074
FXAK67 PAJK 101333
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
533 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2025
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT / AN EARLY FALL STORM IS
IN THE GULF PRESENTLY CENTERED NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WITH THE FRONTAL
BAND ARCING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND EASTERN GULF. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE WITH A WAVE ON THE FRONT THE BAND WILL
STALL OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FROM NEAR GLACIER BAY OVER THE
BARANOF AND CHICHAGOF ISLANDS. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE
TO THE FORECAST THINKING FROM YESTERDAY. MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST, SO ANTICIPATING THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS THROUGH
THROUGH THE DAY WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OR MORE FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE, AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH A
SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS NEAR THE COAST, BUT MAY SEE WINDS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT RANGE.
LONG TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A GALE FORCE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF
- AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED IN 48 HOURS, WITH SELECT
AREAS SEEING CLOSER TO 5 INCHES
- INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS AND SLOWLY
DECREASE THURSDAY
DETAILS: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIRECTING A NEAR 980MB
LOW ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF, SENDING A GALE FORCE
FRONT TO THE OUTER COAST OF THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM, STEMMING FROM THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC, WILL HELP TO DIRECT WARM AND WET SOUTHWEST FLOW
INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 35 TO 40
KTS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, DECREASING AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND, BUT STILL REMAINING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE GULF
UNTIL FRIDAY. INNER CHANNELS CAN EXPECT SSE WINDS TO START
PICKING UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, WITH 25 TO 30 KT WINDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANNEL ENTRANCES
AND PEAKING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN MWS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG
WINDS AND HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PARTIAL TROPICAL ORIGINS AND SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION FEEDING THE INCOMING FRONT. YAKUTAT WILL
RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM, TOTING A HEAVY RAIN HAZARD FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
THE PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS NORTH OF CAPE
DECISION WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY, WITH BETWEEN 2.5 TO 4.5 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MANY
COMMUNITIES. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE MOST OF THE IMPACTS
ON THURSDAY WITH BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES EXPECTED. YAKUTAT,
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, AND HIGHER ELEVATED AREAS ARE AN EXCEPTION TO
THIS, AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 5 AND 6
INCHES IN 48 HOURS, WITH A MAJORITY OF THIS FALLING ON WEDNESDAY.
AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED IN PREPARATION FOR POTENTIAL RIVER RISES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT WITH THE LAST 2 WEEKS OF ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER, LOW
RIVER HEIGHTS AND DRY GROUND CONDITIONS MAY MAKE FLOODING MORE
PROMINENT. DAMP WEATHER PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WET SSW
FLOW CONTINUING TO FUNNEL INTO THE PANHANDLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE TAF SITES
WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE, WITH ONGOING MVFR OR WORSE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND CIGS AOB 2500FT ONGOING ALONG THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, GENERALLY BETTER
CONDITIONS AS OF 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS AOA 3000FT, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BOTH PAPG AND PAKT WHICH HAVE BOTH HAD SHALLOW STRATUS
LAYERS AOB 1000 FT MOVE IN. WHILE THESE INITIAL LAYERS ARE
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ANTICIPATING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH REDUCED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS MVFR OR WORSE WITH CEILINGS AOB 2500FT, ISOLATED
LOCATIONS OF IFR CEILINGS BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS ARE IN STORE ACROSS
NORTHERN PANHANDLE TAF SITES, INCREASING FURTHER THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR 20KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS.
WIDESPREAD LLWS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD AS THE FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH AND PUSHES INTO THE SEAK PANHANDLE. LLWS IS ONGOING IN
THE YAKUTAT AREA, GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD TO THE REST OF THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
ANTICIPATING STRONGEST LLWS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING UP TO 40KTS, UP TO 30KTS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
INSIDE CHANNELS: LOW SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS ARE THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WHERE 20 KT SOUTHERLIES ARE BLOWING.
WILL START TO SEE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AS A STRONG FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE GULF. THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE IT
FIRST STARTING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WILL WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ANY CASE, S TO SE
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BE COMMON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MANY
AREAS, BUT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OCEAN ENTRANCES WILL SEE THE
HIGHER WINDS. SEAS, MAINLY FROM THE WIND, WILL BE UP TO 5 FT
DURING THIS TIME. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
GULF WATERS: GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR CAPE SUCKLING PEAKING BETWEEN
40 AND 45 KT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH SEAS OF 12
TO 15 FT LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY FOR MANY AREAS OF THE GULF MAINLY
FROM THE HIGHER WINDS INITIALLY. THE SEAS WILL SHOW A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND INTO THE LATE WEEK, BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 10 TO 12 FT DUE TO A SW SWELL OF 7 TO 9 FT (WITH A PERIOD
OF 14 SEC) LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY AT LEAST.
HYDROLOGY
STILL LOOKING AT AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT IS AIMED AT
THE PANHANDLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ON THE
OUTER COAST FROM BARANOF ISLAND NORTHWESTWARD. THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIP HAS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE GETTING THE RAINFALL FIRST
FOLLOWED BY THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO LATER.
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE THE RAINFALL STICK AROUND FOR AROUND 18 TO
24 HOURS OR LESS. AREA RIVERS AND STREAM ARE EXPECTED TO RESPOND
WITH RISING WATER LEVELS AND INCREASED FLOW STARTING WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH LEVELS LASTING POSSIBLY INTO LATE WEEK FOR THE SLOWER
RESPONDING RIVERS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ642>644-651-652-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031>034-036-053-641-
661>663.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...BEZENEK
HYDROLOGY...EAB
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