765
FXAK67 PAJK 130001
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
401 PM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SHORT TERM
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM CELLS CONTINUE
POPPING UP ALONG THE GULF COASTLINE, BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS ALONGSIDE SOME 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS. THESE LOOK TO
CONTINUE PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE GULF WATERS, WITH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAKING IT ONSHORE FROM BARANOF ISLAND UP ALONG THE
COASTLINE TO YAKUTAT AND ICY BAY. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES STILL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA ALONGSIDE CAPE VALUES OF 300-400 J/KG SEEN
ON NUCAPS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS, BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN
FURTHER. SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR THE NE GULF COAST
AROUND YAKUTAT INTO TOMORROW BEFORE CHANCES DECREASE BY TOMORROW
NIGHT. A WEAK LOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BRING SOME RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN AND INLAND PARTS
OF THE PANHANDLE, HOWEVER THE RIDGING ALONG THE COAST AND
PANHANDLE WILL NOT ENABLE THIS MOISTURE TO PUSH FAR INTO THE
PANHANDLE, GIVING ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG KETCHIKAN AND THE
HIGHEST CHANCES BEING AROUND HYDER. OTHERWISE, RAIN SHOWERS AND
WINDS ALIKE WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME
CLEARER SKIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, OUTSIDE OF
THE NE GULF COAST AND THE FAR SOUTHERN MORE INLAND PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLE THAT WILL SEE SOME HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE PANHANDLE
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS TO START THE WEEK.
- WINDS INCREASE TO STRONG GALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
DETAILS: FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT WINDS ALONG THE
GULF WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS
OF 35 TO 45 KTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
CURRENTLY THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE FIRST SOLUTION HAS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING FARTHER WEST
IN THE GULF. THIS SOLUTION WILL ALLOW FOR LESS RAIN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING ALONG THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AND RAIN TOTALS AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES. THE OTHER SOLUTION
HAS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN GULF. IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER NORTH, WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.
BOTH SOLUTIONS ALLOW FOR GULF WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WINDS
OF 35 TO 45 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
STRONGEST INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KTS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN CROSS SOUND INTO THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. IF THE
LOW TRACK CONTINUES TO STAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF, AND POSITION
ITSELF SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE, STRONGER WINDS CAN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY, LAND WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH IN YAKUTAT AND SITKA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRACK
AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE PANHANDLE TO SEE
WHERE THE LARGEST IMACTS WILL OCCUR. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AGAIN BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BERING AND ALASKAN PENINSULA IN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY/
THE NE GULF COAST AREA, INCLUDING
PAYA, WILL EXPERIENCE AROUND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR
TAF PERIOD DUE TO LOWERED CLOUD CIGS & SHOWERS REDUCING VISS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, INCLUDING THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR, SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE VFR CATEGORY OR VERY CLOSE TO
IT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE STARTS OUR FOR
THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS WITH VCSH. FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL &
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS, DECREASING VISS LOOK TO LOWER THOSE
LOCATIONS TO WITHIN THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT, IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL START OUT GUSTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NORTHERN PANHANDLE AREAS, INCLUDING
PAYA, PAGS, & PAHN & REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PANHANDLE FROM THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, SOUTHEASTWARD. AS
FAR AS LLWS IS CONCERNED, PAYA LOOKS TO HAVE VALUES OF AROUND 30
KT OUT OF A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, CENTERED AT AROUND 2
KT FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: ELEVATED 15 TO 20 KT WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE
OUTER COASTLINE AROUND THE WEAKENING LOW, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
10-15 KT BY LATER TONIGHT. SOME WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN ALONG THE SE
GULF COASTLINE BRINGING SOME WEAKER WINDS ALONG THE COASTLINE
BEFORE THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM MOVES IN STARTING SUNDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER EXISTS FOR THE COASTLINE INTO LATER TONIGHT,
BRINGING SOME 35 KT GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH. 7 TO 8 FT SEAS TONIGHT DIMINISH TO 4 TO 5 FT SEAS
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH THE W SWELL OF 2 TO 4 FT LASTING
UNTIL TOMORROW ALONGSIDE A DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD OF 7 TO 10
SECONDS.
INSIDE WATERS: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS TONIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
CONTINUING TO SEE 15 TO 20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS LASTING THROUGH
TONIGHT AND ONLY DIMINISHING BY MORNING. ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
STEPHENS PASSAGE INCLUDING SCULL ISLAND AND GRAVE POINT CONTINUE
TO SEE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS AS WELL, AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CLARENCE STRAIT WILL BECOME CALM BY TONIGHT
AND SWITCH TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS THE RIDGING DEVELOPS
ALONG THE COASTLINE TOMORROW, BEFORE PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND
15 KTS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE
INNER CHANNELS WILL REMAIN LARGELY 10 KTS OR LESS, WITH MANY AREAS
BECOMING LIGHT BY TOMORROW MORNING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...CONTINO
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...CONTINO
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