606
FXAK67 PAJK 131414 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
537 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2025
UPDATE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE SPREADING, AND HAS MOVED INTO KAKE,
SO EXPANDED ADVISORY INTO THE KAKE AREA AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / LIGHT WINDS, BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS, AND FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE. WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER 1/2
MILE HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
EASTERN KUPREANOF ISLAND AND AROUND WRANGELL. FOG EXTENDS OUT
FORM THERE, BUT CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER.
A WEAK RESIDUAL LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS DIRECTING ONSHORE
FLOW INTO THE COASTLINE NORTH OF CAPE EDGECUMBE TO THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SKIMMING ALONG THE
COAST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN, AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE PANHANDLE
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS TO START THE WEEK.
- WINDS INCREASE TO STRONG GALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
DETAILS: FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT WINDS ALONG THE
GULF WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS
OF 35 TO 45 KTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. CURRENTLY THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE FIRST SOLUTION HAS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING FARTHER WEST IN THE GULF. THIS
SOLUTION WILL ALLOW FOR LESS RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING ALONG THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
RAIN TOTALS AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES. THE OTHER SOLUTION HAS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF.
IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER NORTH, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES.
BOTH SOLUTIONS ALLOW FOR GULF WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WINDS
OF 35 TO 45 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
STRONGEST INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KTS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN CROSS SOUND INTO THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. IF THE
LOW TRACK CONTINUES TO STAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF, AND POSITION
ITSELF SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE, STRONGER WINDS CAN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY, LAND WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH IN YAKUTAT AND SITKA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRACK
AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE PANHANDLE TO SEE
WHERE THE LARGEST IMACTS WILL OCCUR.
WHILE THIS LOW SPINS IN THE WESTERN GULF NEAR KODIAK ISLAND, OUR
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRIPLE POINT LOW TO
DEVELOP WITH THE SUPPORT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
NORTHWARD. ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE TRACKING NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS DUE TO THE PARENT LOW
POSITION AS WELL AS TRACK OF THE NEW LOW. BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TO DEVELOP IF THE LOW PASSES CLOSE TO THE COAST AND THEN
MOVES INTO THE YUKON WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENDED PATTERN HEADED INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AND ACTIVE WITH
MORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE AREA KEEPING UP THE FALL
PATTERN FOR SE AK.
AVIATION
THE REMNANTS OF SHOWERS ARE STILL PUSHING THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SOME AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE JUMPING
BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS. YAKUTAT HAS BEEN
FEELING THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, WITH
SHOWERS HEAVY AT TIMES AND DROPPING CIGS AND VIS TO IFR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AND RAIN WILL STOP,
BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR. A MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND SITKA ARE SEEING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOA 5000 FT, THOUGH OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO
MVFR AS THE SHOWERS PASS OVER. HAINES IS THE ONLY LOCATION
CONTINUOUSLY EXPERIENCING THIS DROP, THOUGH THE LOWER CLOUDS ARE
THREATENING TO PUSH INTO SKAGWAY AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL RISE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, ALMOST ENTIRELY CLEARING OUT FOR THE DAY.
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ARE CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING DENSE FOG DOWN TO 1/4SM THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, AND IS EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE MORNING. KETCHIKAN HAS
BEEN NARROWLY AVOIDING THIS DROP IN CATEGORY ALL NIGHT, THOUGH A
LOWERING BROKEN LAYER IS THREATENING TO DROP CIGS TO IFR
CONDITIONS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY CLEAR OUT FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS,
THOUGH WITH THE INCREASED SUNSHINE, SEA BREEZES MAY START TO PICK
UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME LESS OF A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH YAKUTAT WAS SEEING SOME LIGHT LLWS BETWEEN 500
AND 1000 FT EARLY THIS MORNING.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: WINDS ALONG THE OUTER COASTLINE DIMINISHING TO 10-15
KT BY LATER TONIGHT. SOME WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN ALONG THE SE GULF
COASTLINE BRINGING SOME WEAKER WINDS ALONG THE COASTLINE BEFORE THE
NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM MOVES IN STARTING SUNDAY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. 7
TO 8 FT SEAS TONIGHT DIMINISH TO 4 TO 5 FT SEAS THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT, WITH THE W SWELL OF 2 TO 4 FT LASTING UNTIL TOMORROW
ALONGSIDE A DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD OF 7 TO 10 SECONDS.
INSIDE WATERS: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS TONIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
CONTINUING TO SEE 15 TO 20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS LASTING THROUGH
TONIGHT AND ONLY DIMINISHING BY MORNING. ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
STEPHENS PASSAGE INCLUDING SCULL ISLAND AND GRAVE POINT CONTINUE TO
SEE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS AS WELL, AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. CLARENCE STRAIT WILL BECOME WILL START NEAR CALM WITH
A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS THE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COASTLINE SATURDAY, BEFORE PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS WILL
REMAIN LARGELY 10 KTS OR LESS, WITH MANY AREAS BECOMING LIGHT.
SATURDAY HAS AN AREA OF FOG FROM COMMUNITIES AND OUT INTO EASTERN
FREDERICK SOUND AND SUMNER STRAIT. VISIBILITIES ARE 1 NM OR LESS FOR
SECTIONS OF THOSE MARINE WATERS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ326-328-
329.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...BEZENEK
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