334
FXAK67 PAJK 140550 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
950 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2025
UPDATE
UPDATE AVIATION SECTION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, A MIXTURE OF REMNANT MARINE LAYER LOW STRATUS &
FOG AS WELL AS SOME RADIATION FOG ARE POSSIBLE, ONCE AGAIN, FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN PANHANDLE & INNER CHANNELS AS
WE REMAIN UNDER A RELATIVELY DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS & LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD & LESS
DENSE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA, BECAUSE A BKN TO OVC DECK OF
CLOUDS FROM A TROUGH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THAT
AREA TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY INSULATING THOSE AREAS THAT SAW DENSE
FOG LAST NIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THEIR TEMPERATURES MORE ABOVE THEIR
DEWPOINTS.
FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A STORM FORCE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTS PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLE,
WHICH WILL BRING PROLONGED WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
& WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL & WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL START LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS NEARER TO THE
OUTER COAST & THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. SEE THE LONG
TERM SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS AS THIS SYSTEM IS SPLIT BETWEEN THE
TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM & LONG TERM SECTIONS WITH MOST OF IT
SPANNING THE LONG TERM SECTION.
LONG TERM...KEY MESSAGES: VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED. THE STEERING PATTERN WILL REMAIN
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
- A STORM FORCE LOW SWEEPS NORTH BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE
NE GULF, AND HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.
-ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING NORTH ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST SYSTEM
DELIVERS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.
-A GALE FORCE LOW SPINS UP AND MOVES ACROSS THE OUTER GULF COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INNER MOUNTAIN
AREAS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
-ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
-A GALE FORCE SYSTEM ENTERS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DETAILS: A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW NO
SIGN OF ABATING ANYTIME SOON, AS A BROAD AREA OF LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE GULF (ROSSBY WAVE) SEES CONTINUED SYSTEMS SWEEPING INTO
THE PANHANDLE. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT WINDS ALONG
THE GULF WATERS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE OR NEAR STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 45 - 50 KT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LOW STAYING FURTHER WEST INTO THE GULF OF AK.
THIS SOLUTION WILL ALLOW FOR LESS RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING ALONG THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND RAIN
TOTALS AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES. ALONGSIDE GULF WINDS STRENGTHENING TO
45-50 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE GULF COAST, ALSO ANTICIPATE INNER
CHANNEL WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TO 25 - 30 KT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS. IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT WINDS OVER LAND MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FOR MANY OVERLAND
LOCATIONS LIKELY TO REACH 20 TO 25 KT, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER GULF COAST, THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
AND JUNEAU.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE PANHANDLE, AS AFTER INITIALLY
PUSHING INLAND, ITS EASTERN FLANK WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD, SLOWLY MOVING BACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, AND SENDING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE NOW-WESTWARD
MOVING FRONT, A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR PARTS
OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY AS
MOISTURE THAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE FLOWING NORTHWARD IS BRIEFLY
PULLED BACK TO THE SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW.
THIS TRIPLE POINT LOW IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BRING AT
LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS IT RACES
NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND BRINGING ONSHORE FLOW
IN ITS WAKE - LEADING TO MORE RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER,
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER GALE FORCE SYSTEM FRIDAY. THIS LATTER
SYSTEM COULD BRING WITH IT A PLUME OF MOISTURE, AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY TO THE NE GULF COAST. ENSEMBLES
HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO LOCK ONTO THE CHANCE OF A STRONG SYSTEM FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
FEATURE REMAIN MURKY THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING SO FAR. THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG RETURNING OVER NIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS REMAINS LIKELY. KLAWOCK IS ALREADY
SEEING A LOWER CLOUD LAYER DEVELOPING WITH 800 FT CEILINGS
OBSERVED THERE AS OF 9 PM. IN AREAS THAT SEE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS,
IFR OR LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS ARE LIKELY WHICH COULD LAST INTO THE
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. FOR
AREAS THAT DON'T SEE FOG, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL
RULE INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE WATERS: A STORM FORCE FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS
PUSHING ITS WAY THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS IT APPROACHES THE OUTER COAST,
EXPECT HIGH END GALES TO LOW END STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS INTO
MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF
BETWEEN NEAR CAPE EDGECUMBE & CAPE SUCKLING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES & MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO
PEAK OUT AT AROUND 20 TO 28 FT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE FRONT DRIFTS BACK
WESTWARD AS WE APPROACH MIDWEEK, A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT REENTERS THE EASTERN GULF & PUSH NORTHWARD, BRINGING
MORE GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE EASTERN GULF WATERS.
INNER CHANNELS: AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, EXPECT BETWEEN SMALL CRAFT(23 TO < 33
KT) & UP TO LOW END GALE FORCE(35 TO < 40 KT) WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ALASKAN INNER CHANNELS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU GO. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF BETWEEN
AROUND 4 AND 7 FT ARE LIKELY WITH HIGHER VALUES NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. UP TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE, AS WELL.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ661.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...JLC
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