821
FXAK67 PAJK 130604
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1004 PM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2025
UPDATE
UPDATE AVIATION SECTION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM...RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM CELLS CONTINUE
POPPING UP ALONG THE GULF COASTLINE, BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS ALONGSIDE SOME 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS. THESE LOOK TO
CONTINUE PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE GULF WATERS, WITH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAKING IT ONSHORE FROM BARANOF ISLAND UP ALONG THE
COASTLINE TO YAKUTAT AND ICY BAY. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES STILL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA ALONGSIDE CAPE VALUES OF 300-400 J/KG SEEN
ON NUCAPS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS, BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN
FURTHER. SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR THE NE GULF COAST
AROUND YAKUTAT INTO TOMORROW BEFORE CHANCES DECREASE BY TOMORROW
NIGHT. A WEAK LOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BRING SOME RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN AND INLAND PARTS
OF THE PANHANDLE, HOWEVER THE RIDGING ALONG THE COAST AND
PANHANDLE WILL NOT ENABLE THIS MOISTURE TO PUSH FAR INTO THE
PANHANDLE, GIVING ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG KETCHIKAN AND THE
HIGHEST CHANCES BEING AROUND HYDER. OTHERWISE, RAIN SHOWERS AND
WINDS ALIKE WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME
CLEARER SKIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, OUTSIDE OF
THE NE GULF COAST AND THE FAR SOUTHERN MORE INLAND PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLE THAT WILL SEE SOME HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM...KEY MESSAGES:
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE PANHANDLE
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS TO START THE WEEK.
- WINDS INCREASE TO STRONG GALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
DETAILS: FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT WINDS ALONG THE
GULF WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS
OF 35 TO 45 KTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. CURRENTLY THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE FIRST SOLUTION HAS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING FARTHER WEST IN THE GULF. THIS SOLUTION WILL
ALLOW FOR LESS RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
FALLING ALONG THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND RAIN TOTALS AROUND
1 TO 3 INCHES. THE OTHER SOLUTION HAS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. IF THE LOW TRACKS
FARTHER NORTH, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.
BOTH SOLUTIONS ALLOW FOR GULF WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WINDS
OF 35 TO 45 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
STRONGEST INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KTS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN CROSS SOUND INTO THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. IF THE
LOW TRACK CONTINUES TO STAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF, AND POSITION
ITSELF SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE, STRONGER WINDS CAN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY, LAND WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH IN YAKUTAT AND SITKA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRACK
AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE PANHANDLE TO SEE
WHERE THE LARGEST IMACTS WILL OCCUR. WHILE THIS LOW SPINS IN THE
WESTERN GULF NEAR KODIAK ISLAND, OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TRIPLE POINT LOW TO DEVELOP WITH THE SUPPORT OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING NORTHWARD. ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY SHOW A
LOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE TRACKING NORTH
INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS DUE
TO THE PARENT LOW POSITION AS WELL AS TRACK OF THE NEW LOW. BUT IT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP IF THE LOW PASSES CLOSE TO THE COAST AND
THEN MOVES INTO THE YUKON WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENDED PATTERN HEADED
INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AND ACTIVE
WITH MORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE AREA KEEPING UP THE
FALL PATTERN FOR SE AK.
AVIATION.../6Z TAF ISSUANCE/ MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THAT ARE IN THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS DOWN TO 1500 FT
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT TIMES, AND THE NE GULF COAST N AND W OF
SITKA WHERE FREQUENT SHOWERS COMING INLAND FROM THE GULF ARE
BRINGING CEILINGS AND SOMETIMES VIS DOWN TO IFR ESPECIALLY AT
YAKUTAT. THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL MAINLY FOCUS ON THE SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE NE GULF COAST WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FREQUENT WITH
THESE SHOWERS WITH YAKUTAT BEING THE MAIN RECIPIENT. WE HAVE ALSO
OBSERVED SOME LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS AROUND THE
YAKUTAT BAY AREA THIS EVENING. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY BE
DEALING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR VIS AND
CEILINGS IN SOME LOCATIONS LATE BEFORE DIMINISHING TOMORROW
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING TO VFR
FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE WATERS: ELEVATED 15 TO 20 KT WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE
OUTER COASTLINE AROUND THE WEAKENING LOW, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
10-15 KT BY LATER TONIGHT. SOME WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN ALONG THE SE
GULF COASTLINE BRINGING SOME WEAKER WINDS ALONG THE COASTLINE
BEFORE THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM MOVES IN STARTING SUNDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER EXISTS FOR THE COASTLINE INTO LATER TONIGHT,
BRINGING SOME 35 KT GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH. 7 TO 8 FT SEAS TONIGHT DIMINISH TO 4 TO 5 FT SEAS
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH THE W SWELL OF 2 TO 4 FT LASTING
UNTIL TOMORROW ALONGSIDE A DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD OF 7 TO 10
SECONDS.
INSIDE WATERS: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS TONIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
CONTINUING TO SEE 15 TO 20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS LASTING THROUGH
TONIGHT AND ONLY DIMINISHING BY MORNING. ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
STEPHENS PASSAGE INCLUDING SCULL ISLAND AND GRAVE POINT CONTINUE
TO SEE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS AS WELL, AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CLARENCE STRAIT WILL BECOME CALM BY TONIGHT
AND SWITCH TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS THE RIDGING DEVELOPS
ALONG THE COASTLINE TOMORROW, BEFORE PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND
15 KTS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE
INNER CHANNELS WILL REMAIN LARGELY 10 KTS OR LESS, WITH MANY AREAS
BECOMING LIGHT BY TOMORROW MORNING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ643.
SHORT TERM...CONTINO
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...CONTINO
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