907
FXAK67 PAJK 111849 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1049 AM AKDT THU SEP 11 2025
UPDATE
UPDATE FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM.../ THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT / THE WEATHER FRONT HAS
CLEARED ROUGHLY 2/3 OF THE PANHANDLE AS OF EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH BAND OF HEAVIER RAINS FROM KLAWOCK TO PETERSBURG.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE FOCUS AREA THIS MORNING FOR THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS. ONSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE
FOCUSED IN THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST WHILE, MORE 'SCATTERED'
SHOWERS FOR THE BARANOF AND CHICHAGOF ISLANDS AND THEN INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WET REMAINS THE MAIN WORD OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
GULF CONTINUING TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO YAKUTAT.
- THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF GET A SHORT BREAK THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE THE NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY
DETAILS: THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF
AND DISSIPATES. RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY, BUT TIMES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AROUND YAKUTAT. TIMES
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
BUT CONFIDENCE FOR A BREAK ON SATURDAY SEEM MORE LIKELY DUE TO A
RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR
MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS. FOR WINDS, AN
OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NORTHEAST
GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AREAS UP TO 25 KTS FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH. THE INSIDE WATERS WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A DIMINISHING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN LYNN CANAL.
A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH, MAINLY
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. CURRENTLY, THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE ALLOWING FOR NO IMPACTS BEING EXPECTED
WITH MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, THE KETCHIKAN AREA HAS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF 0.1 INCHES OF
RAIN FALLING IN 6 HOURS. AT THIS TIME, THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES, DUE
TO A SHORT LIVED RIDGE LOCATED IN THE GULF.
LASTLY, THE NEXT LARGER FRONT REACHES THE PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF.
CURRENTLY, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS OUR CURRENT STORM,
BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE AROUND 990MB WITH STRONG
BREEZES TO NEAR GALES OF 22 TO 33 KTS IN THE GULF. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE TO SEE WHERE THE LARGEST IMACTS WILL OCCUR.
AVIATION...\18Z TAF ISSUANCE\ HEAVY TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO
PLAGUE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM PETERSBURG AND KLAWOCK
SOUTHWARD. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS (DONE TO 500 FT) AND VIS (DOWN TO
1 1/2 MILE) HAVE BEEN FREQUENT WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN. THOSE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FARTHER NORTH SHOWERS
HAVE TAKEN OVER WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE SHOWERS
BUT CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR WHEN THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
INTO TONIGHT CONDITIONS MAY START TO LOWER AGAIN LATE DUE TO
POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS OR EVEN FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO ALL THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LOW, EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN LYNN AND
SKAGWAY WHERE 15 TO 25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT, AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WHERE SOME WINDS TO 20 KT ARE BLOWING UNDER THE FRONTAL
BAND THAT IS THERE.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COAST):
SPEED DROPPING OFF AS THE FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL
ZONES AND STAYING THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE, PRIMARILY 15 TO 20. THE
SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF SO BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11 FT
IN THE GULF AND TO THE COASTLINES.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS, WITH
WINDS INCREASING IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WHILE LYNN CANAL IS SEEING 25 KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONT
PASS ACROSS THE REGION. SIMPLY PUT, WHILE WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THURSDAY, LYNN
CANAL LOOKS TO HOLD ON TO ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AT LEAST.
HYDROLOGY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE LATE WEDNESDAY AND IS SLOWLY TRACKING EAST. AS OF 3AM,
AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE YAKUTAT AREA AND AROUND
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
GENERALLY LESS THAN A 0.75 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF. SO WHILE
RIVERS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO THE
RAIN, THE CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGES THOUGH
SOME RIVERS REACHING BANKFUL DID HAPPEN.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE BAND OF RAIN WILL TRACK SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN HALF. EVEN WITH
THE ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH TOMORROW, NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-036-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
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