092
FXAK67 PAJK 110550 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
950 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2025
..06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS
EVENING AS STRONG FRONT PUSHES INLAND, WITH ONGOING MVFR OR WORSE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WIDESPREAD, CIGS GENERALLY AOB 3000FT AND SE- LY
LLWS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TAF SITES UP TO
40KTS. THROUGH THE REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY,
ANTICIPATING LLWS WITH MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH
CIGS AOB 2500FT WITH LIKELY IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TAF SITES AS BULK OF FRONT PASSES THROUGH 14Z.
WINDS OVERNIGHT UP TO 10 TO 15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS,
INCREASING THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20KTS AND GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS.
BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, RAIN BECOMES MORE ISOLATED AND
SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT TO LOW-END VFR
CONDITIONS BY 00 TO 04Z FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 322 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2025
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONTINUED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES THROUGH TOMORROW,
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
- WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE FRONT WITH MARINE SPEEDS
UPWARDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS, ISOLATED SPOTS UPWARDS OF 25 TO 30
KTS.
DETAILS: A GALE FORCE FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH SE AK TODAY.
THIS FRONT HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST, THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, AND THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. UPWARDS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITH MORE ON THE WAY.
AS THIS FRONT MOVES EAST, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE TOPOGRAPHY CAN
ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
BUT BANKFUL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE.
WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING FRONT. SO
FAR, INNER CHANNEL WIND SPEEDS HAVE REACH 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE
USUAL ISOLATED SPOTS GETTING UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. LAND AREAS HAVE
SEEN GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. GOING FORWARD, WIND SPEEDS LIKE
THIS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT. SO ONCE THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH, SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH.
LONG TERM...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
GULF CONTINUING TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO YAKUTAT.
- THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF GET A SHORT BREAK THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE THE NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY
DETAILS: THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF
AND DISSIPATES. RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY, BUT TIMES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AROUND YAKUTAT. TIMES
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
BUT CONFIDENCE FOR A BREAK ON SATURDAY SEEM MORE LIKELY DUE TO A
RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR
MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS. FOR WINDS, AN
OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NORTHEAST
GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AREAS UP TO 25 KTS FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH. THE INSIDE WATERS WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A DIMINISHING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN LYNN CANAL.
A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH, MAINLY
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. CURRENTLY, THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE ALLOWING FOR NO IMPACTS BEING EXPECTED
WITH MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, THE KETCHIKAN AREA HAS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF 0.1 INCHES OF
RAIN FALLING IN 6 HOURS. AT THIS TIME, THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES, DUE
TO A SHORT LIVED RIDGE LOCATED IN THE GULF.
LASTLY, THE NEXT LARGER FRONT REACHES THE PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF.
CURRENTLY, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS OUR CURRENT STORM,
BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE AROUND 990MB WITH STRONG
BREEZES TO NEAR GALES OF 22 TO 33 KTS IN THE GULF. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE TO SEE WHERE THE LARGEST IMACTS WILL OCCUR.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COAST):
ALONG OUR COAST SEA STATE IS DOMINATED BY FRESH SEAS OUT OF THE
SE, FOCUSED AROUND 11 TO 15 FT WITH A PERIOD LESS THAN 10 SECONDS
FROM NEAR-GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS. BUOY 85 HAS TRANSITIONED TO SW
SWELL, 15FT AT 13-14 SECONDS. THIS WAVE GROUP WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
MOST OF OUR COAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS DIMINISHING TO 10-13FT. WHILE THE SWELL DOMINATES THE WAVE
SPECTRUM, WE STILL ANTICIPATE SE FRESH SEAS FROM SE FRESH BREEZES
ALONG THE CHICHAGOF/BARANOF AND POW COAST TO RIDE ON TOP THE SW
SWELL. AFTER COORDINATION WITH ENVIRONMENT CANADA, DIXON ENTRANCE
SOUTH OF CLARENCE STRAIT COULD BE PARTICULARLY ROUGH AS WSW SWELL
MOVES IN FROM THE GULF, AND NEAR- GALE TO GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY
WINDS IMPACT HECATE STRAIT, CREATING CONFUSED SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS,
WITH WINDS INCREASING IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WHILE LYNN CANAL IS SEEING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS, WE ANTICIPATE THAT WINDS WILL BUILD TO 25 KNOTS BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONT PASS ACROSS THE REGION. SIMPLY
PUT, WHILE WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THURSDAY, LYNN CANAL LOOKS TO HOLD ON TO
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS LONGER.
HYDROLOGY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE EARLIER TODAY AND IS SLOWLY TRACKING EAST. AS OF THIS
WRITING AT 1PM, AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE YAKUTAT
AREA AND AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. GENERALLY LESS THAN A 0.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.
AMOUNTS LIKE THIS OVER THE LAST DAY-OR-SO ARE WELL WITHIN ARIS OF
1 YEAR RETURN INTERVALS. SO WHILE RIVERS IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN, THE CURRENT
FORECASTS KEEP RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGES THOUGH SOME RIVERS
REACHING BANKFUL ARE POSSIBLE.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE BAND OF RAIN WILL TRACK SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN HALF. EVEN WITH
THE ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH TOMORROW, NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-036-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...AP
HYDROLOGY...GJS
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