203
FXAK67 PAJK 111315
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
515 AM AKDT THU SEP 11 2025
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT / THE WEATHER FRONT HAS
CLEARED ROUGHLY 2/3 OF THE PANHANDLE AS OF EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH BAND OF HEAVIER RAINS FROM KLAWOCK TO PETERSBURG.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE FOCUS AREA THIS MORNING FOR THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS. ONSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE
FOCUSED IN THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST WHILE, MORE 'SCATTERED'
SHOWERS FOR THE BARANOF AND CHICHAGOF ISLANDS AND THEN INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WET REMAINS THE MAIN WORD OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
GULF CONTINUING TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO YAKUTAT.
- THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF GET A SHORT BREAK THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE THE NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY
DETAILS: THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF
AND DISSIPATES. RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY, BUT TIMES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AROUND YAKUTAT. TIMES
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
BUT CONFIDENCE FOR A BREAK ON SATURDAY SEEM MORE LIKELY DUE TO A
RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR
MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS. FOR WINDS, AN
OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NORTHEAST
GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AREAS UP TO 25 KTS FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH. THE INSIDE WATERS WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A DIMINISHING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN LYNN CANAL.
A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH, MAINLY
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. CURRENTLY, THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE ALLOWING FOR NO IMPACTS BEING EXPECTED
WITH MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, THE KETCHIKAN AREA HAS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF 0.1 INCHES OF
RAIN FALLING IN 6 HOURS. AT THIS TIME, THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES, DUE
TO A SHORT LIVED RIDGE LOCATED IN THE GULF.
LASTLY, THE NEXT LARGER FRONT REACHES THE PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF.
CURRENTLY, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS OUR CURRENT STORM,
BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE AROUND 990MB WITH STRONG
BREEZES TO NEAR GALES OF 22 TO 33 KTS IN THE GULF. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE TO SEE WHERE THE LARGEST IMACTS WILL OCCUR.
AVIATION
THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED INTO THE PANHANDLE WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN NOW LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS OF 4AM
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE PANHANDLE WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT,
THOUGH LOW CLOUDS IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL STICK
AROUND FOR A BIT THURSDAY MORNING. CIGS AOB 1000 FT ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
WHILE THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY SEE SIMILARLY LOW
CIGS LAST A BIT LONGER. FOR THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS, EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WHILE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING CONTINUED SHOWERS TO THE
OUTER COAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG
IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE GONE FROM ALL TAF
SITES BY 18Z.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COAST):
SPEED DROPPING OFF AS THE FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL
ZONES AND STAYING THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE, PRIMARILY 15 TO 20. THE
SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF SO BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11 FT
IN THE GULF AND TO THE COASTLINES.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS, WITH
WINDS INCREASING IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WHILE LYNN CANAL IS SEEING 25 KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONT
PASS ACROSS THE REGION. SIMPLY PUT, WHILE WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THURSDAY, LYNN
CANAL LOOKS TO HOLD ON TO ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS LONGER.
HYDROLOGY
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE LATE WEDNESDAY AND IS SLOWLY TRACKING EAST. AS OF 3AM,
AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE YAKUTAT AREA AND AROUND
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
GENERALLY LESS THAN A 0.75 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF. SO WHILE
RIVERS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO THE
RAIN, THE CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGES THOUGH
SOME RIVERS REACHING BANKFUL DID HAPPEN.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE BAND OF RAIN WILL TRACK SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN HALF. EVEN WITH
THE ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH TOMORROW, NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-036-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...BEZENEK
HYDROLOGY...BEZENEK
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