619
FXAK67 PAJK 092243
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
243 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SHORT TERM
AN INCOMING GALE FORCE FRONT IS NICELY VIEWABLE ON
SATELLITE, COMPLETE WITH A DEEP, WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE TAP
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SLOWLY OCCLUDING THE FRONT FROM THE PARENT
LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. ONE NOTE FROM THE CURRENT OVERVIEW IS
THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
NOT EXPECTING THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO OUR AOR AS THE
FRONT CONVERTS INTO AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS INCOMING SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, HITTING YAKUTAT IN THE
COMING HOURS, AND THE ELFIN COVE/PELICAN AREA BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. EXPECTING TO SEE NUMEROUS HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAIN AND MARINE WINDS. PLEASE
SEE THE DEDICATED HYDROLOGY OR MARINE SECTION IN REGARDS TO EACH
HAZARD RESPECTIVELY.
LONG TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A GALE FORCE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF
- AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED IN 48 HOURS, WITH SELECT
AREAS SEEING CLOSER TO 5 INCHES
- INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS AND SLOWLY
DECREASE THURSDAY
DETAILS: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIRECTING A NEAR 980MB
LOW ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF, SENDING A GALE FORCE
FRONT TO THE OUTER COAST OF THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM, STEMMING FROM THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC, WILL HELP TO DIRECT WARM AND WET SOUTHWEST FLOW
INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 35 TO 40
KTS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, DECREASING AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND, BUT STILL REMAINING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE GULF
UNTIL FRIDAY. INNER CHANNELS CAN EXPECT SSE WINDS TO START
PICKING UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, WITH 25 TO 30 KT WINDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANNEL ENTRANCES
AND PEAKING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN MWS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG
WINDS AND HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PARTIAL TROPICAL ORIGINS AND SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION FEEDING THE INCOMING FRONT. YAKUTAT WILL
RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM, TOTING A HEAVY RAIN HAZARD FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
THE PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS NORTH OF CAPE
DECISION WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY, WITH BETWEEN 2.5 TO 4.5 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MANY
COMMUNITIES. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE MOST OF THE IMPACTS
ON THURSDAY WITH BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES EXPECTED. YAKUTAT,
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, AND HIGHER ELEVATED AREAS ARE AN EXCEPTION TO
THIS, AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 5 AND 6
INCHES IN 48 HOURS, WITH A MAJORITY OF THIS FALLING ON WEDNESDAY.
AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED IN PREPARATION FOR POTENTIAL RIVER RISES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT WITH THE LAST 2 WEEKS OF ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER, LOW
RIVER HEIGHTS AND DRY GROUND CONDITIONS MAY MAKE FLOODING MORE
PROMINENT. DAMP WEATHER PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WET SSW
FLOW CONTINUING TO FUNNEL INTO THE PANHANDLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
THE AVIATION WEATHER STORY COULD BE BROKEN UP INTO TWO
PARTS: THE NOW TO LATE THIS EVENING TIME FRAME AND OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW TIME FRAME. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE SPLIT AROUND THE INCOMING
GALE FORCE FRONT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
FOR THE FIRST TIME FRAME, NOW TO LATE THIS EVENING AROUND THE 04Z TO
09Z WINDOW. AT THE 500MB LEVEL IS A QUICK MOVING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE, THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE, CENTERED WAY DOWN IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, WILL MOVE EAST
INTO CANADA. AT THE SAME TIME, THE INCOMING FRONT WILL SLOWLY
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SE AK.
THIS PATTERN HAS GIVEN SE AK GENERALLY IMPROVING FLYING WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THAT BEING SAID, THE OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWER HAS PRODUCED
SOME BRIEF LOWERED CONDITIONS BEFORE THE AREA RETURNED TO VFR. GOING
FORWARD, THE VFR LEVELS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE WE
START TO SEE A DECREASE IN FLYING CONDITIONS.
FOR THE SECOND HALF, WITH A TRANSITION PERIOD AROUND 04Z TO 09Z,
THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DUE TO THE EXPECTED GALE
FORCE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN, VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 09Z TO 12Z FOR SCATTERED SPOTS AROUND THE
NORTHERN HALF.
FOR THOSE AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF, AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH,
SOME LOWERING IS POSSIBLE BUT AT THIS POINT, THE BIGGEST IMPACTS
WOULD BE TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST WERE MVFR IS LIKELY. FARTHER
INLAND, HIGH-END MVFR WOULD BE WORST CASE SCENARIO.
ANOTHER AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE LLWS. AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH,
LLWS WILL SWING THROUGH AS WELL. IMPACTS WILL BEGIN IN THE YAKUTAT
AREA AS EARLY AS 04 TO 06Z BUT THE REST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL MORE LIKELY SEE THE LLWS MOVE IN AROUND 09 TO 12Z. HIGHER EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND THE 1000 TO 2000 FOOT LEVELS
AT AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS. STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE IN YAKUTAT.
THE SOUTHERN HALF COULD SEE SOME LIGHT LLWS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW, AFTER 18Z. WILL REASSESS AND CONSIDER LLWS FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
MARINE
OUTSIDE:
CURRENT SEA STATE IS DOMINATED BY WSW SWELL OF 4 TO 6 FT AT 11 TO
14 SECONDS, WITH WINDS 25 KNOTS AT BUOY 46082. SE GALE FORCE
WINDS BECOMING WIDE SPREAD NEAR CAPE ST. ELIAS BY 10PM TUESDAY,
ENVELOPING THE CHICHAGOF/BARANOF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT ESE FRESH SEAS BUILD TO 10-16 FT, LESS THAN 11
SECONDS, WITH UNDERLYING SW SWELL. BY THURSDAY ANTICIPATE
SOUTHWEST SWELL TO BEGIN TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT, 10-12FT AT
12-14 SECONDS, WITH FRESH SEAS FROM THE SOUTH.
INSIDE:
OUR FIRST SERIOUS STORM OF THE FALL IS UPON US. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE RAMPING UP ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS, WITH THIS SIMPLE MESSAGE: EXPECT STRONG BREEZES (22-27
KNOTS) TO NEAR-GALE FORCE (28 TO 33 KNOTS) ACROSS MOST INNER
CHANNELS. ESPECIALLY CONCERNING IS THE LONG FETCH OF CHATHAM
STRAIT, WITH SOUTHERLY STRONG BREEZES BEING CAPABLE OF GENERATING
7 TO 10 FT SOUTHERLY SEAS MOVING UP CHATHAM STRAIT. SOME ISOLATED
SPOTS THAT FAVOR SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE (34 TO 40
KNOTS). WINDS BEGIN DECREASING WINDS REACH THEIR MAXIMUM POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
CHATHAM STRAIT AND LYNN CANAL THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BEGIN AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE ALONG THE OUTER GULF COAST. FOR
THOSE AREAS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED IN 24 HOURS
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FIRST REACH THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT TONIGHT REACHING THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE TOMORROW MORNING. THEN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL RECEIVE
RAIN WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RESPECTIVELY.
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESPOND WITH RISING WATER
LEVELS AND INCREASED FLOW STARTING WEDNESDAY. WITH ELEVATED FREEZING
LEVELS UP TO 9000 FT, ICE MELT IS EXPECTED NEAR GLACIAL BASIN AREAS
INCREASING RUNOFF. NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT
URBAN AREAS CAN SEE PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING
AREAS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ642>644-651-652-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031>034-036-053-641-
661>663.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...AP
HYDROLOGY...EAB
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