APART AS IT
COMES, BUT WILL STILL SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM IT.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG SYSTEM
INCOMING FOR MID WEEK. THE MAIN LOW CENTER WILL STAY RELEGATED TO
THE WESTERN GULF, BUT IT WILL STILL SEND A GALE FORCE FRONT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS IN THE
GULF WILL START INCREASING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY REACH GALE FORCE AROUND CAPE SUCKLING AROUND TUESDAY
EVENING. OTHER AREAS OF THE NE GULF WILL SEE GALE FORCE WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL START
TO SEE WIND INCREASES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL WILL JUST BE
STARTING UP ALONG THE NE GULF COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WILL
SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT A
LOT OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE ACCUMULATED BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
RATES WILL BE STARTING TO BECOME MODERATE AT LEAST WEST OF LYNN
CANAL AND CHATHAM STRAIT BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A GALE FORCE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF
- AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED IN 48 HOURS, WITH SELECT
AREAS SEEING CLOSER TO 6 INCHES
- INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS AND SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGH THURSDAY
DETAILS: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIRECTING A NEAR 980MB
LOW ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF, SENDING A GALE FORCE
FRONT TO THE OUTER COAST OF THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM, STEMMING FROM THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC, WILL HELP TO DIRECT WARM AND WET SOUTHWEST FLOW
INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 35 TO 40
KTS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, DECREASING AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND, BUT STILL REMAINING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE GULF
UNTIL FRIDAY. INNER CHANNELS CAN EXPECT SSE WINDS TO START
PICKING UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, WITH 25 TO 30 KT WINDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANNEL ENTRANCES
AND PEAKING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN MWS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG
WINDS AND HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PARTIAL TROPICAL ORIGINS AND SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION FEEDING THE INCOMING FRONT. YAKUTAT WILL
RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM, TOTING A HEAVY RAIN HAZARD FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
THE PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS NORTH OF CAPE
DECISION WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY, WITH BETWEEN 2.5 TO 4.5 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MANY
COMMUNITIES. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE MOST OF THE IMPACTS
ON THURSDAY WITH BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES EXPECTED. YAKUTAT,
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, AND HIGHER ELEVATED AREAS ARE AN EXCEPTION TO
THIS, AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 5 AND 6
INCHES IN 48 HOURS, WITH A MAJORITY OF THIS FALLING ON WEDNESDAY.
AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED IN PREPARATION FOR POTENTIAL RIVER RISES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT WITH THE LAST 2 WEEKS OF ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER, LOW
RIVER HEIGHTS AND DRY GROUND CONDITIONS MAY MAKE FLOODING MORE
PROMINENT. DAMP WEATHER PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WET SSW
FLOW CONTINUING TO FUNNEL INTO THE PANHANDLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
AN INCOMING FRONT HAS BEEN TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE
GULF TODAY. AND THIS FRONT WILL KEEP MOVING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT,
BRINGING RAIN AND LOWERED FLYING CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE GULF, IFR CONDITIONS
ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER, WHEN THE FRONT REACHES
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING, IFR CONDITIONS BECOME
LESS LIKELY AND MVFR IS MORE LIKELY. MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO REACH
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT, AROUND 12Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, OR AT
LEAST HIGH-END MVFR. THE BETTER CONDITIONS LOOK TO START POPPING
UP ALONG AND NORTH OF ICY STRAIT BEGINNING AROUND 12Z WITH VFR IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DEVELOPING AROUND 18 TO 21Z.
VFR LASTS THROUGH THE REST OF TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME LLWS CONCERNS.
MARINE
INSIDE CHANNELS: LOW SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS ARE THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WHERE 20 KT SOUTHERLIES
ARE BLOWING. GENERALLY THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT MANY AREAS WILL START
TO SEE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AS A STRONG FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE GULF. THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE IT FIRST STARTING
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL WAIT
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ANY CASE, S TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
WILL BE COMMON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS, BUT THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OCEAN ENTRANCES WILL SEE THE HIGHER WINDS.
SEAS, MAINLY FROM THE WIND, WILL BE UP TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME.
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GULF WATERS: A WEAK FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF AT THE
MOMENT. THIS IS BRINGING SOME 15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT
WHILE WINDS DIMINISH AND SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION POST
FRONT. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE LOW AND SEAS ARE ONLY AROUND 3 TO 4 FT
MOST OF THAT IN THE FORM OF A WESTERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL BE
SWITCHING TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING STARTING STARTING TUESDAY AS
A STRONG FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL START TO SHOW UP NEAR CAPE SUCKLING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
EVENING AND COULD PEAK AS HIGH AS 45 KT TUESDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE
WINDS UP TO 40 KT WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS DOWN TO CAPE DECISION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL BE ON THE
RISE WITH SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY FOR MANY AREAS
OF THE GULF MAINLY FROM THE HIGHER WINDS INITIALLY. THE SEAS WILL
SHOW A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND INTO THE LATE WEEK, BUT WILL
STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 12 FT DUE TO A SW SWELL OF 7 TO 9
FT (WITH A PERIOD OF 14 SEC) LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY AT LEAST.
HYDROLOGY
STILL LOOKING AT AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT IS AIMED AT
THE PANHANDLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ON THE
OUTER COAST FROM BARANOF ISLAND NORTHWESTWARD. THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIP HAS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE GETTING THE RAINFALL FIRST
FOLLOWED BY THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO LATER.
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE THE RAINFALL STICK AROUND FOR AROUND 18 TO
24 HOURS OR LESS. AREA RIVERS AND STREAM ARE EXPECTED TO RESPOND
WITH RISING WATER LEVELS AND INCREASED FLOW STARTING WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH LEVELS LASTING POSSIBLY INTO LATE WEEK FOR THE SLOWER
RESPONDING RIVERS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...EAL
HYDROLOGY...EAL
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