937
FXAK67 PAJK 100555
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
955 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION AND EVENING UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH
ACROSS THE GULF WITH NDBC BUOY 46082 NEAR CAPE SUCKLING REPORTING
SUSTAINED 30KT EASTERLY WINDS, NDBC 46083 OUTSIDE OF CROSS SOUND
REPORTING SUSTAINED 20KT EASTERLY WINDS, AND FINALLY BUOY 46084
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BARANOF REPORTING 15KT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. ANTICIPATING GULF AND COASTAL WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WITH LIKELY GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 45KTS
NEAR CAPE SUCKLING AND UP TO 35KTS ALONG THE COAST EASTWARD
TOWARDS CAPE FAIRWEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. INNER CHANNEL
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING UP TO STRONG
BREEZES (22-27 KNOTS) TO NEAR-GALE FORCE (28 TO 33 KNOTS) ACROSS
MOST INNER CHANNELS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
AN INCOMING GALE FORCE FRONT IS NICELY VIEWABLE ON
SATELLITE, COMPLETE WITH A DEEP, WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE TAP
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SLOWLY OCCLUDING THE FRONT FROM THE PARENT
LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. ONE NOTE FROM THE CURRENT OVERVIEW IS
THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
NOT EXPECTING THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO OUR AOR AS THE
FRONT CONVERTS INTO AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS INCOMING SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, HITTING YAKUTAT IN THE
COMING HOURS, AND THE ELFIN COVE/PELICAN AREA BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. EXPECTING TO SEE NUMEROUS HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAIN AND MARINE WINDS. PLEASE
SEE THE DEDICATED HYDROLOGY OR MARINE SECTION IN REGARDS TO EACH
HAZARD RESPECTIVELY.
LONG TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A GALE FORCE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF
- AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED IN 48 HOURS, WITH SELECT
AREAS SEEING CLOSER TO 5 INCHES
- INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS AND SLOWLY
DECREASE THURSDAY
DETAILS: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIRECTING A NEAR 980MB
LOW ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF, SENDING A GALE FORCE
FRONT TO THE OUTER COAST OF THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM, STEMMING FROM THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC, WILL HELP TO DIRECT WARM AND WET SOUTHWEST FLOW
INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 35 TO 40
KTS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, DECREASING AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND, BUT STILL REMAINING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE GULF
UNTIL FRIDAY. INNER CHANNELS CAN EXPECT SSE WINDS TO START
PICKING UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, WITH 25 TO 30 KT WINDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANNEL ENTRANCES
AND PEAKING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN MWS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG
WINDS AND HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PARTIAL TROPICAL ORIGINS AND SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION FEEDING THE INCOMING FRONT. YAKUTAT WILL
RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM, TOTING A HEAVY RAIN HAZARD FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
THE PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS NORTH OF CAPE
DECISION WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY, WITH BETWEEN 2.5 TO 4.5 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MANY
COMMUNITIES. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE MOST OF THE IMPACTS
ON THURSDAY WITH BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES EXPECTED. YAKUTAT,
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, AND HIGHER ELEVATED AREAS ARE AN EXCEPTION TO
THIS, AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 5 AND 6
INCHES IN 48 HOURS, WITH A MAJORITY OF THIS FALLING ON WEDNESDAY.
AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED IN PREPARATION FOR POTENTIAL RIVER RISES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT WITH THE LAST 2 WEEKS OF ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER, LOW
RIVER HEIGHTS AND DRY GROUND CONDITIONS MAY MAKE FLOODING MORE
PROMINENT. DAMP WEATHER PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WET SSW
FLOW CONTINUING TO FUNNEL INTO THE PANHANDLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 06 THURSDAY/
CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE TAF SITES
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS STRONG FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF, WITH ONGOING MVFR OR WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND
CIGS AOB 2500FT ONGOING ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTHWARD.
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, GENERALLY BETTER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WITH CIGS AOA 3000FT, BUT ANTICIPATING
THIS TO QUICKLY CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH
REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MVFR OR WORSE WITH CEILINGS AOB 2500FT,
ISOLATED LOCATIONS OF IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, UP TO 10 TO 15KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS BY 12Z ACROSS NORTHERN PANHANDLE TAF SITES,
INCREASING FURTHER THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
20KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS.
WIDESPREAD LLWS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH AND PUSHES INTO SEAK PANHANDLE. LLWS IS ONGOING OR
WILL BEGIN IN THE YAKUTAT AREA SHORTLY, GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD TO THE REST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH 12Z, THEN
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
ANTICIPATING STRONGEST LLWS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING UP TO 40KTS, UP TO 30KTS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
OUTSIDE:
CURRENT SEA STATE IS DOMINATED BY WSW SWELL OF 4 TO 6 FT AT 11 TO
14 SECONDS, WITH WINDS 25 KNOTS AT BUOY 46082. SE GALE FORCE
WINDS BECOMING WIDE SPREAD NEAR CAPE ST. ELIAS BY 10PM TUESDAY,
ENVELOPING THE CHICHAGOF/BARANOF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT ESE FRESH SEAS BUILD TO 10-16 FT, LESS THAN 11
SECONDS, WITH UNDERLYING SW SWELL. BY THURSDAY ANTICIPATE
SOUTHWEST SWELL TO BEGIN TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT, 10-12FT AT
12-14 SECONDS, WITH FRESH SEAS FROM THE SOUTH.
INSIDE:
OUR FIRST SERIOUS STORM OF THE FALL IS UPON US. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE RAMPING UP ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS, WITH THIS SIMPLE MESSAGE: EXPECT STRONG BREEZES (22-27
KNOTS) TO NEAR-GALE FORCE (28 TO 33 KNOTS) ACROSS MOST INNER
CHANNELS. ESPECIALLY CONCERNING IS THE LONG FETCH OF CHATHAM
STRAIT, WITH SOUTHERLY STRONG BREEZES BEING CAPABLE OF GENERATING
7 TO 10 FT SOUTHERLY SEAS MOVING UP CHATHAM STRAIT. SOME ISOLATED
SPOTS THAT FAVOR SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE (34 TO 40
KNOTS). WINDS BEGIN DECREASING WINDS REACH THEIR MAXIMUM POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
CHATHAM STRAIT AND LYNN CANAL THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BEGIN AS THE FRONT REACHES THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE ALONG THE OUTER GULF COAST. FOR
THOSE AREAS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED IN 24
HOURS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FIRST
REACH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT TONIGHT REACHING THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE TOMORROW MORNING. THEN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL RECEIVE RAIN WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RESPECTIVELY.
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESPOND WITH RISING WATER
LEVELS AND INCREASED FLOW STARTING WEDNESDAY. WITH ELEVATED
FREEZING LEVELS UP TO 9000 FT, ICE MELT IS EXPECTED NEAR GLACIAL
BASIN AREAS INCREASING RUNOFF. NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME, BUT URBAN AREAS CAN SEE PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS
AND LOW LYING AREAS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ642>644-651-652-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031>034-036-053-641-
661>663.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...AP
HYDROLOGY...EAB
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