126
FXAK67 PAJK 121825
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1025 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2025
UPDATE...TO ADD THE 18Z AVIATION SECTION
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT / THE SURFACE LOW IS
LINGERING NEAR THE KENAI PENINSULA AND CLOUD ROTATION ABOUT THE
LOW IS SENDING THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
REGION AND THEN ALONG THE COAST LINE. THE PREFERRED LOCATION FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST, AND A
LESSER CHANCE FOR THE PANHANDLE AREA. SUFFICIENT COOL AIR ABOUT
THE LOW CENTER ALOFT HAS LEAD TO A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THAT OCCASIONAL FORMS ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THE AROUND THE YAKUTAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS RESULTED IN POCKETS OF THE FOG
FORMING BEING REPORTED IN THE GENERALLY TYPICAL LOCATIONS LIKE
PETERSBURG, KLAWOCK AND TO LESSER EXTENT, HOONAH AND KETCHIKAN
AREAS. PETERSBURG AND KLAWOCK HAD PERIODS WHERE THE VISIBILITIES
LOWERS TO UNDER 1/2 MILE, SO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
THOSE AREAS UNTIL 10 AM.
LONG TERM
FOR THE START OF SATURDAY, THE RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE, SPECIFICALLY FOR THE NE GULF COAST DOWN
TOWARDS THE OUTER COAST NEAR CAPE SPENCER AND POTENTIALLY DOWN TO
SITKA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND OF
RAIN SO THERE COULD BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS AS IT GETS CLOSER.
FARTHER SOUTH, DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION. ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY HAVE
THE STRONGEST BAND OF RAIN IMPACTING BRITISH COLUMBIA WHILE PLACES
LIKE KETCHIKAN COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS BAND. AS WE
HEAD INTO SUNDAY, MOST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FOR
PANHANDLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POTENTIAL SHOWERS FOR THE NE
GULF COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY HOURS SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE,
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE BRINGING A
BREAK TO THE AREA FROM THE RAINS AND WIND SEEN THIS WEEK. BUT THIS
BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
AREA IS ALREADY EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS WELL AS STRENGTH. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED
SOMEWHAT IN THE ENSEMBLES AS WELL WITH THERE BEING A WEAKER
SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW MOVING INTO
THE GULF AND AFFECTING THE PANHANDLE IS HIGH BUT THE EXPECTED
IMPACTS IS LOWER DUE TO THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. THIS IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING GALE
FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF WATERS FROM CAPE EDGECUMBE NORTHWARD.
BESIDES THE WIND, ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS AROUND A MODERATE LEVEL TOO BUT
IT IS HIGHER THAN THE WINDS. IF THE MOISTURE DOES MOVE INTO THE
AREA, IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE
AREA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AGAIN
BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE BERING AND ALASKAN PENINSULA
THAT LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS ARE LOW AT THE
TIME AS THERE IS DISAGREEMENT FOR THE TIME BEING.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 18Z SATURDAY/
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE
FOR THE NE GULF COAST AREA, INCLUDING PAYA, THROUGH THE 24-HOUR
TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. AREAS NORTH OF PAPG &
SE OF PAYA SHOULD PRIMARILY STAY IN THE VFR CATEGORY. FOR THE
SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE PANHANDLE, INCLUDING PAPG, PAWG, PAKT, & PAKW,
THEY LOOK TO HAVE SOME FG MOVE BACK IN TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DOWN
TO AROUND THE IFR CATEGORY, PERHAPS PERIODICALLY DIPPING DOWN INTO
THE LIFR CATEGORY. AS FAR AS SFC WINDS ARE CONCERNED, THE NORTHERN
1/3 OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE A BIT BREEZY / GUSTY DURING THE DAY,
FRIDAY, OUT OF THE SE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS NOT FULLY
RELAXED, YET. LLWS VALUES ARE RELATIVELY BENIGN FOR EVERYWHERE,
EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF COAST AREA, INCLUDING PAYA, WHERE THEY
COULD EXPERIENCE UP TO AROUND 30 KT SOUTHERLY LLWS CANTERED UP
AT AROUND 2 KFT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: LARGELY 15 TO 20 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
MAJORITY OF THE GULF AS THE LOW LINGERS ALONG THE NW COASTLINE
NEAR KODIAK. THE SE GULF COASTLINE WEST OF POW IS LARGELY 5 TO 10
KTS AND WILL STAY DIMINISHED AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND HAIDA GWAII. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND UP
ALONG THE NE GULF COASTLINE, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW ALONGSIDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TO ONLY 10 TO 15 KT AS THE LOW WEAKENS. 9 TO 12 FT
SEAS TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH INTO TOMORROW, LASTING LONGEST ALONG
THE NE COAST BEFORE DROPPING TO 6 TO 8 FT BY TOMORROW NIGHT. W
SWELL OF 3 TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WITH A DOMINANT WAVE
PERIOD OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS EXPECTED.
INSIDE WATERS: MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SEE
SOME MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES (15 KT) THIS EVENING AS THE LOW IN
THE NW GULF CREATES A TIGHTENED GRADIENT WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WILL CONTINUE
SEEING 10 TO 20 KT FRIDAY. THE E-W GRADIENT REMAINS PARTICULARLY
TIGHTENED OVER CROSS SOUND AND ICY STRAIT, BRINGING LARGELY 15 KT
E TO SE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN CHANNELS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND
WILL REMAIN LARGELY LIGHT AND UNDER 10 KTS FRIDAY AS THE RIDGING
DEVELOPS, AND AS THE NEXT WAVE IMPACTS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE IN TERMS OF WIND IMPACTS. SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR FOLLOWING SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
LARGELY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS. MAY HAVE AREAS
OF MORNING FOG CREATING VISIBILITY ISSUES ON THE WATERS FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...BEZENEK
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